Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts

Sunday 5 November 2023

Oil posts weekly loss despite geopolitical risks

According to Reuters, crude oil prices settled more than 2% lower on Friday as supply concerns driven by Middle East tensions eased, while jobs data raised expectations the US Federal Reserve could be done hiking interest rates in the biggest oil consuming economy.

Brent crude futures were down 2.3%, to US$84.89 a barrel. WTI futures also declined 2.4%, to US$80.51 a barrel. Both the benchmarks settled down more than 6% on the week.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, speaking for the first time since the Israel-Hamas war erupted, warned on Friday that a wider conflict in the Middle East was possible but did not commit to opening another front on Israel's border with Lebanon.

"The market is taking this conflict in its stride, as it looks to be neither a significant demand or supply disruption event," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

US job growth slowed more than expected in October, while wage inflation cooled, pointing to an easing in labor market conditions.

The data bolstered the view that the Federal Reserve need not raise interest rates further.

The Fed held interest rates steady this week, while the Bank of England kept rates at a 15-year peak, supporting oil prices as some risk appetite returned to markets.

A private sector survey on Friday showed that while China's services activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in October, sales grew at the softest rate in 10 months and employment stagnated as business confidence waned.

The data followed a reading from the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday that showed China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in October.

On the supply side, Saudi Arabia is expected to reconfirm an extension of its voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day through December 2023, based on analyst expectations.

The US House of Representatives easily passed a bill to bolster sanctions on Iranian oil in a strong bipartisan vote, but it was unclear how effective the legislation would be if signed into law.

While Congress can pass sanctions legislation, such measures often come with national security waivers that allow presidents discretion in applying the law.

China could also continue to import the oil despite new sanctions.

US energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating to their lowest since February 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.

Saturday 22 April 2023

China’s Middle East Strategy

The Middle East’s emergence as a key front in the new Cold War between the United States and China has become even prominent. Bloomberg believes that Beijing is making efforts to widen the breach between Washington and Saudi Arabia.

China has put its stamp on the region in a way that could hardly have been guessed six months ago, notably by brokering a rapprochement between longtime regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. Remarkably, China Foreign Minister Qin Gang this week launched an effort at encouraging a restart of Israel-Palestine talks.

On the finance front, the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) opened its first overseas office this week—in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The hub is to serve as a strategic destination supporting the agenda of the AIIB—a multilateral development bank conceived almost a decade ago as China’s answer to institutions set up by Western nations.

This followed the shock in Washington when Saudi Arabia and its fellow OPEC P members not only rejected a US request for production increases, but cut output earlier this month.

It’s become inescapable that the Middle East—and specifically a Saudi Arabia led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—is rapidly departing Washington’s orbit in favor of Beijing.

Still, the Middle East’s exchange-rate pegs to the dollar remain a powerful link to America, as do its strong, enduring military ties. So for the US government, all is not lost—yet.

The US dollar remains by far the most powerful force in the global financial system, even if its share of central bank reserves has been waning. And that confers on Washington inimitable power, the threat to impede access to the currency.

That’s the reason the Gulf Cooperation Council members’ use of the dollar as the key currency of cross-border exchange—and not Beijing-sponsored diplomacy—is the ultimate gauge of the council’s geo-economic alignment. A sudden change would be destabilizing for the countries themselves, so any shift would have to be gradual.

But signs of movement are there. Just last month, the UAE made the first settlement of natural gas exports to China denominated in Chinese yuan. That’s an especially interesting precedent after China’s landmark US$60 billion deal in November 2023 for liquefied natural gas from the UAE’s fellow GCC member, Qatar.

That Qatar deal, which saw European buyers pipped for crucial long-term energy supplies, is designed to last until the 2050s. 

“Chinese state-owned energy companies historically did not have the expertise to compete on an equal footing with Western energy companies,” said Justin Dargin, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East specialist. “This contract highlights how the situation is rapidly evolving.”

Indeed, one thing to watch for is how the currency aspect of the deal unfolds. Shifting approaches toward currencies are also apparent in Saudi Arabia, which was the largest supplier of crude oil to China until Russia displaced it earlier this year.

Riyadh had telegraphed to Beijing in January 2023 that it’s open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the dollar—which is currently used to settle more than 80% of Saudi Arabia’s US$326 billion in annual oil exports, according to Eurizon SLJ Capital calculations.

In addition to becoming the Middle East’s key customer, China is also being approached for more investments of its own. This week, the UAE’s minister of industry and advanced technology, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, was in Beijing seeking to bolster clean-energy cooperation.

That trip came after China and Saudi Arabia signed a number of agreements on renewable and green-hydrogen cooperation during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit in December 2023. And it comes ahead of the UAE hosting COP28, the United Nations climate summit (which Al Jaber, despite presiding over a massive fossil-fuel exporter, is overseeing).

Analysts at Trivium China, a policy research consultancy in Beijing, lent support to Xi’s move into the Middle East. Those green deals enable Chinese clean-tech firms to expand into lucrative foreign markets and strengthen economic and diplomatic ties with major Gulf swing states, they wrote.

While Beijing’s effort at diplomacy should be viewed as less important than currency considerations, there’s a third arena where Washington may wish to remain most vigilant, if it wishes to forestall displacement from the Middle East stage.

What hasn’t yet been seen from China yet is any big headline on a military connection to the Persian Gulf—whose sea lanes have long been overseen by the US. 

 

Tuesday 18 April 2023

India and Russia to tap full potential of economic relationship

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement that the 24th India-Russia Inter-governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation was held in New Delhi on April 17-18. Both the countries agreed to unlock full potential of bilateral trade and economic relationship.

Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Trade and Industry of Russia Denis Manturov, who arrived in Indian capital Monday heading a high-level delegation comprising senior officials from several Russian ministries, co-chaired the 24th session of the Inter-governmental commission.

The Inter-governmental Commission, which is a mechanism for monitoring bilateral progress of trade and economic cooperation between the two countries, agreed to address the trade deficit and market access issues.

The visiting Russian deputy PM also met Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

The India-Russia Business Dialogue was also held on Monday with participation of key businesses from both the countries enabling Jaishankar, Manturov and business leaders to engage and drive the momentum of shared priorities of deeper and wider bilateral commercial cooperation.

Though Indian authorities claim that the visit is in continuation of the regular high-level dialogue between the two nations, it assumes greater importance as New Delhi’s closer ties with Russia even while the latter is engaged in a bloody battle in Ukraine is seen with caution in western capitals.

India has so far resisted Western pressure to condemn Russian aggression and instead expressed concern over the humanitarian crisis arising out of the war and called to resolve all differences through dialogue and diplomatic means.

Jaishankar has said that discussions are on over the payments issue with Russia, referring to the trade in local currencies (rupee-ruble).

“There are discussions on the payments issue under the scheme of international trade settlement in Indian rupees through the special rupee vostro account system.

“And I think the payments issue clearly needs to be worked through between our systems. It is something we will be discussing,” said Jaishankar at the India-Russia Business Dialogue.

The event was organized by the Ministry of External Affairs in partnership with FICCI and the Business Council for Cooperation with India (BCCI). India and Russia have a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.

“For the period between April 2022 and February 2023, bilateral trade was about $45 billion and is expected to grow,” Jaishankar added.

Russia has said that within the framework of the inter-governmental dialogue, they propose to consider the possibility of the wide use of national currencies.

Meanwhile, Russia also wants to take its partnership with India to another level by having a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

“Together with the Eurasian Economic Commission, we are looking forward to intensifying negotiations on the FTA with India.

“Additionally, we are working on signing the Russia-India Bilateral Agreement for the Promotion and Protection of Investments,” said Manturov.

To protect the principles of free trade, Russia has undertaken a set of measures which includes permitting import of original goods without consent of the rights’ owners from unfriendly countries — so-called parallel imports.

“Besides, we’ve launched the program of preferential loans and insurance of Russian importers towards procurement of priority products from foreign countries.

“Among the most demanded goods under this program are components and equipment for road construction, products of chemical and pharmaceutical industries. I am sure that this will create opportunities for Indian companies to increase their supplies to Russia,” Manturov added.

Russia has also invited Indian companies who are keen on joint projects to consider ‘cluster investment platform’.

“This provides preferential credits for designing and manufacturing of priority products, subsidies for pilot batches of goods, insurance premium and income tax preferences.

“As far as certain components and technologies are concerned we will definitely rely on trusted foreign partners. We are working in this manner with our Indian friends for decades,” Manturov added.

Marupov also met National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and discussed a wide range of issues under the India-Russia Strategic Partnership.

Saturday 11 February 2023

Saudi Arabia-United States: Cracks have developed in the marriage of convenience

For decades United States has kept Saudi Arabia subservient to its ‘Foreign Policy Agenda’. However, it was only a cover up the real objective was to keep the largest oil producer under its thumb.

The story began with the discovery of oil in the Kingdom by a US oil giant leading to an agreement that the first customer of its oil will be United States and in exchange the super power will be responsible for the security of the kingdom, precisely the rulers.

When King Faisal, used oil as weapon, the immediate result was his assassination. To keep the rulers constantly under the fear, US coined a mantra after the Islamic Revolution in Iran, “Iran is a bigger threat for Saudi Arabia as compared to Israel”; the prime objective was to sell arms to the Kingdom.

One may recall that Iraq was pampered to attack Iran and the war continued for a decade. There are indications that Saudi Arabia was the biggest financer of war.

The attack on Iran was aimed at stopping its oil export and keep oil prices high to ensure higher revenue for Saudi Arabia, but most of it was extorted by selling arms. The war was followed by imposition of economic sanction on Iran, which are there for more than four decades.

Having Iran pushed out of oil trade, the next target was Iraq. One may recall that the reason for the economic sanctions on Iran was its alleged involvement in the production of atomic bomb. Using the same strategy United States raised a hoax call “Iraq is producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD)” and attacked Iraq. The war is still going on in Iraq and its oil export has remained negligible.

In the meantime to achieve self sufficiency in oil production, United States kept on implementing its “Shale Oil and Gas plan”. During this time oil prices were kept high to achieve two objectives: 1) sell more arms to the Kingdom and 2) lure Saudis to invest in the development of shale technology in the United States.

While United States, may have achieved both the target, Russia emerged as a “Game Spoiler”. It attained the status of one of the biggest oil producers. Russian-Chinese alliance not only changed the composition of oil markets but also influenced the geopolitical landscape.

To tighten its grip on Saudi Arabia, United States implicated the Crown Prince, to be precise defecto King, in a murder case. Donald Trump went to the extent of saying, “If United States takes its hands off the Kingdom will not survive for more than a few weeks”.   

Around the same time United States decided to take an exit from Afghanistan. There was a loud and clear message that Middle East, particularly, Saudi Arabia are no longer area of interest for United States.

This message became louder with the inculcation of Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply of billions of dollars latest and most lethal arms to Ukraine and imposition of economic sanction on Russia.

All these events indicate that the foreign policy of United States is governed by the owners of oil companies (commonly known as seven sisters) and military complexes.

The world also knows the role played by United States in the creation of turmoil in Libya and Venezuela.

Please allow me to sum up my narrative at “United States is no longer considered a trust worthy friend; it installs and topples governments in countries to support its Foreign Policy Agenda”.

 

 

Monday 26 December 2022

Key Event of Maritime Trade in 2022

As year 2022 draws to a close it is pertinent to look back at some of the biggest stories that have been covered by Seatrade Maritime News over the last 12 months. For the readers interest we have chosen six major themes.

Tanker market boom

A geopolitical Black Swan supercharged the tanker market. The risk of a major confrontation between Russia, Europe and the United States completely redefined oil trade. Assessing the impact of a possible oil embargo on Russia is a near impossible task. But undoubtedly global oil trade and prices were severely impacted.

By the end of October it was an extremely different picture. As the cliché goes, the tanker sector was on fire. Charter hires reached stratospheric levels on the back of longer voyages for crude oil and for refined products, as well as small and large gas carriers.

As the latest phase of sanctions against Russian oil exports came into force in early December things continue to look extremely good for the tanker sector.

Impact of war in Ukraine

Much of what caused the boom in the tanker market has been the war in Ukraine, which of course has impacted more than shipping. But the invasion by Russia also left over a thousand seafarers stranded on vessels at Ukrainian ports.

Over the coming months seafarers were gradually evacuated from stranded vessels. However, a blockade of Ukrainian ports quickly started to have a serious impact on global food markets and prices as the country is major exporter of wheat and grain. Over a period of months much work was done to create an international corridor for grain exports from Ukraine with a humanitarian corridor and was up and running by the end of July.

“Inchcape Shipping Services (ISS) reported the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi opened as of July 27. ‘We can expect the first vessel sailing by the end of the week, as it’s critical to release the vessels which are still blocked in ports,’ said ISS. Once blocked vessels are cleared, activity will continue via convoy, accompanied by a lead vessel.”

The humanitarian corridor has continued to provide a vital lifeline for grain exports, on occasion it has been threatened with closure. Meanwhile the war continues to have other impacts on shipping such as the growing dark fleet of tankers aimed at busting sanctions against Russian oil exports.

P&O Ferries mass firing

Switching gears considerably and at the start of 2022 the name Peter Hebblethwaite would have meant little to most, but he was in few short months to hit global headlines. Peter Hebblethwaite is of course the CEO of P&O Ferries who was to be branded Britain’s most hated boss.

The branding of P&O Ferries boss as the most hated was a result of the mass firing of 800 seafarers over Zoom on March 17. “Video circulated online of the moment P&O notified some of its staff by Zoom call that their employment was ending the same day.”

Somewhat ambitiously P&O Ferries had planned to have its fleet back in service with agency crew within seven to ten days of the mass seafarer sackings. However, the return to service of P&O Ferries did not go remotely to plan and by the end of May it was still struggling to get it all its vessels back into service.

On May 26 it was reported the UK Maritime & Coastguard Agency clearing the Pride of Canterbury in a Port State Control inspection. One vessel in the P&O Ferries fleet still needed a Port State Control inspection before it can return to service. The whole fleet of 10 ships required inspection after P&O Ferries sacked 800 of its seafarers without warning by Zoom call on March 17.

The fleet did all get back into service, but the backlash continued and in October Hebblethwaite was forced to drop off a panel at the annual Interferry conference and in November voted the world’s worst boss by the International Trade Union Confederation.

Container shipping mega-profits

Container shipping enjoyed unprecedented earnings in 2021 and 2022 but as this year has progressed it has become clear that this is not going to last. We started out 2022 reporting that analysts Drewry had upped their annual forecast for container shipping’s EBIT in 2021 to US$150 billion to US$190 billion. As 2022 continued the profits reported by lines were to get even more staggering and in August we reported on the results of Maersk in Q2 just as they were hitting their peak.

Maersk reported an underlying EBIT of US$8.9 billion for the second quarter but behind the 15th consecutive quarter of on-year earnings improvements, there were signs of change. Profitability in the group’s ocean segment rose ‘significantly’ compared to Q2 2021, as softening volumes and short-term rates were comfortably offset by higher contract rates.”

The extent of the plunge in container spot rates to come was to take even the most pessimistic by surprise. In mid-October we reported: “In a research note entitled ‘Fast and furious’ HSBC noted spot rates reported by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) had fallen by 51% since the end of July – a decline of 7.5% per week. It was also highlighted that spot rates were now well below the levels of contract rates entered into at the start of 2022, especially on the Transpacific trade.

“In fact, at this pace of a 7.5% week-on-week decline, spot rates may hit the average spot rates of 2019 by the end of 2022, a level where we expect capacity discipline to meaningfully emerge, especially when rates go below cash costs.”

As spot rates head back down to 2019 levels this is particularly concerning for container lines as they negotiate long term contracts for 2023, and there can be little doubt that earnings will be considerably impacted.

Decarburization in focus

It's hard to talk about 2022 without mentioning decarburization and emissions. The industry’s ambitions, regulation and IMO targets have gone well beyond their traditional realms of the trade press. Watching the mainstream press trying to cover week-long bureaucratic meetings at the lumbering beast that is the IMO is not something we ever expected to see.

While the focus has more often than not been on regulation it is moves the industry itself is taking in terms of investing in alternative fuels that are the single most concrete actions. Over the last year we’ve seen growing traction around ammonia and methanol as a marine fuel, the latter attracting significant ship orders. However, while ships are on order the availability of green fuels is another matter. In July we covered an interesting story on potential source of cheap sustainable methanol.

In a September episode of the Seatrade Maritime Podcast it talked to Chris Chatterton of the Methanol Institute. Amid all the talk on regulation and targets the most significant change is the coming into force of the IMO’s EEXI and CII regulations, latter for carbon intensity proving particularly controversial.

These were covered in depth by correspondent Paul Bartlett in a November In Focus episode and as Paul commented, “The pressure is already on however, as ship-owners and operators should have drawn up new ship energy efficiency management plans (SEEMP by the end of this year.”

The December meeting of the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) saw some long-awaited progress on a revision of the IMO’s GHG strategy. IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim said at the close of the meeting, “It cannot be stressed enough how crucial it is that we keep the momentum and deliver an ambitious and fair, revised IMO GHG Strategy at MEPC 80 next year.”

The return of live events

Moving into the final topic for year-end review without a doubt 2022 was the year the of the in-person event with a huge bounce back in conferences, exhibitions, seminars and cocktail parties.

Winding back to March and CMA Shipping in Connecticut was one of the first larger gatherings followed Singapore Maritime Week in April although the latter was still restricted to some extent by Covid measures.

But revving it up a whole different level was the return of Posidonia in Greece in June. As noted at the time in monthly Maritime in Minutes podcast, “If anyone had any doubts about the appetite for inputs and events post pandemic Posidonia clearly spelled these, the exhibition halls packed with visitors from around the globe. There were huge traffic jams against the venue. And of course, there were the parties.”

It was quickly nicknamed Partydonia and it wasn’t hard to see why. But there was plenty of serious stuff going on as well including for ourselves at the Seatrade Maritime News with a raft of live event coverage as well as recording episodes podcasts with Stealthgas CEO Harry Vafias and Vassilios Demetriades the Shipping Deputy Minister of the Republic of Cyprus.

September saw the massive SMM event in Hamburg back on the calendar.  The event was hugely well attended and had strong theme of decarburization running across both the exhibition and conference content. Our Europe Editor Gary Howard summed up the whole event in a piece entitled Drowning in Decarburization.  It drowned out every other topic at SMM 2022, but most of the maritime industry still awaits direction.

Sunday 25 December 2022

Making Pakistan-Iran Trade Possible

Pakistan Must Opt for Oil for Food was the title of my first blog posted on June 17, 2012. I am tempted once again to talk about the same, as Pakistan continues to suffer from the worst balance of payment crisis. Iran is not only Pakistan’s next door neighbor but has repeatedly assured its capability to meet Pakistan’s energy demand.

The reason I am raising this issue again is that European Union member countries and India are allowed to import oil and gas from Russia, facing sanctions. If those countries are not barred from buying energy products from a “Sanctions Ridden Country” why can’t Pakistan buy energy products from Iran?

For decades the United States is saying “Iran is busy in producing nuclear warheads”. However, it hasn’t come up with any credible proof. Many critics say it is a hoax call. They remind of the similar allegation against Iraq that was busy in production of weapons of mass destruction.

After United States, withdrew from JOCPA during Donald Trump era, the perception is getting credence that the super power considers Iran a hurdle in creation of its hegemony in the region, the major supplier of crude oil and gas.

There is also growing feeling among Pakistanis that due to the US pressure on the ruling junta the country not only stopped buying crude oil from Iran, but also stopped construction of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. The people privy to information also says that even supply of wheat and rice to Iran has been put on hold.

 They refer to Iraq which was allowed to export oil under “oil for food program”.

The US is fully aware that Pakistan’s GDP growth being pegged due to looming energy crisis and the country needs low cost energy products immediately. However, Pakistan is not being allowed crude oil and gas from Iran.

The time has come Pakistan should assert itself and convince the US that buying energy products from Iran bodes well for Pakistan. If India can pay Iran in Rupee, Pakistan should be allowed to buy energy products from Iran against supply of wheat and rice.

 

Saturday 24 December 2022

Iran dispatches export cargo ship to Venezuela

A ship carrying Iran-made export goods has been dispatched by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line Group (IRISL) to Venezuela, IRIB reported.

According to IRISL, this is the fourth vessel carrying consignments produced by Iranian producers to the Latin American country in the current year.

As reported, another ship is also scheduled to be sent to Venezuela next month if anticipated capacities are being completed.

The IRISL has notified Iranian authorities and the chambers of commerce of the country, expressing readiness to create regular shipping line to export Iranian commodities to Venezuela.

Iran hosted the ninth meeting of the Iran-Venezuela Joint Economic Committee on November 15, 2022 during which the two sides reached agreements for the expansion of cooperation in several areas.

A senior delegation of Venezuelan officials including the country’s Transportation Minister Ramon Blazquez and Agriculture Minister Wilmar Castro Soteldo visited Iran to attend the mentioned meeting to explore new avenues for mutual cooperation.

The major economic event was co-chaired by Venezuelan Transport Minister Ramon Blazquez and Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics of Iran Mohammadreza Gharaei Ashtiani.

At the end of the meeting, the two sides inked a comprehensive cooperation document covering a variety of areas including industry, mining, energy, petrochemical, trade, agriculture, science, and technology.

Addressing the event, Ashtiani said, “We firmly believe that the successful holding of this committee meeting will be the beginning and a turning point in the macro and strategic relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela under the leadership of Seyed Ebrahim Raisi and Nicolas Maduro, the presidents of the two countries.”

He stressed that Iran and Venezuela are two independent countries with close and common positions on regional and international issues.

Prior to the two countries’ Joint Economic Committee meeting, Soteldo met with Iranian Agriculture Minister Javad Sadati-Nejad and the two sides inked a cooperation document on plant conservation and quarantine.

As reported, the signed document is a prelude to future agreements in various agriculture fields including mechanization, contract farming, knowledge and technology transfer, etc.

Speaking at the signing ceremony, Sadati-Nejad mentioned the visit of several Venezuelan delegations over the past few months, saying that these exchanges indicate the determination of the two countries to expand mutual ties.

Emphasizing the capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the export of agricultural products, the minister expressed hope that the export of all kinds of agricultural products and food such as dried fruits, citrus fruits, apples and etc. to Venezuela will be realized as soon as possible.

He also called on the Venezuelan side to consider special tariff reductions for Iranian agricultural products in future exchanges.

Also, on the sidelines of the two countries’ Joint Economic Committee meeting, Blazquez met with Head of Iran’s National Development Fund (NDF) Mehdi Ghazanfari during which the Iranian side expressed readiness for investment in Venezuela’s oil and petrochemical projects.

Blazquez also held a meeting with the former Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) Alireza Moghadasi during which the two sides signed an agreement on customs cooperation.

According to Moghadasi, mutual assistance and cooperation in technical fields, exchange of information between the customs of the two countries, especially focusing on the mutual identification of authorized economic operators (AEO) and risk management, are among the important provisions of this agreement.

Saturday 9 July 2022

Biden visit to Middle East: What is more important Israel or Saudi Arabia?

Forty-nine years since making his first trip to Israel, US President Joe Biden is scheduled to arrive in the country on Wednesday on the first leg of his first presidential visit to the Middle East.

For years he has regaled Jewish and Israeli audiences with an account of a meeting he had during that trip with then-prime minister Golda Meir, who told him that Israel’s secret weapon in dealing with Arab hostility was, “We have no place else to go.”

He later termed the meeting one of the most “consequential” of his life.

At that meeting, however, he complained to Meir about the Labor Party’s platform which he said was leading to “creeping annexation” of the territories. He also relayed to Meir that in Egypt he heard how the Egyptian officials believed in “Israel military superiority.” He concluded, as a result, that Israel should initiate the first step toward peace by unilateral withdrawals from nonstrategic areas.

A half-century breeds enormous changes. The US has changed dramatically, as has its position in the Mideast. Israel, too, has changed dramatically, as has its position in the world. But two things from that meeting remain constant, Biden is still opposed to Israel’s policies in the territories, and Israel’s sense that it has no place else to go infuses much of its strategic thinking – including Iran.

On Biden’s upcoming visit, both in Israel and in Saudi Arabia, Iran issue is going to take up much more room than the occupied territories.

Another issue, which came to the fore only a few months after Biden’s initial visit, will also feature prominently, oil. His visit in the late summer of 1973 came just before the Arab countries discovered oil as a strategic weapon, and began to use it.

Biden is the seventh sitting US president to visit Israel. It took 26 years before the first presidential visit to Israel, with Richard Nixon taking that leap in 1974. Since then, there have been 10 other presidential visits, including a one-day visit by Barack Obama in 2016 to attend Shimon Peres’s funeral. Nixon, Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump all visited once, George W. Bush and Obama visited twice, and Bill Clinton came here four times.

This will not be the first time a US president comes during an election campaign. Clinton came here in March 1996 – after organizing a “Summit of Peacemakers’’ in Sharm e-Sheikh – and made clear his preference for Peres, rather than the Likud leader running against him at the time, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Clinton’s support didn’t help, as Netanyahu eked out a razor-thin victory over Peres in elections held two months later. This should be a cautionary tale for Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who is hoping that Biden’s visit will give him a boost.

Historically, nods from US Presidents – though the optics are often powerful – have not necessarily translated into huge bonuses at the polls. Ask Netanyahu how much he was helped by the hug then-president Donald Trump gave him before the two elections in 2019, and the one in 2020. Trump was all-in for Netanyahu, yet Netanyahu didn’t get the votes he needed to form a coalition.

What Biden’s visit will do for Lapid is make him look prime ministerial. Photos of Lapid meeting and greeting Biden, and even audio of Biden praising the new acting prime minister, may help remove lingering doubt among those who believe that the onetime television journalist is not yet ready for the political prime time.

It is not, however, going to move voters from the pro-Netanyahu camp to the anti-Netanyahu camp headed by Lapid.

What is the goal? Beyond Lapid, what does Israel want from the Biden visit?

First of all, it just wants the visit itself. Presidential visits are still important for Israel because they reinforce the impression – an important one for Jerusalem in projecting power throughout the region and beyond – that its alliance with the US is steadfast and solid, and that it continues to enjoy a close and special relationship with Washington.

This not only deters those who might want to harm Israel, realizing that the US stands firmly behind it, but also encourages those who might want to get closer to Israel, because of Israel’s closeness to America. Presidential visits demonstrate that closeness.

Such a demonstration is especially important now, amid a constant drumbeat of stories about how Israel’s support in the US is on the decline, especially among Biden’s own Democratic Party, and especially among young voters in that party.

Secondly, Israel wants coordination on the Iranian dossier to come from this visit. It wants to coordinate with Biden regarding policy toward the Islamic Republic if there is no new nuclear agreement, and it wants to know what type of security architecture the US plans for the Mideast in that eventuality. Israel doesn’t only want to listen; it wants to give its input. Furthermore, Israel also wants to hear from Biden what the US plans to do if an agreement is signed, and Iran violates it.

Biden is scheduled to arrive Wednesday afternoon and will be leaving for Saudi Arabia on Friday. He will also be spending a few hours in the Palestinian Authority with PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

There, too, there will be meetings with interlocutors who want something. The Palestinians will want to hear Biden talk about a two-state solution, and provide concrete steps toward working toward a “diplomatic horizon.” They will want commitments regarding opening a consulate in east Jerusalem, reopening the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s office in Washington, and pledges of more financial support for the PA.

They are likely to be disappointed, as – unlike other presidents on trips to Israel and the Mideast – the Palestinian issue, resolving this issue, is nowhere near the top of the president’s agenda for this trip.

When discussions about a possible presidential visit became public a few months ago, Naftali Bennett was prime minister – the government was shaky, but still held. Even though the government has since fallen, a new prime minister is in office, and elections are four months away, the Americans proved very determined to go ahead with the visit.

Why visit Jerusalem at a time when the prime minister is not going to be able to make any significant promises, since in four months he may not be able to act on them. Why risk being seen as meddling in internal Israeli politics?

Israel is only a sidelight on this visit. Had Biden been coming only to Israel, he probably would have canceled and come next year, after the US midterm elections and when a new government would be in place in Jerusalem. But Israel is just the appetizer on this presidential voyage. Saudi Arabia is the main course.

Ironically, Biden is actually using the appetizer to explain to critics why he is moving on to the main course. He is using Israel to deflect criticism at home about visiting Saudi Arabia, despite that country’s human rights violations, despite its involvement in the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and despite Biden’s having said in the 2020 presidential campaign that it is a country that should be treated like a “pariah.”

One of the main purposes of this visit to the region, Biden said at a press conference in Spain last month, is to “deepen Israel’s integration in the region.”

“I think we’re going to be able to do that, which is good – good for peace and good for Israeli security,” he said. “That’s why Israeli leaders have come out so strongly for my going to Saudi Arabia.”

Biden is going to Saudi Arabia, where he will join a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Iraq, Egypt and Jordan, and is expected to see Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom he has pointedly snubbed since becoming president. In Saudi Arabia, both Biden and the Saudis have their wants.

Biden wants, in fact he desperately needs, the Saudis to increase oil production to make up for shortfalls in supply caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has led to skyrocketing prices in the US, with the average cost per gallon now standing at $4.79 a gallon (still well below the $8.96 Israelis pay per gallon at the pump).

The president is making his Mideast trip as the US economy is in the doldrums, sending his popularity numbers to new lows. Biden’s approval rating (39% on June 30) was almost 3 points lower than Trump’s at the same stage of his presidency. Low popularity isn’t because he has not put enough energy into the Mideast peace process, but, rather, primarily because of the economy – inflation and gas prices.

He hopes that in Saudi Arabia he can find a cure, at least, for gas prices, but this may be too high of an ask.

The Saudis, smarting from what they feel is the shabby way they were treated by Biden and this administration, are in no great rush to come to the president’s aid.

Lowering gas prices will help the Democrats – poised to get clobbered in five months in the US midterm election. But the Saudis aren’t interested in the Democrats doing well at the polls. If anything, they would prefer a Republican Congress and – in another two years – a Republican president.

Saudis also have their wants. They want the US to acknowledge that Riyadh has been a loyal strategic partner for 80 years; they want the US to acknowledge that the country has suffered from Houthi attacks; they want the Houthis reinstated on the American list of terrorist organizations; they want respect from Washington, and not to be viewed merely as America’s gas station.

In addition, they want assurances from Biden that they can count on the US in the future. The Saudis are looking for assurances that the US is not withdrawing from the region and is still willing to use its vast military power, and they want to hear how the US plans to protect them from Iran.

Biden will be flying into a region this week where a lot of different parties have a lot of different asks and expectations. Inevitably, some people are going to be disappointed, Biden himself may be among them. 

Thursday 16 June 2022

Iran can fulfill Pakistan’s energy needs, says President Raisi

According to Tasnim News Agency, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi expressed the country’s readiness to satisfy Pakistan’s demand for oil, gas and electricity. In a meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, held in Tehran, Raisi hailed the close ties between the two neighbors, saying the people of Iran and Pakistan are like relatives.

“We consider Pakistan’s security to be our own security,” he said, adding, “Some do not like the good relations between the two Muslim, neighboring, friendly and brotherly nations, but the development of relations leads to economic prosperity and more security for the nations of the region.”

There are no restrictions in Tehran for the development of relations with Islamabad, Raisi noted, saying, “We are ready to promote comprehensive cooperation with Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran has the necessary capacity to meet Pakistan’s needs in various fields, including oil, gas and electricity.”

The Iranian president called the fields of energy, transit and cooperation and coordination in the regional issues and crises as important aspects of relations between the two countries, his official website reported.

For his part, Bilawal expressed satisfaction with the visit to Iran, adding, “As much as I am a child of Pakistan, I am also a child of Iran.”

Thanking Iran for exporting electricity to Pakistan, the Foreign Minister said, “We are fully prepared to complete and conclude the previous talks in the fields of security, trade and energy.”

Pakistani Foreign Minister also praised the government of Iran for its assistance in extinguishing the widespread wildfires in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.

 

Thursday 6 May 2021

Is Israel losing resilience?

Once upon a time Israel was considered invincible, but now it is being said openly that its security has eroded and its safety bubble burst in the last few months. The situations demands an assessment of Israeli vulnerability and the weakening of other US allies and partners in the region.  

It is being said that Israel faces political and social disintegration. It has suffered strikes against its maritime interests and also witnessed cyber security vulnerabilities.

The fragility and vulnerability of the Israeli national security system is getting exposed.

The country had held four elections to appoint a prime minister, but still unable to do so and probably go for the fifth election. The system has received extraordinary injuries.

It is not the first time that Israeli strategic installations have been attacked. While Tehran claims it is retaliating against Israel, most of these have been termed accidents or total myths by Israel.

Several Israeli-owned ships have been attacked in the Gulf of Oman. This includes a February incident involving the MV Helios Ray. The Hyperion Ray was allegedly attacked in April, after a Wall Street Journal report claim that Israel had struck a dozen Iranian ships.  

Israel seems to be collapsing from within and may face further problems with the US gradually leaving the region.

It seems the US is not willing to support its allies. It is distancing from Saudi Arabia, after having achieve self sufficiency in crude oil production.

Political balance seems to be emerging in Syria and the country is getting ready to hold election.

There is political unity in Iraq and resistance movements seem to getting further strength.

The US faces pressure from Iraqi groups who are trying to expel it from the region.

As the US losing influence, Iran is getting ready to play a new role in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan.

Friday 16 April 2021

Pakistan oil and gas production declines during Jan-Mar 2021 quarter

Pakistan’s indigenous crude oil production in 3QFY21 declined to 77,139, down 6%YoY barrels per day (bpd) mainly because of sharp fall of 63%YoY in Makori Deep’s production, followed by 23%YoY decline in Mardankhel and 11%YoY in Maramzai’s productions.

These three fields belong to Tal Block (operated by MOL Pakistan) of which production in total has declined by 13%YoY to 17,840 bpd during Jan-Mar 2021 quarter as against 20,597 bpd during Jan-Mar 2020 quarter.

The decline in production from Tal Block was contained to 13% due to 3%YoY increase in oil production from Makori East (which contributes 54% to Tal Block and 12% to country’s production).

On a QoQ basis, Pakistan oil production was up by 2%.

During 9MFY21, Pakistan oil production declined by 6%YoY to 75,924 bpd due to decline in flows from Makori Deep, Mardankhel and Nashpa fields.

Pakistan domestic gas production declined to 3,550 mmcfd, down by 3%YoY during the quarter under review due to lower flows from Qadirpur, Kandhkot, KPD and Maramzai ranging from 7% to 15%YoY.

Mari field’s production increased by 3%YoY and 2%QoQ as it has replaced Kandhkot field volumes to the National Grid. As a result, Kandkot field volumes have come down by 11%YoY and 1%QoQ.

On QoQ basis, gas production increased by 5% during the quarter due to sharp improvement in flows of Uch Field, rising to 35,013 mmcfd.

On 9MFY21 basis, gas production was down 3%YoY to 3,525 mmcfd due to decline in flows from Qadirpur, Kandkot, and KPD to the tune of 4% to 17%.

Wednesday 10 February 2021

Iran drills 117 oil and gas wells in first 10 months of current calendar year

National Iranian Drilling Company (NIDC) has completed drilling of 117 oil and gas wells during the first nine months of the current Iranian calendar year. Managing Director of the company, Abdollah Mousavi said the drilled wells consisted of 27 development wells, one appraisal well, 85 workover wells and four exploratory wells.

The official stated that during this period, 18 wells were drilled 326 days earlier than the schedule and handed over to the applicant company for operation, adding that the early production of the wells, rig clearance, and cost reduction, which are resulted through cooperation between the experts of NIDC and the operating company, is economically viable significantly.

After the US re-imposed sanctions on Iran, indigenizing the know-how for the manufacturing of the parts and equipment applied in different industrial sectors is one of the major strategies that the Islamic Republic has been strongly following up to reach self-reliance and nullify the sanctions.

Oil, gas and petrochemical industries have achieved outstanding performances due to indigenizing of the knowledge for manufacturing many parts and equipment that were previously imported. Among different sectors of the mentioned industries, drilling could be mentioned as a prominent example in this regard.

NIDC managed to indigenize the knowledge for manufacturing 6,000 drilling equipment in collaboration with domestic manufacturers and engineers in the previous Iranian calendar year.

Before this success, the technology for manufacturing the mentioned equipment was in the possession of a handful of foreign companies.

The equipment indigenized by NIDC includes drilling mud pumps, blowout preventers, traction motors, draw-works, drilling fluid recycling systems, mission centrifugal pumps, top drives, and drilling rig slow circulation rate pressure systems.

The company has also managed to indigenize the know-how for manufacturing 242 parts highly-applied in the drilling industry during the first half of the current Iranian calendar year.

In order to indigenize the technology to manufacture these parts, NIDC inked six research deals with domestic universities and knowledge-based companies.

At the beginning of the current Iranian year, NIDC managing director had said that his company’s performance will be more outstanding in this year, which is named the year of surge in production.

The official’s saying has already come true, as his company managed to indigenize the know-how for manufacturing some significant parts, and also in completing the digging operations sooner than the schedule.

NIDC accounts for a major part of drilling exploration as well as appraisal/development wells in Iran. It holds 70 onshore and offshore drilling rigs as well as equipment and facilities for offering integrated technical and engineering services.

Friday 10 April 2020

And finally Saudi Arabia bows down before US mantra


The decision by OPEC plus to cut production can be termed a time-out to avert a tripartite war. Lately, there has been significant deterioration in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Reportedly, nearly 50 US Republican lawmakers warned Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the eve of this week’s OPEC oil ministers’ video-conference that economic and military cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia was at risk. The congressmen demanded that the kingdom must convince Russia to save oil marker from a collapsed.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) had joined Saudi Arabia in raising production in a move that was sparked by Russia’s initial refusal to extend production cuts agreed early this year but more fundamentally was designed to knock out competition from US shale producers that had turned the United States into the world’s largest oil producer.
It is being portrayed that Saudi Arabia, Russia and the UAE share a desire to render the US shale industry uncompetitive. The prime objective of Russia is to end the US hegemony by stripping it off its status of largest oil producing country.
The threats for Arabian Peninsula monarchs and the US have been raised by the collapse of the oil price as well as demand in the midst of a global economic meltdown.
For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the stakes were their relationship with the US and significant reputational damage with a move that put at risk tens of millions of American jobs at a time more than 17 million people have been rendered jobless in the United States in the past four weeks.
Oil is but the tip of an iceberg in efforts, particularly in the case of the UAE, to manage a divergence in interests with the United States without tarnishing the country’s carefully groomed image as one of Washington’s closest allies in the Middle East.
Emirati gestures were designed to ensure that it would not be a target in any military confrontation between the United States and Iran.
However, when UAE began reaching out to Iran last year by sending a coast guard delegation to Tehran to discuss maritime security in the wake of alleged Iranian attacks on oil tankers off the coast of the Emirate, the relationship got bitter.
The Trump administration remained silent when the UAE last October released US$700 million in frozen Iranian assets that ran counter to US efforts to strangle Iran economically with harsh sanctions.
While the United States reportedly blocked an Iranian request for US$5 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to fight the virus, the UAE was among the first nations to facilitate aid shipments to the Islamic republic.
The shipments led to a rare March 15 telephonic conversation between UAE foreign minister Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javid Zarif.
UAE officials stressed that there would be no real breakthrough in Emirati-Iranian relations as long as Iran supported proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Houth rebels in Yemen. The UAE gesture contrasted starkly with a Saudi refusal to capitalize on the pandemic.
A against this, Saudi Arabia appeared to reinforce battle lines by accusing Iran of “direct responsibility” for the spread of the virus. Government-controlled media charged that Iran’s allies, Qatar and Turkey, had deliberately mismanaged the crisis.
Moreover, the kingdom, backing a US refusal to ease sanctioning of Iran, prevented the Non-Aligned Movement from condemning the Trump administration’s hard line.
In a further indication of a divergence of interests, the UAE was alleged for trying to sabotage US support for Turkey’s military intervention in northern Syria as well as a Turkish-Russian engineered ceasefire in the region.
It was also reported that UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed had promised Syrian President Bashar al-Assad US$3 billion, out of this US$250 million were paid upfront to break the ceasefire in Idlib, one of the last rebel strongholds in Syria.
Prince Mohammed had hoped to tie Turkey up in fighting in Syria, which would complicate Turkish military support for the internationally recognized Libyan government in Tripoli. The UAE aids Libyan rebel forces led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
A tweet by Prince Mohammed on 28th March declaring support for Syria in the fight against the coronavirus was designed to keep secret the real reason for the UAE payment.
“I discussed with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by phone the repercussions of the spread of the coronavirus and assured him of the UAE’s support of and assistance for the brotherly Syrian people in these exceptional circumstances. Human solidarity in times of adversity supersedes all else, Sisterly Syria will not be alone in these difficult circumstances,” Prince Mohammed said. It is unlikely that Prince Mohammed’s explanations will convince policymakers in Washington.
Nevertheless, the United States, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to hide cracks in their relations, but it is only a matter of time the cracks will re-appear.




Wednesday 26 February 2020

Why is war in Iraq still going on, despite the massive economic costs?


The war in Iraq from the outset was very controversial in the United States and other Western countries.The opponents considered the cost of the war in Iraq as a heavy burden on the US taxpayers and wanted to prevent the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and have called for a halt to the war in Iraq repeatedly since its beginning.

Lately, various US groups and institutions have rallied to highlight this issue once again. “The Costs of War Project” is one of the research projects on the costs of the war in Iraq that begun its evaluation of the costs since 2011. The project is being observed and managed by Dr. Neta C. Crawford, Professor and Chair of Political Science at Boston University, examining the key features and effects of the Iraq War on the federal budget. 

According to the latest report says that even if the US administration decides to pull out all of its troops in Iraq immediately, the war has already cost US$1,922 billion to the US tax payers voters from 2003 to the end of 2019. This amount not only includes funding appropriated by the US Department of Defense (DoD) for the war, but also the costs of the care of Iraq War veterans and interests on debt incurred for the 16 years of the US military's involvement in the country. 

The DoD had allotted approximately US$838 billion for military operations in Iraq from the fiscal year 2003 to 2019, including operations fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Aside from the Defense Department costs, the State Department added approximately US$59 billion to the total costs of the Iraq War for The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) on Iraq and Syria. Since 9/11 attacks, about US$4.1 billion has been spent on medical and disability care of war veterans and compensation. 

These costs came at the time when the Pentagon has been trying to cut its expenditures for the past decade after its annual US$140 billion funds for the Iraq War heightened in 2008. In some cases, Congress has appropriated funding required for the war in Iraq apart from previous approved plans.

It is worth mentioning that the EU budget with 27 member countries and a population of 446 million people was set at US$175 billion in 2018. Therefore, a question is being asked, why is the war in Iraq still going on, despite the massive economic costs?

Some experts consider the ideological orientation of US foreign policy to be one of the main reasons for the continued war in Iraq. From this point of view, Washington is trying to confront its ideological opponents rather than adopting short-term approach toward issues and the costs and benefits of the implementation of its policies.

On top of all Washington considers Islamic Republic of Iran as its most important ideological opponent, which has been openly defying the US policies. Therefore, White House leaders find it necessary to continue the war in Iraq to confront Iran.

Therefore, withdrawal of US troops from Iraq is being considered as a major defeat for the United States. That is the reason the US continues to insist on maintaining its presence and even expanding its military bases in Iraq, despite the massive financial costs and the Iraqi parliament’s resolution for expulsion of foreign troops. 

Washington knows it very well that the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq will be taken as a sign of its defeat. It also knows that this defeat will be the opposite of the "America First" populist slogan.

Saturday 17 June 2017

Recent blasts aimed at initiating the third World War



I have the habit of logging in Reuters every morning, this is part of my professional activities as well as my personal endevour. I also make an attempt to keep myself abreast with whatever is happening around the world in general and in my neighborhood in particular. In my blogs on Geopolitics in South Asia and MENA, I write about the ongoing turmoils and also try to understand the motives of ‘Merchants of Death’.
This morning  when I logged in, I read the news about  an explosion in Bogota, Colombia in a shopping center that killed three and wounded nine. Authorities said there had been threats of attacks in Bogota by the Gulf Clan, a group of former right-wing paramilitary fighters who traffic drugs. This reminded me of a blast In Kabul on May 3, 2017 in which least eight Afghan civilians were killed when a suicide bomber attacked a military convoy and another 25 civilians were wounded.
I spent some time in exploring news about blasts and suicide bombing from Google, list is given below. Having a cursory look at the news forced me to the following conclusion:
The groups having vested interest are killing people in the name of religion to get control of energy supplies and drugs. However, they completely mislead the people by making these religious and sectarian conflicts. Their sole objective remains, proliferation of conflicts for selling arms.
These conflicts continue because regional and global powers are fighting proxy wars. Hundreds and thousands of innocent people are killed every year, millions face displacement and miseries are projected through social media but killers remain at large.
Pakistan is one of the worst victim of terrorism and sectarian killing, but hardly a few have been trialed and sentenced death penalty, except from the military courts. Pakistan has been hosting millions of Afghans for more than four decades in the name of Islam, but Afghan rulers are never tired of accusing Pakistan of cross-border terrorism.
I once read an article that the third World War will be fought for getting control on sources of water, but now I have the reasons to believe that it will be on the basis of religion/sects. The trailers are already going on in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. An attempt was also made to break out full-scale war between Saudi Arabia and Qatar that failed due to the timely mediation of neighboring countries.
List of some of the recent attacks
Twin attacks in Iran: June 07 2017
Attacks on the Iranian parliament and Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum killed at least 12 people and injured many more.
London Bridge terror attack: June 02 2017
The London terror attack killed at least seven people and injured 58 others on London Bridge and in nearby Market. 
Manchester terror attack: May 22 2017
The Manchester terror attack killed at least 22 people and injured 59 others at a concert. 
Paris shooting: April 20 2017
A policeman was killed on the Champs Elysees in Paris in what is being treated as a terror-related attack.
Stockholm attack: April o7 2017
Four people were killed and at least fifteen were injured when a man drove a truck down a busy shopping street.
Westminster attack: March 22 2017
In London an attacker mowed down pedestrians on Westminster Bridge, killing two men and two women and injuring many others. 
Sehwan shrine bombing: February 16 2017
At least 72 killed at the Shrine of  Sufi Muslim in Pakistan, the blast was part of a  new wave of violence in Pakistan
Blasts in Cairo: April 09 2017
Twin blasts at a Church killed at least 47 people and inured dozens
Car bomb explosion in Baghdad: February 16 2017
A deadly car bomb explosion in Baghdad killed 51 people and wounded many others
Blast in Russia: April 3, 2017
Blasts at St. Petersburg Metro station kill at least 10 people and injured more than 40