US Indo-Pacific foreign security policy

According to Nikkei Asia, an emerging quadrilateral group, between the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, has become the core of Washington's foreign security policy in the Indo-Pacific, quickly overtaking the Quad in priority.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a series of meetings in Hawaii with his counterparts from the three countries last Thursday to set an "ambitious course" for peace, stability and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The four-way alliance has reportedly been nicknamed the "Squad" by Pentagon officials.

The four nations have held maritime military drills in April and are expected to hold more later this year.

Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the Quad, a gathering of the US, Japan, India and Australia, has "an appearance of slippage" due to scheduling problems caused by the elections in India, an upcoming one in the U.S., and the wars in Europe and the Middle East.

But Tellis said these developments have put the role of the Quad in perspective.

"Where balancing China is concerned, the Quad is only one arrow among many in the US quiver," he said. "It has its greatest value in peacetime.

"In militarized crises and conflict with China, the minilaterals like AUKUS and the 'Squad', and most importantly, the US-Japan alliance will prove to be far more important than the Quad," he said.

"That is not to denigrate the Quad. It is simply underscoring a strategic fact of life," the former special assistant to President George W. Bush added.

Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of the Observer Research Foundation America, said the newfound attention on the Squad grouping comes at a time when China has fired water cannons at Philippine supply ships in the South China Sea to prevent delivery of construction materials to the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal to bolster Manila's sovereignty.

"That's really where China's applying the greatest pressure at this time, even more than Taiwan, and it's really a test of the US alliance," Jaishankar said.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson has previously said the water cannon firings were a response to the ships intruding "without China's permission" and a "serious infringement" on Chinese sovereignty

New Delhi had hoped to convene a Quad summit earlier in the year, to coincide with a possible visit by US President Joe Biden visit to India in January, but the US leader was unable to make it citing a tight schedule.

India also explored a Quad summit before the Indian elections that began on April 19, according to Jaishankar. That too was thwarted by Biden's March 07 State of the Union address and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishdia's state-level visit to the US on April 10.

"Clearly the triangle of the US, Japan and Australia is far more important," said Kent Calder, director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, adding that "a series of strategic triangles (including the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and the US, Japan and Philippines) are really the core of US foreign policy now."

The professor noted that all of these strategic triangles have clear functional purposes. The Biden administration is "too busy for more talk shops," he said. "The Quad under current circumstances does have that problem."

But Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said the Squad is not a "replacement" for the Quad and should rather be seen as a supplement.

"India is an important part of the US Indo-Pacific strategy. It's a critical part," she said.

"In the event that there's any kind of conflict or crisis, either in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, India will play a critical role in keeping an eye on the Indian Ocean region and the Malacca Strait," she said.

The difference between the Quad and the Squad is the presence of the word "deterrence." Despite its formal name of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the Quad has stayed away from security issues.

Joint statements issued after the past three Quad leaders summits have included references of "peace" and "stability" of the region but has never spoken about deterrence.

This is out of consideration for India, who has had a tradition of non-alignment, more recently known as strategic autonomy.

 

Russian oil exports growing despite sanctions

Russian oil export revenues surged to US$17.2 billion in March 2024, driven by higher global oil prices and increased crude export volumes, according to the April ‘Russian Oil Tracker’ by KSE Institute.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price cap.

Russian seaborne oil exports rose by 4% in March, driven by a 12% increase in crude oil shipment to more than 400,000 barrels per day, while exports of oil products declined by 6%. Notably, India saw a 3% increase in Russian crude imports to 1,445,000 barrels per day, maintaining its position as the top importer of Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, Turkey has been meeting around two-thirds of its oil demand through Russian oil products imports, with total imports exceeding 800,000 barrels per day since November 2023.

However, only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet. It was responsible for exports of 2.8 million barrels per day of crude and 1.1 million barrel per day of oil products in March.

Specifically, 223 loaded non-IG-insured tankers left Russian ports, with 2 engaged in STS transfers in March 2024. With 85% of these tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened—a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay.

The US Treasury’s strategy of designating individual vessels effectively removes shadow tankers from regular commercial service. As of April 12, 2024, out of 41 sanctioned vessels, 37 were unloaded and not scheduled for further voyages, while 3 were completing their current voyages in line with the OFAC authorization.

One vessel provides coastal shuttle services violating OFAC’s sanctions but only within the Black Sea. On April 04, OFAC also sanctioned Oceanlink Maritime Dmcc and its 13 tankers for its ties with Iran but 7 of these 13 tankers also shipped Russian crude without IG P&I insurance.

Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. Nine of them were directly involved in loading Iranian oil in Iran or through STS operations in 2021-2023, as per Kpler.

Russia also continues to evade shadow fleet sanctions by transferring sanctioned tankers to new entities. For instance, when four UAE-registered shipping companies, sanctioned by the UK, passed tankers to other Emirati firms, they continued commercial operations under new management. Similarly, Stream Ship Management Fzco became the top shipper of Russian crude oil after acquiring tankers previously managed by Oil Tankers Scf Mgmt Fzc, sanctioned by the OFAC.

UAE, Chinese and Greek ship managers have played a leading role in transporting Russian crude. In March 2024, eight of the top ten shippers of Russian crude were registered in the UAE or China.

As for Russian oil products exports, Greek companies dominated the top shippers, although Modern Gemi Isletmeciligi As (Turkey) and Oil Tankers Scf Mgmt Fzco (UAE) led the list in March.

KSE Institute projects Russian oil revenues to reach US$175 billion and US$152 billion in 2024 and 2025 under the base case with current oil price caps and stronger sanctions enforcement. However, if sanctions enforcement is weak, Russian oil revenues could increase, reaching US$206 billion in 2024 and US$195 billion in 2025.

The Q4 2023 data suggest that problems with price cap implementation and enforcement are much bigger than previously expected. To ensure that sanctions continue to constrain Russia’s ability to wage its war of aggression on Ukraine—and that their credibility is maintained—additional steps urgently need to be taken. Below, we outline three critical measures that can quickly and effectively address Russian effort to evade sanctions on its oil exports.

1. G7/EU countries should ensure that their authorities have sufficient proof of compliance with the price cap, including by: a) leveraging the involvement of G7/EU financial institutions in the Russian oil trade and their knowledge of key transaction details such as prices; b) requiring attestations to be provided by reputable entities defined via transparent criteria and subject to sanctions in the case of violations or their facilitation; and/or c) stepping-up of documentary evidence requirements for G7/EU service providers under the current system (including original sales contracts, etc.).

2. EU coastal states should leverage geographical “choke points” to limit Russia’s use of a “shadow fleet” of tankers by requiring proper spill insurance for vessels’ passage through their territorial waters, including in the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean. This would force Russia to rely once again on G7/EU services for a substantial share of its exports and also help address environmental risks that have emerged due to the increasing use of old and under-insured tankers. For this purpose, a system to allow for timely and efficient verification of insurance information should be established.

3. Price cap coalition countries should step up penalties on entities that violate the price cap. For G7/EU companies, this should include tougher monetary penalties and expanded lockout periods. For third-country actors, price cap coalition countries should impose “direct” sanctions (e.g., SDN listing in the United States or use of the European Union’s anti-circumvention tool established in the 11th package) and consider the application of extraterritorial (“secondary”) sanctions, leveraging the continued critical importance of its financial system for internationally operating businesses.

 

Iranian drones fascinate many countries

Military analysts and experts in the West have invariably emphasized that Iranian drones have proven their effectiveness in real battlefields and, as a result, have been met with great interest from many countries.

The military analytical platform “Breaking Defense,” in a recent report, evaluated one of the global consequences of the missile and drone Operation True Promise and stated that despite the extensive cooperation of several countries alongside Israel with Tehran’s launched weapons, the global interest in Iranian drones is not diminishing, and analysts say there is a highly enthusiastic market worldwide for accessing and purchasing relatively cheap and efficient Iranian drones.

The report’s author added that perhaps Israel and its allies were able to deal with the large number of 300 drones and missiles that Iran launched in its unprecedented attack on Israel, but according to analysts, this has not deterred potential customers of Tehran’s unmanned aerial vehicles.

Fabian Heinz, a defense and military researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that most countries, interested in Iranian drones, want to use them against powerful enemies such as the United States and Israel. 

For these countries, the advanced capabilities of enemies such as the United States in tracking these weapons are not so concerning. Iranian offensive drones have proven their effectiveness well.

Samuel Bendett, an artificial intelligence and unmanned systems expert at the CNA Institute in Washington, also stated that Israel’s opposition will not have an impact on Iran’s sales market, especially to countries seeking to adopt a politically and militarily independent approach from the West.

The report, with details of the number and types of drones and missiles used by Iran, claimed that Iran launched 170 Shahed 131 and 136 drones, along with over 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles towards targets in Israel. 

According to the analysis, in recent years, the Shahed drone family has attracted widespread attention worldwide due to successful use in several operational scenarios, with the most prominent display being in Ukraine.

Jean-Marc Rickli, the head of global risk and resilience at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), also claimed to Breaking Defense that Ukraine provided a powerful showcase for the Shahed drones, even if these drones failed in the attack on Israel, they proved that they impose a significant cost on the adversary.

He also stated that the use of expensive missiles to destroy these inexpensive drones incurs a high cost, and more importantly, it eliminates the defender’s capabilities. In the case of Israel, the interception of drones costed more than the drones themselves.

He also pointed out that the calculation has made Iranian drones attractive to many international buyers, adding that the potential market for Iran includes countries that are sanctioned by the West or have no fear of sanctions and are not willing to accept Western conditions when selling weapons.

According to this report, interest in purchasing Iranian drones has increased even more after extensive debates and denials about Russia’s use of these aircraft against Ukraine. 

Several months later, a senior Iranian official announced that 22 countries have expressed interest in buying Iranian-made drones. Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Defense Minister, also claimed in February that 50 countries are negotiating with Tehran to purchase missiles and drones from the country.

Even an analyst from FDD said, “Iranian drones are now present in operational theaters on four continents: Asia, Africa, Europe, and South America.”

The report also mentioned Iran’s competitors in the drone market and added that analysts consider Iranian drones a cost-effective solution. Despite China leading in drone exports, experts say that Iran goes beyond Beijing and has few competitors in its niche market.

It was also emphasized that Iran has proven efficiency in high-altitude, combat, and suicide drones. While there are indeed some companies in this market, but Iran does stand out.

According to the abovementioned analysis, many experts were taken aback when they first encountered reports of Russia’s dependence on Iranian drones.

Last year, Brigadier General Talaei-Nick, the Deputy Defense Minister, said that there are some European countries willing to purchase Iranian drones, pointing to the requests sent to Iran for its drones. 

The general said that some locally-made defense products are for sale, adding that in case Iran is sure that drones would not be used inappropriately, the country is ready to export some of its drones, considering the domestic needs and the capacity of the production. 

On purchasing weapons, he said domestic products are prioritized, but in cases when foreign supplies are needed to meet the needs, especially in the field of air combat, the country will move according to its needs. 

The general said the type of equipment that is needed should be evaluated in comparison with its domestic ones and similar ones in other countries.

Moreover, he said, it should be confirmed in terms of price and quality by authorities and that buying weapons from abroad is a long-term process. 

General Talaei Nik also pointed to the training process which is needed for special types of weapons, where the foreign parties’ cooperation is also needed.  

The deputy defense minister added that financial provision and signing contracts must be done within a predetermined process, which take place within the framework of legal and international considerations.

The Defense Ministry official also said “exchanges with Russia” are still going on, noting that none of the “previously agreed exchanges” with Russia have been canceled.  

 

Indian spice manufacturers under scrutiny

Two of India's packaged spice manufacturers are under regulatory scrutiny in several countries after their products were allegedly found to contain carcinogenic elements, barely a year after cough syrups made in the South Asian nation were linked to the deaths of over 140 children in Africa.

Countries like Australia, New Zealand and the United States are weighing investigations into the packaged spices made by the companies after Hong Kong authorities raised a red flag over their quality.

This isn’t the first time that the two — among the largest companies in India — have faced these kinds of issues, with the US Food and Drug Administration ordering a recall of Everest spice mixes in 2023 and some MDH products in 2019, both due to salmonella contamination.

The Centre for Food Safety (CFS) in Hong Kong said in a statement on April 05, 2024 that it found ethylene oxide (ETO), a pesticide that can cause cancer if consumed in large amounts, in three types of packaged spices manufactured by MDH and one made by Everest. The products were taken off the shelves and recalled, the CFS said.

Taking its cue from the Hong Kong authorities, the Singapore Food Agency (SFA) a couple of weeks later recalled the Everest Fish Curry Masala product, saying in a statement that consumers who had purchased it were advised not to consume it.

The SFA also said, “As the implicated products in Hong Kong were imported into Singapore, the SFA has directed the importer to recall the products.” The agency clarified that although there is no immediate risk to consumption of food contaminated with low levels of ethylene oxide, long-term exposure may lead to health issues.

India’s Spice Board, a government agency that oversees spice exports, said that the limit for ETO varies between countries, from 0.02 milligram per kilogram of spices in places like the UK and Norway to 7 milligram per kilogram in Canada and the US.

Pesticides are widely used in agriculture in India, often leaving traces in food products. According to Indian government estimates, the cultivated area where chemical pesticide is used grew 33.4% from the fiscal year ending March 2019 to fiscal 2023, reaching 108,216 hectares. That was about seven times the area cultivated with biopesticides in 2023.

“We tend to look critically at the end product, but even more rigor is needed at the level of the ingredients,” said Devangshu Dutta, CEO at consultancy firm Third Eyesight, referring to the use of pesticides in cultivation. “Otherwise, we will end up kind of catching the product at the last point of control, which is not enough.”

Hong Kong and Singapore did not disclose the amount of ETO content in the recalled products. MDH and Everest had not responded to requests for comment by the time of publication.

Authorities elsewhere have also taken note of the allegations. “Food Standards Australia New Zealand is working with our international counterparts to understand the issue with federal, state and territory food enforcement agencies to determine if further action is required in Australia, e.g., a food recall,” the agency told Nikkei Asia in an email statement on Wednesday.

The regulatory scrutiny in the US, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore, raises questions over an export market worth about US$700 million, research firm Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said in a report on Wednesday.

“Swift investigations and the publication of findings are essential to re-establish global trust in Indian spices,” GTRI said, adding that the “lack of clear communication from government agencies is disappointing.”

Indian food has been under scrutiny in Europe as well. The European Commission Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed estimates that since the beginning of 2023, Indian food products were deemed to pose serious risks in 166 instances. These included nine cases of ethylene oxide found in food supplements and spices in countries including Sweden, Greece and Italy.

The recalls come at a time when New Delhi is rolling out incentives to support local manufacturers and exporters in transforming India into a US$5 trillion economy. India is the world’s largest exporter of spices with shipments worth US$3.9 billion in 2023, followed by Vietnam and Mexico, according to data provider Tendata. Those figures give India a market share of 37.2%, with Vietnam at 28.1% and Mexico at 9.6%.

Poor food quality in India stems from a general lack of awareness about food safety and insufficient resources to track ingredients, among other reasons, said US-based food and beverage consultancy AIB International in a report in October.

The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India found 16,582 samples unsafe in the fiscal year 2022, the latest such data available. That was a threefold jump from the previous year.

“Most of the food and beverage manufacturers in India are focused on reducing costs to make their product affordable to the public,” the report said. “As a result, many cannot prioritize food safety as a pillar of their business because it could prevent them from meeting their profit margins.”

“Food manufacturing and processing facilities can lack the resources to maintain proper hygiene,” it noted, adding that food-borne illnesses in India is estimated to top 100 million every year.

MENA: New proxy war ground for US and China

Tensions between the United States and China are expanding beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is likely to be one of many venues in what might be a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing.

We can imagine how Washington and Beijing’s respective global outlooks and ability to project (soft and hard) power could affect their future relations with the MENA region.

How MENA countries deal with each other and the role they play in the emerging global energy and economy transitions could influence how the two superpowers engage with the region in ways as interesting and important as what the superpowers are able to do themselves. On the MENA side of the equation, two critical dimensions are likely to shape their role in the future US-China competition in the region:

Intraregional politics

The first is how regional countries relate to each other with functional and practical economic and political integration, or sustained dysfunction and instability. Prior to the current war in Gaza, there was a trend toward de-escalation, stabilization, and integration.

Whenever that momentum might be regained, under the “functional and practical” route, we could imagine MENA nations looking in new ways at the lessons of pan-regional intergovernmental organizations.

The region could explore policies and mechanisms that emulate the practical benefits afforded to member states of other regional blocs like the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Such ideas could first lower trade barriers, then foster closer economic and commercial ties across the region.

Similarly, the thinking behind the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe could influence MENA governments’ approach to their citizens’ human rights and each other’s domestic affairs.

The functional and practical path would represent a MENA equipped with deliberative, consultative decision-making processes to act with agency, putting its own interests before the dictates of the US-Chinese competition.

The alternative path is easy to define, MENA governments continue to support various armed groups in proxy wars, and use that environment to ignore human rights, enabling outside players to exploit that dysfunction.

Levers of the future economy

The fossil fuel resources of Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates ‑ energy-rich club might soon include Egypt and Israel ‑ are likely to remain MENA’s main sources of leverage vis-à-vis Washington and Beijing — at least for the next couple of decades. Given the desire of two superpowers to secure the region’s oil and gas for themselves and their allies, or deny them to adversaries, US and Chinese companies will remain powerhouses in regional markets.

MENA is poised to influence the future global stage, and gain agency in the US-China competition over the region, by leveraging its energy and financial power in different ways in the future.

As the world turns to renewable energy, the region’s petrostates are simultaneously ramping up economic diversification into tech sectors, while also leveraging their wealth to finance climate-friendly energy projects and other green economy endeavors in their neighborhood and around the world.

The new frontier for the region’s resource- and capital-rich countries will be fostering innovation and science/technology/ideas hubs for the post-carbon economy that humanity intends to build in the 21st century.

Beside eventually waning hydrocarbons and ascending green energy, new logistical/transportation/energy networks have proliferated in the region and are likely to further increase its geopolitical and commercial significance.

Be it through long-established routes, such as the Suez Canal, or new and proposed ones, such as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, India-Middle East Corridor, and the Turkish-Iraqi-Emirati-Qatari Development Road, MENA is going to be sitting at the center of global trade networks. Many of the region’s seaports and airports will also play an expanded role in international affairs.

United States suspends work on Gaza pier

The US military said on Friday it has temporarily paused the offshore construction of a maritime pier because of weather conditions and instead would continue building it at the Israeli port of Ashdod.

The maritime pier, once built, will be placed off the coast of Gaza in a bid to speed the flow of humanitarian aid into the enclave.

"Forecasted high winds and high sea swells caused unsafe conditions for soldiers working on the surface of the partially constructed pier," the US military said in a statement.

"The partially built pier and military vessels involved in its construction have moved to the Port of Ashdod, where assembly will continue," it added.

Earlier this week, the Pentagon said about 50% of the pier had been constructed.

Israel has sought to demonstrate it is not blocking aid to Gaza, especially since President Joe Biden issued a stark warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying Washington’s policy could shift if Israel fails to take steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers.

US. officials and aid groups say some progress has been made but warn it is insufficient, amid stark warnings of imminent famine among Gaza's 2.3 million people.

 

US threatens ICC over Israeli arrest warrants

In another sign United States allowing Israel to violate international law, Washington stands accused of threatening a UN court from issuing arrest warrants against the Israeli leaders.

Senior Republican officials say President Biden’s administration backs their stance toward the International Criminal Court (ICC) if the body goes ahead with its plan to issue arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Speaking to reporters, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson says there is support among Democrats in the White House for the ICC to withdraw its position amid reports the UN Court is set to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu as well as other high-ranking officials including War Minister Yoav Gallant and military chief of staff Herzi Halevi for war crimes. 

In a direct threat to the ICC, Johnson underlined that “they’d better not do that … I think that it would make us as a nation respond in kind to the ICC”. 
“I think a group of senators and House members who would move expeditiously and we might just turn the table on the ICC. They better be careful,” the Republican leader warned. 
According to Johnson, who spoke to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday, the Biden administration totally agrees.  

Blinken “confirmed that the position of the White House is our position … they are calling for the ICC to stand down,” Johnson told reporters. 

According to Axios, Congress has informed the ICC that any arrest warrants against Israeli leaders will be met with US retaliation with legislation to that effect already in the works. 

In a statement, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, echoed those warnings from his party leadership.

The Israeli occupation regime does not recognize the authority of the ICC, but issuing warrants would mean that the 124 countries that have signed up to the body, including some of Tel Aviv’s closest Western allies, would be obliged to arrest Israeli officials if they enter their territory.

Many have called out the US hypocrisy in its response to war crimes investigations against the Israelis, whose war on Gaza has so far led to the murder of around 35,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children. Using starvation as a weapon of war in Gaza is another Israeli war crime that reports indicate the ICC is pursuing the arrest warrants for. 

Last year, Biden welcomed an ICC decision to issue an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying it was justified over what the US president said was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia says the warrant against Putin is a meaningless campaign by the West to damage Russia’s reputation and denies war crimes during its military actions against the US and NATO-backed Ukrainian army. 

“This is evidence of the stratification of consciousness,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a post on social media in which she hinted that Israel is a satellite of the United States. 

“On the one hand, the ICC judges are under US sanctions; on the other hand, Washington fully supported, if not stimulated, the issuance of ICC warrants against the Russian leadership; on the third, the American political system does not recognize the legitimacy of this structure in relation to itself and its satellites.” Zakharova pointed out. 

The Russian diplomat was responding to White House Press Secretary Karin Jean-Pierre who stated, “The US authorities believe that the investigation of the International Criminal Court into Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip, as well as the issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli high-ranking officials in this regard, goes beyond the jurisdiction of the court.”

ICC arrest warrants would be one of the most severe diplomatic setbacks for the Israeli occupation regime and its political and military leadership since the start of the war on Gaza.

Tel Aviv is already facing a genocide case, brought by South Africa, at the International Court of Justice as well as widespread accusations of indiscriminately carpet-bombing civilian infrastructure in Gaza and causing famine by preventing aid supplies from entering the enclave. 

Experts have highlighted that they do not believe the prospect of any ICC action would derail negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, saying such reports emerging in the US are part of wider tactics being deployed by Washington and Tel Aviv to delay the warrants being issued. 

Israeli media say Netanyahu is worried about the ICC issuing an arrest warrant against him, as reports indicate the US is lobbying its Western allies to pile pressure on the top UN Court. 

 

Understanding Middle East grand bargain

The Biden administration and Saudi Arabia are finalizing an agreement for United States security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance, even as an Israel-Saudi normalization deal envisioned as part of a Middle East “grand bargain” remains elusive, reports Reuters.

A working draft lays out principles and proposals aimed at putting back on track a US-led effort to reshape the volatile region that was derailed by Hamas’ October 07, 2023 attack on Israel and the outbreak of war in Gaza.

It appears to be a long-shot strategy that faces numerous obstacles, not least the uncertainty over how the Gaza conflict will unfold.

The US and Saudi negotiators have, for now, prioritized a bilateral security accord that would then be part of a wider package presented to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would have to decide whether to make concessions to secure historic ties with Riyadh.

“We’re very close to reaching an agreement” on the US-Saudi portion of the package, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday, predicting that details could be ironed out “in very short order.”

That part of the plan is likely to call for formal US guarantees to defend the kingdom as well as Saudi access to more advanced US weaponry in return for halting Chinese arms purchases and restricting Beijing’s investment in the country.

The US-Saudi security accord is also expected to involve sharing emerging technologies with Riyadh, including artificial intelligence.

The terms are expected to be finalized within weeks.

The conditions that Netanyahu will face to join a broader deal are expected to include winding down the war in Gaza and agreeing on a pathway to Palestinian statehood, both of which Netanyahu has steadfastly resisted.

US officials hope Netanyahu will not want to pass up the historic opportunity to open relations with Saudi Arabia, guardian of Islam’s holiest sites, but are mindful of the domestic political pressures he is under, including keeping Israel’s most right-wing government ever from collapsing.

A broader pact giving the world's biggest oil exporter US military protection together with normalization with Israel would unite two long-time foes and bind Riyadh to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region.

A normalization deal would also bolster Israel's defenses against arch-foe Iran and give US President Joe Biden a diplomatic victory ahead of the November 05, 2024 presidential election.

Overhanging these efforts is Netanyahu’s threat to launch a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are sheltering, despite US entreaties to refrain from an operation that could mean further heavy civilian casualties.

United States losing ground to Russia in Africa

The expected withdrawal of US forces from Niger will endanger US counter-terrorism operations and hand Russia more influence in Africa as American and western ties on the continent fracture, reports The Hill. 

Around 1,000 troops in Niger are expected to eventually withdraw from the country after the conclusion of ongoing high-level talks between Niamey and Washington following a military coup in the African country last year, the Pentagon has said. 

A forced withdrawal from Niger is a major setback for US military as it fights against Islamic extremist groups across the Sahel, a volatile region that stretches from Senegal in western Africa to the Red Sea.

At risk for the US is not just keeping ISIS, Boko Haram and other insurgent groups in check, but also the growing influence of Russia, Iran and China, all of which are jockeying for power in Africa along with the West. Western powers like the U.S. and European Union seem to be losing the battle in the Sahel.

“There’s been this hollowing out of all of the international security cooperation,” said  Joseph Siegle, director of research of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the Pentagon-funded National Defense University. “They were all part of a broader regional effort to try to support those countries.” 

Siegle attributes the shift to a series of governments being toppled by military juntas and an anti-western disinformation campaign supported by malicious actors in Russia or other hostile nations. But he said closer ties with Russia will harm those countries in the future, because Moscow is not investing economically into those nations.

“These countries are going to feel huge strains, and they’ll continue to try to put on a good face to show this is working, but it’s not something they’re going to be able to sustain,” he added. “Something’s going to have to give here.” 

The immediate risk of a Niger withdrawal is that the Sahel could erupt into more violence as the U.S. and France, along with other western powers, face eroding influence with military juntas that have close ties with Russia and other rival powers. 

Threats from al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked insurgent groups have already spiked in other countries ruled by military governments, including Mali, which booted French forces in 2022 but has since seen terrorist groups double their territorial control.

 

Iran and Russia: Deepening security relations

The analyst of the American think tank, Foundation for Defense Democracies (FDD), has expressed alarm over the deepening of security relations between Tehran and Moscow.

The think tank warned that Ukraine and Israel are two battlegrounds where Tehran and Moscow not only benefit from strengthening their relationship but also use them to rearrange the global order.

According to the Russian state media RIA Novosti recently reported that Russia has expressed readiness to expand military and technical cooperation with Iran. 

Russian and Iranian defense ministers discussed strengthening security relations between the two countries during a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Kazakhstan. The SCO is a security group with members including Russia, India, China, Iran, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The think tank, citing media reports, stated that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu emphasized the significant increase in military contracts between Tehran and Moscow during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart.

Senior FDD analyst Behnam Ben Taleblu believes that Russia and Iran have increasingly been able to set aside areas of tension and disagreement between them in order to confront common enemies. 

He went on to point out that the decision of the two countries to strengthen their relationship is not in response to Western pressure, raising alarm bells for the West to increase pressure and raise the costs of this relationship for both sides. The West must work on a strategy that focuses on magnifying the differences between Moscow and Tehran and highlighting them.

Ivana Stradner another analyst from FDD believes that with the approval of new packages by the United States for Ukraine, Russia is seeking to attract more assistance from its allies. 

In fact, Russia’s victory is also a success for Iran. Tehran and Moscow believe that the United States is their common enemy, and for this reason, both countries have united against Washington.

This analytical report stipulated that the confrontation with America forms the basis of cooperation between Russia and Iran. 

The meeting of the defense ministers of the two countries took place after the disclosure of confidential Russian government documents on April 17. These documents emphasized the need for greater coordination between Moscow, Iran, China, and North Korea to change the global order under US tutelage. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin also welcomed cooperation with Iran in the energy, trade, agriculture, and technology sectors in December, following increased economic cooperation between Moscow and Tehran to bypass Western sanctions.

The FDD also mentioned Russia and Iran’s cooperation in drone technologies, stating that the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada imposed new sanctions on April 25 against entities supporting Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry.

The final part of this report claimed that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Tehran has provided hundreds of UAVs to Moscow in exchange for advanced military equipment.

Russia and Iran have both vehemently refuted allegations that Tehran sent Moscow drones to use in the conflict in Ukraine.

In July 2022, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made the first anti-Iran claims, saying purportedly that Washington had information indicating that the Islamic Republic was getting ready to give Russia up to several hundred drones, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline for use in the conflict.

Experts and the media both emphasized the significance of Iranian drones, with much of the media coverage focused on increasing pressure on Iran. The Western media cannot deny the positive role of Iranian drones in the country's foreign policies.    

In an analysis, titled “Can Iran’s Shahed drones in Ukraine help ease tension with Russia?” military affairs expert and journalist Anton Mardasov discussed the impact of Iranian drones on the relations between Iran and Russia on the Al-Monitor website on August 06, 2023. 

According to Al-Monitor, low-cost Iranian drones have significantly impacted the battlefield. “Delivery of drones gave Iran the right to talk to Moscow on an equal footing,” Nikolay Kozhanov, a professor at the Persian Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, told Al-Monitor. 

 

 

Could Arabs join anti-Iran alliance?

On April 13, Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel, prompting Jordan to assist in defense. Initial reports suggested broader Arab involvement, indicating a potential shift in regional dynamics. However, these claims were later refuted. Despite this, Israeli leaders and some in Washington saw it as a signal of potential Arab alignment against Iran.

Israel's restrained response to the attack led to speculation about its role as a regional coalition leader against Iran. Yet, this perspective overlooks the complex realities in the region. Arab-Israeli cooperation faces challenges, including frustrations over Israeli policies in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

Arab states, often labeled as a "Sunni alliance," prioritize balancing relationships with Iran and Israel to avoid wider conflict and protect domestic legitimacy. While they provided assistance to Israel, it was driven by maintaining ties with the United States rather than aligning with Israel.

Efforts to counter Iran are driven by maintaining relations with the U.S. Gulf Arab states have engaged with Tehran to manage tensions, seeking diplomatic dialogue over retribution. Despite shared concerns about Iran's activities, Arab states prioritize normalization with Iran over direct confrontation.

Arab states are cautious about overtly supporting Israel due to domestic costs, especially concerning Palestinian statehood. They aim to balance multiple relationships and avoid alignment with anti-Iran blocs, preferring dialogue to prevent conflict escalation.

Arab states can play a crucial role in preventing escalation between Iran and Israel by facilitating communication and encouraging restraint. However, closer cooperation with Israel is hindered by ongoing conflicts, limiting political engagement and economic ties.

In the near term, efforts will focus on mediation and conflict prevention, with realistic expectations about Arab-Israeli cooperation. While technical collaboration on common concerns may continue, high-profile political engagement with Israel depends on resolving ongoing conflicts.

Floating Gaza Pier: Growing Suspicions

Satellite images released indicate that work at Gaza pier in the Mediterranean Sea is going on at an accelerated speed by the US military, but US motives are also being questioned.

Reportedly, the Pentagon has confirmed media reports that the pier that is being built by the US military near Gaza will cost at least $320 million, which is double the original estimate announced for the project. 

“The cost has not just risen. It has exploded,” Senator Roger Wicker told Reuters. 

“This dangerous effort with marginal benefit will now cost the American taxpayers at least US$320 million to operate the pier for only 90 days,” the Republican lawmaker added. 

Around 1,000 US military personnel have been deployed to Gaza’s waters, including from the army and navy, who are working in close coordination with the Israeli army and navy to build the pier that the Pentagon says will be operational in May.

The huge investment has raised question marks on how this costly project will help the man-made starvation across the Gaza Strip.

Once the aid reaches Gaza, it will undergo another land inspection by the Israeli military, despite being inspected in Cyprus before it reaches the people of Gaza. 

Who will distribute this aid inside Gaza? Who will send it to the north where food and water are needed the most? These are among the many key questions that the White House has declined to provide any answers to.

More importantly, more than 90 aid trucks are being inspected but blocked from entering Gaza. A leaked internal US State Department memo has admitted that Israel rejects aid trucks from entering the enclave in violation of international humanitarian law. 

Essentially, the Israeli occupation forces, which have killed a record number of aid workers numerous times, will be in charge of handling the aid via this questionable project.

The United Nations has been calling on the Israeli occupation regime to allow a significant increase in the number of humanitarian trucks to enter the enclave to avoid famine. 

500 trucks entered the Strip on a daily basis before the war. UN officials say the daily figures needed now vastly exceed pre-war levels.

Last week, the UN pointed out that the average number of trucks entering Gaza every day during April was 200, which is far below the required level. 

Critics of the US project say it is difficult to see how 90 extra trucks, should they reach the Palestinians, will alleviate the humanitarian crisis given the time, costs and the number of service members involved in the US port being built off the Gaza coast. 

“How much will taxpayers be on the hook once – or if – the pier is finally constructed?” Wicker noted. 

The administration of US President Joe Biden, which announced the project in early March, has been accused of allowing excessive food shortage in Gaza under its watch by refusing to pressure the Israeli occupation regime to stop preventing food and water from entering the enclave.

There are serious questions over the real motives of the US for establishing the pier. It has been criticized by aid agencies as glossing over the humanitarian crisis facing the Palestinians. 

There are suspicions that the US wants to maintain the port and turn it into a military base or use the floating pier to transfer portions of the Gaza population elsewhere in what is legally defined as ethnic cleansing. 

In a statement, the Israeli military said it is involved in the port’s construction with logistical support as well as an Israeli military brigade, which includes thousands of soldiers, along with the Israeli navy and air force. 

The only party that is not involved in the project is the Palestinians, who have once again been sidelined. Hamas has warned it would target foreign forces, uninvited, on Palestinian land or water. 

“We categorically reject any non-Palestinian presence in Gaza, whether at sea or on land, and we will deal with any military force present in these places, Israeli or otherwise … as an occupying power,” Khalil al-Hayya, a top Hamas political official, told the Associated Press last week. 

He added Israeli forces “have not destroyed more than 20% of (Hamas’) capabilities, neither human nor in the field.” 

 

US-built floating pier in Mediterranean Sea

The United States military has released photos showing a floating pier being built in the Mediterranean Sea to help increase humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza.

Logistics vessels and personnel can be seen assembling the pier from steel segments, next to a US Navy ship. Costing about US$320 million, the pier and a causeway attached to the shore should be operational in a week.

The goal is to deliver aid equivalent to as many as two million meals a day to Gaza to help avert a famine there.

An UN-backed assessment said last month that 1.1 million people were facing catastrophic hunger and that famine was imminent in northern Gaza by May.

"Right now, you're seeing construction of that floating, temporary pier, and then, you'll start to see construction of the causeway," US defense department spokeswoman Sabrina Singh had told reporters in Washington on Monday.

"Eventually, that causeway will be... pushed into the coastline and secured by the Israel Defense Forces," she added.

The pier will be ready a week from now, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday.

The UN has said a maritime corridor can never be a substitute for delivery by land, and land routes are the only way to bring in the bulk of supplies needed.

Satellite images published by Planet Labs meanwhile appeared to show the pier was being built next to the USNS Benavidez, a Military Sealift Command roll-on/roll-off ship, 11km north-west of the coast of northern Gaza.

A senior US military official said last week that the Israeli military's security role meant "no US boots will be on the ground" as part of the mission to construct and operate what is known officially as the Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore, or JLOTS.

An unnamed "third party" would also be driving aid lorries down the causeway, the official added.

Hundreds of sailors and soldiers involved in the operation will live and sleep aboard a British Navy logistical support ship, RFA Cardigan Bay, which has been deployed to the area.

On Saturday, the IDF confirmed that the Israeli Navy would secure the forces operating the pier and said it was committed to increasing the amount of humanitarian aid transferred daily into Gaza.

A senior Hamas official told the Associated Press last week that the group — which is proscribed as a terrorist organization by Israel and the US — rejected any non-Palestinian presence in Gaza, whether at sea or on land and would deal with any military force present in these places... as an occupying power.

He spoke a day after Israel said terrorists had fired mortars at the site during a visit by UN personnel. No injuries were reported.

The IDF also released photos and videos of what it described as the extensive preparations being carried out by its forces at a 67 acre holding area where aid from the floating pier will be brought.

The site is just inland from the makeshift jetty built by the US charity World Central Kitchen in March for a maritime corridor that was suspended after seven of its aid workers were killed in an Israeli air strike.

The US military official said the floating pier should be able to handle about 90 lorry loads of aid per day initially, and then quickly scale up to about 150 lorry loads. A lorry can typically carry about 20 tons of supplies.

The UN has blamed the severe food shortage on Israeli restrictions on deliveries, the ongoing hostilities and the breakdown of order.

On Friday, the UN said a daily average of 192 aid lorries entered Gaza during April via the Egyptian-controlled Rafah and Israeli-controlled Kerem Shalom crossings, which are in southern Gaza.

The figure did not cover two recently-opened Israeli-controlled entry points in central and northern Gaza.

Israeli Defense Ministry body Cogat said an average of 350 lorries entered Gaza daily through all crossings in the week beginning April 07.

It has insisted that Israel is not limiting aid deliveries and has blamed the UN for failing to distribute it to those in need inside Gaza.

 

Iran denounces new sanctions

The Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani has refuted the charges made against Tehran in a recent resolution passed by the European Parliament, and denounced the new sanctions that the United States, Britain and Canada have placed on a number of Iranian citizens and firms.

The spokesperson also attacked several European nations for adhering to the harsh policies of the US administration by criticizing the European Parliament's decision against Iran.

He emphasized that Iran’s military capabilities are built in accordance with its needs to preserve territorial integrity and sovereignty, defend national security and interests, and provide a legitimate and deterrent defense against external threats and acts of aggression.

According to Kanaani, “The Islamic Republic of Iran is a major partner of the international community in providing peace and security to the region and the world, as well as in the fight against international terrorism.”

Imposing the sanctions, he said, the sanctions against Iran’s defense sector will actually present a chance to advance the nation’s military and defense capabilities and self-sufficiency, rather than weakening its resolve to strengthen its defense of its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interests.

“Many nations and governments, specifically in the West Asia region, hold out no hope of the role of the US and its European allies in the establishment of stability and security in the region anymore,” the spokesman continued. 

His remarks followed the announcement of further sanctions against Iran on Thursday by the US, Britain, and Canada in response to its retaliatory strike against Israeli military targets on April 13.

The three states said that they will punish people and companies “closely involved” in Iran’s drone manufacture in order to target the country’s drone and missile sectors.

By a vote of 357 to 20, the European Parliament on Thursday passed a resolution denouncing Iran’s use of drones and missiles against the Israeli regime and urging the imposition of more penalties on Iranian organizations.

The Treasury Department and the State Department said on Tuesday that the United States government has imposed charges and penalties on four Iranian nationals in connection with an alleged multi-year cyber operation that targeted over a dozen American firms.

The Treasury Department issued sanctions on two firms, Dadeh Afzar Arman and Mehrsam Andisheh Saz Nik, which it claimed employed the individual defendants and served as front organizations for Iran’s Revolution Guards cyber command.

The business targets, according to federal prosecutors in Manhattan, were mostly defense contractors with access to confidential data; other targets included an accountancy firm and a hotel company located in New York. 

“These actors targeted more than a dozen US companies and government entities through cyber operations, including spear phishing and malware attacks,” the US Treasury Department said in a statement.

The defendants, according to the prosecution, used spearfishing—a tactic that entails deceiving email recipients into clicking on harmful links—and impersonating women to win over people’s trust in order to infect computers with malware.

The Israeli airstrike, which took place in Damascus’s Mezzeh district, resulted in the deaths of seven military advisors from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). Iranian officials have vowed a decisive response to what they described as a violation of international obligations and conventions.

Zahra Ershadi, Iran’s deputy permanent representative to the UN, told the 15-member Security Council that Iran reserves the right "to take a decisive response" to the attack, saying Israel violated the founding UN Charter, international law, and the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises.

Israel’s crime clearly breached the basic principles of diplomatic and consular immunity, as well as the 1961 Convention on Diplomatic Relations, the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations, and the 1973 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes, the diplomat stated.

 

First step to make Gaza a US military base

A maritime corridor is expected to commence operations early May. Construction began in the Mediterranean Sea Thursday off the coast of Gaza to assemble the pier.

Once assembled, the pier will facilitate 90 trucks loaded with humanitarian aid a day into Gaza, with up to 150 when fully operational.

A senior US military official said around 1,000 US Army and Navy soldiers and sailors will work on the mission and live out of a British ship called the Cardigan Bay.

The mission will not involve US boots on the ground, and the military is coordinating closely with Israel to ensure safety and security.

"We believe we have developed a comprehensive integrated security plan with the Israeli Defense Forces to address force protection of American troops," the official said.

Another US administration official said the pier comes amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.

"This is a humanitarian initiative with a humanitarian purpose," the official said.

Aid will be coming in off pallets from the island of Cyprus through the transport of commercial ships, and arrive at a large floating dock miles from Gaza.

Small Army boats will transport trucks with cargo to a pier anchored to Gaza's shore and drive into the strip and a secure area.

The United Nations has warned of a coming famine in northern Gaza unless the humanitarian crisis is addressed.

President Biden first announced the pier in March and initial estimates were slated to be completed by the end of April or early May.

 

United States crucifying right to protest and freedom of expression

The United States sermons other countries about the right to protest and freedom of speech but it is suppressing dissenting voices on college campuses throughout the country.

The police are cracking down on students in universities who are protesting Washington’s financial, political, and arms support for Israel, which has been committing unthinkable crimes in the Gaza Strip since October last year.

Stifling peaceful protests and freedom of speech in American universities has put into serious question the values that the US has been claiming it stands for.

President Joe Biden, like many other Congress members and pro-Israel bigots, has accused the students protesting Israel’s crimes of anti-Semitism.

When asked on Monday what is his message to the protesters at college campuses, Biden said, “I condemn the anti-Semitic protests.”

The statement by the president is absurd and a sheer lie. The students, some of them Jews, are clearly noticing that Israel is committing genocide in the Gaza Strip. In fact, organizations such as Jewish Voice for Peace have played a leading role in the protests.

Possibly, Biden and hawks in Congress are using the anti-Semitic slander to justify financial, military, political, and diplomatic support for the bloodthirsty regime of Benyamin Netanyahu.

Those people around the world who had been cherishing the United States for its self-proclaimed defense of democracy, freedom of opinion, and right to peaceful protests now feel disappointed and realize that they were badly mistaken.

Crackdown on students on campuses brings to mind the Kent State massacre of May 4, 1970, in which four Ohio college students were killed by the Ohio National Guard during a protest against the Vietnam War.

House representative Marjorie Taylor Green and senators Tom Cotton and Josh Hawley, and other leading Senate Republicans, including Lindsey Graham and Charles Grassley, are demanding that Biden go even further. The senators signed a letter on Tuesday calling on the administration to carry out criminal prosecutions and deportations for participants in the demonstrations.

The content of their letter is shameful as it declares that there is an outbreak of anti-Semitic, pro-terrorist mobs on college campuses, led by pro-Hamas rioters. 

On Sunday, Columbia Law School faculty condemned mass arrests and suspensions of students, saying such moves cast serious doubt on the university’s respect for the rule-of-law values that we teach.

“While we as a faculty disagree about the relevant political issues and express no opinion on the merits of the protest, we are writing to urge respect for basic rule-of-law values that ought to govern our University,” 54 law professors wrote, The Intercept reported.

A country that claims it is the leader of the free world but its police are storming the universities to arrest peaceful students is a serious cause of concern. Surely, it would embolden despots and dogmatic parliament members, like Tom Cotton and Taylor Green, in certain other countries.

The Biden administration is providing highly sophisticated lethal arms to Israel and vetoes UN Security Council resolutions against the regime. Congress is also ratifying billions of dollars in military aid for Israel, yet they expect nobody to protest either Israel’s horrible crimes or their complicity in these acts.

According to the Washington Post, one of the demands of the students is for universities to separate themselves from any companies that are empowering Israel's military efforts in Gaza. 

Washington’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza has gone to the extreme. Decision makers in the US are refusing to look into the mirror to find out that their support for Israel has been causing anger and disappointment in the US and around the world.

It is for such illogical and immoral support for hawks in Israel that prominent literary group PEN America has canceled its annual award ceremony after dozens of nominated writers withdrew in protest of the Israeli war in Gaza. The group, which is dedicated to free expression, announced that it was canceling the April 29 event.

A series of open letters signed by PEN nominees in recent weeks have criticized the group for choosing sides against Gaza in the war.

In a letter signed last month, several famous writers including Michelle Alexander, Naomi Klein and Zaina Arafat said the group was acting as a "cultural front for American exceptionalism" and was complicit in "normalizing genocide".

The U. has sent freedom of expression and the right to peaceful protests to the slaughterhouse through its unlawful and immoral support for butchers in Israel.

It is not just the administration, Congress or pro-Israel lobbyists who are coming hard on universities, movements and organizations that are calling for an end to the carnage in Gaza.

Most media outlets in Israel have also resorted to censorship in the Gaza war. For example, according to the Intercept, the New York Times has instructed journalists covering Israel’s war on Gaza to restrict the use of the terms “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing” and to “avoid” using the phrase “occupied territory” when describing Palestinian land.

 

 

Resilience of Russian Economy, beyond doubt

Bloomberg reports that Russian government has touted robust domestic demand in boosting its 2024 growth forecast on Tuesday. While some might be tempted to dismiss the move as geopolitical bravado in the face of the US stepping up Ukraine aid, Russian economic strength is real.

In fact, Moscow’s new 2.8% GDP projection weighs in under the IMF’s latest ‑ also upgraded forecast, of 3.2%, released last week.

It might be tempting to put this resilience down to a massive defense build-up. But the Washington-based IMF had much the same assessment as President Vladimir Putin’s team: a strong job market and swift wage rises are helping to power consumer spending. The fund even cautioned “there are some signs of overheating,” with unemployment at a record low.

What about all the Western sanctions, the mass emigration of Russian talent and the departure of a number of global corporate giants? Alexander Isakov at Bloomberg Economics offers some insight.

The sanctions on Russian energy aren’t as tight as they were for, say, Venezuela and Iran, thanks in large part to the West not wanting to worsen its own cost-of-living shock with a further surge in oil prices.

Some financial sanctions had already been imposed in 2014 after the Crimea invasion, and Russia had already amortized that cost.

Russian households remain confident thanks to a tight labor market, with the jobless rate at 2.8%. A largely voluntary military recruitment model, using monetary incentives, has let consumers keep calm and carry on.

Since some large multinationals have stayed in place, will Russia’s economy just keep on ticking?

Isakov notes that part of job market’s tightness is indeed a side effect of fiscal outlays tied to the war, funded in part by energy exports. Moscow needs crude prices to stay around the current US$90 a barrel levels to keep the budget balanced — a slump to, say, US$60 could make things difficult.

The IMF sees growth slowing to 1.8% next year, and cautioned that Russia’s potential growth rate has dropped to around 1.25% from 1.7% before the war.

This would mean that Russia’s income per capita may no longer converge toward Western European levels in the medium to long term, but for now, Russia’s chugging right along

 

US warns Pakistan of potential risk of sanctions

The United States warned on Wednesday countries doing business with Iran faced the “potential risk of sanctions,” as President Ebrahim Raisi concluded a three-day visit to Pakistan where his government signed eight memoranda of understanding (MoUs) for cooperation in different fields and to boost trade to US$10 billion.

The Iranian president arrived in Islamabad on Monday as the two Muslim neighbors sought to mend ties after unprecedented tit-for-tat military strikes earlier this year. The visit also took place as tensions continued to remain high in the Middle East after Iran launched airstrikes on Israel a week ago and Israel retaliated with its own attack on Friday.

During his stay in Pakistan, Raisi held several official meetings in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi to discuss issues related to trade, connectivity, energy and people-to-people contacts.

Asked about his engagements in Pakistan and signing of MoUs, US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel cautioned against possible sanctions in a brief response.

“Just let me say broadly, we advise anyone considering business deals with Iran to be aware of the potential risk of sanctions,” he said. “But ultimately, the Government of Pakistan can speak to their own foreign policy pursuits.”

He was also asked about the US administration’s decision to announce sanctions against three Chinese and one Belarus-based entity supplying missile components to Pakistan last week.

“The sanctions were made because these were entities that were proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and the means of their delivery,” Patel said. “These were entities based in the PRC (Peoples Republic of China), in Belarus, and that we have witnessed to have supplied equipment and other applicable items to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.”

“We’re going to continue to disrupt and take actions against proliferation networks and concerning weapons of mass destruction procurement activities wherever they may occur,” he added.

 

US Senate passes Ukraine and Israel funding

The Senate on Tuesday passed a US$95 billion emergency foreign aid package, ending months of bitter fighting over US$61 billion for the war in Ukraine that had deeply divided the Republican Party. The measure passed by a vote of 79 to 18 and now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.

The package also includes US$15 billion in military aid for Israel and US$9 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and other war-torn areas, which became another flashpoint among conservative Republicans who argued it didn’t have adequate safeguards to keep it from going to Hamas.

It provides US$8 billion in security assistance to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

It includes language to force the Chinese owner of TikTok to divest from the popular app, which is used by more than 140 million Americans, or otherwise face a ban within the United States.

The centerpiece of the package is US$47.7 billion that would flow through the Defense Department to provide training, equipment, weapons, logistics support and supplies to help Ukraine’s military, as well as US$13.4 billion to replenish US equipment sent to Ukraine and US$20.5 billion for US Armed Forces support in Europe.

It also includes US$9.5 billion in economic aid to Ukraine structured as a forgivable loan, an idea that former President Trump gave life to when the Senate passed a previous version of the US$95 billion assistance package in February.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who worked for months to get Ukraine aid passed, hailed the vote as a landmark moment.

“Today the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world. America will always defend democracy in its hour of need. We tell our allies we will stand with you. We tell our adversaries don’t mess with us,” Schumer declared on the Senate floor.

McConnell took to the floor to hail the prosperity the United States has enjoyed because it’s a global leader but told colleagues that that leadership comes with responsibilities to allies who help maintain peace and order throughout much of the world.

And he chastised colleagues who dragged out the debate over helping Ukraine based on what he called the “sheer fiction” that supporting the war is not a vital national security interest.

United States godfathering Israel

Lately, the United States blocked a United Nations Security Council resolution that would have recognized a Palestinian state. Twelve members of the Security Council had voted in favor of the resolution, while two countries – the UK and Switzerland – abstained. The United States vetoed it.

The Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, sharply criticized the US veto, saying in a statement that it was unfair, immoral, and unjustified, and defies the will of the international community, which strongly supports the State of Palestine obtaining full membership in the United Nations.

Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz praised the US for vetoing what he called a shameful proposal.

US State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel had announced earlier that the US would vote against the Security Council resolution, saying that the US has been very clear, consistently, that premature actions in New York, even with the best intentions, will not achieve statehood for the Palestinian people, referring to the headquarters of the United Nations.

He also noted there was no unanimity as to whether the Palestinians met the criteria for membership as a state in the UN, saying the US believes future statehood should be dependent on negotiations between Israel and representatives of the Palestinians.

“The most expeditious path towards statehood for the Palestinian people is through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority with the support of the United States and other partners who share this goal,” Patel said.

Palestinian attempts for recognition as a full member state began in 2011. They are currently a non-member observer state, a status that was granted in November 2012.

At the time, UN Ambassador of the Palestinian Territories Riyad Mansour called the step a historic moment, adding that he hoped the Security Council will elevate itself to implanting the global consensus on the two-state solution by admitting the state of Palestine for full membership.

Israel’s UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan condemned Friday’s move as consideration of a Palestinian terror state.

“This won’t be a regular state. It will be a Palestine-Nazi state, an entity that achieved statehood despite being committed to terror and Israel’s annihilation,” Erdan added.

The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed disappointment over the UN Security Council's failure to pass a draft resolution that would have granted full UN membership to the State of Palestine.

The ministry said this decision contributes to the ongoing challenges faced by the region, particularly by allowing the continuation of Israeli occupation forces' actions without repercussions.

The ministry emphasized that the obstruction of Palestine's full membership in the UN hinders peace efforts and allows violations of the international law to persist.

Saudi Arabia reiterated its call for the international community to take decisive actions to stop attacks on civilians in the Gaza Strip and to support the Palestinian right to self-determination and statehood. This state, according to Saudi Arabia, should be established within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, aligning with the parameters set forth by the Arab Peace Initiative and other relevant international resolutions.