Washington is focused on Chinese President
Xi Jinping as President Joe Biden grapples with Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s violent military campaign against
Ukraine.
Biden administration officials are calling on Xi and his
government to join other nations in condemning Russia, while warning China of
consequences if it tries to evade export controls on Moscow.
China is viewed as a key player because of its influence
with Russia, which is expected to grow as Moscow finds itself further isolated
by Western sanctions.
“If there’s anybody that could make a difference, it’s Xi
Jinping,” said Charles Kupchan, who served as Senior Director for European
affairs at the National Security Council in the Obama White House. “China is
Russia’s lifeline right now, and if the Chinese discover the gumption to tell
Putin that it’s enough, I think the impact would be very considerable.”
“I do not yet see any signs that China is going to head down
the road,” he added.
CIA Director William Burns told Senate lawmakers
on Thursday that Xi has been unsettled by the war playing out in
Ukraine and the unity it has inspired in the West. Burns assessed that the
Chinese leader is worried about global economic consequences as well as damage
to his reputation from being associated with the ugliness of Russia’s
war.
“I think the Chinese leadership, President Xi, has invested
a lot in partnership with President Putin and Russia. I don’t think that’s
going to change anytime soon. It’s for a lot of very cold-blooded reasons. I
do, however, think that President Xi is unsettled by what he has seen transpire
in the last 15 days in Ukraine,” Burns told the Senate Intelligence
Committee.
“That’s raised some question marks in the minds of Chinese
leadership as they look at what is going to be an enduring partnership but
maybe with a few more concerns than they had 16 days ago,” he said.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki on
Wednesday pointed to a handful of actions China has taken that were viewed
positively by the West, including Beijing’s decision to abstain from voting on
a UN Security Council resolution condemning the Ukraine invasion. Some believed
China would vote against it in a nod to Russia.
Psaki also said that China has largely abided by sanctions
the administration has imposed on Russia thus far.
“I would note, though, that if any country tries to evade or
work around our economic measures, they will experience the consequences of
those actions,” Psaki said.
“Our assessment right now is that they’re abiding by the
requirements that have been put in place, but we would continue to encourage
any country to think a lot about what role they want to play in history as we
all look back,” she said.
The administration has stepped up its rhetoric with China in
recent days.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the New York
Times in an interview published Tuesday that the US would penalize Chinese
firms that violate US export controls imposed on Russia by preventing them from
using American software.
“They have their own self-interest to not supply this stuff
to Russia. So they’re not doing it out of the goodness of their heart. It would
be devastating to China’s ability to produce these chips,” Raimondo told
the Times.
Days earlier, Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged
China to use its voice to condemn Russian aggression during a call with his
Chinese counterpart.
“They have an opportunity for leadership here and we are all
urging them to take it,” Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
Victoria Nuland told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on
Tuesday.
The White House failed to convince China to avert a Russian
invasion of Ukraine before it happened.
Xi and Putin celebrated their close relationship in an
in-person meeting ahead of the opening ceremony of the Olympics in Beijing. The
two sides released a joint statement declaring the China-Russia relationship
had no limits.
Burns on Thursday described that as the “most sweeping
expression of their commitment to partnership” that the US has seen but noted
that the war has since unsettled Beijing. At one point during his testimony,
Burns said China’s own intelligence didn’t appear to foresee Putin’s
attack.
The US is also watching China closely over concerns that
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will embolden Xi to launch a military takeover of
Taiwan, the self-governed democratic island that Beijing views as a rogue
territory.
The administration in early March sent a high-level,
non-governmental delegation to Taiwan in a show of American solidarity. The
United States is required by law to provide Taipei with the military means and
assistance necessary to repel a possible Chinese invasion.
It’s unclear whether Biden will seek a call with Xi about
Ukraine. The two leaders last spoke one-on-one during a virtual meeting in
November. The White House made clear after Russia began its invasion that Biden
was open to a call with Xi.
“China is not going to reassess its view on the China-Russia
relationship fundamentally on this alone,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a senior
fellow at the Brookings Institution. “But we can make it more painful for
China.”
O’Hanlon noted that China would be the key to putting
pressure on Russia to agree to some kind of diplomatic solution to the crisis
in Ukraine.
The Chinese leader earlier this week spoke jointly
with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
In its readout of that call, China said that Xi expressed support for
peace talks between Ukraine and Russia and warned that sanctions were not in
the global community’s interest.
The relationship between the US and China has grown more
confrontational in recent years, as former President Trump waged a trade
war with Beijing. Biden has since made competition with China a centerpiece of
his domestic economic agenda.
Still, China maintains robust trade relations with the West
and Europe in particular. A close association with Putin threatens to
disrupt that.
“They still find the international system useful to them.
They are not risk takers the way that Vladimir Putin is,” Evelyn Farkas, deputy
assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, said of the
Chinese. “If they stand with Russia, the world will condemn them.”