Resilience of Russian Economy, beyond doubt

Bloomberg reports that Russian government has touted robust domestic demand in boosting its 2024 growth forecast on Tuesday. While some might be tempted to dismiss the move as geopolitical bravado in the face of the US stepping up Ukraine aid, Russian economic strength is real.

In fact, Moscow’s new 2.8% GDP projection weighs in under the IMF’s latest ‑ also upgraded forecast, of 3.2%, released last week.

It might be tempting to put this resilience down to a massive defense build-up. But the Washington-based IMF had much the same assessment as President Vladimir Putin’s team: a strong job market and swift wage rises are helping to power consumer spending. The fund even cautioned “there are some signs of overheating,” with unemployment at a record low.

What about all the Western sanctions, the mass emigration of Russian talent and the departure of a number of global corporate giants? Alexander Isakov at Bloomberg Economics offers some insight.

The sanctions on Russian energy aren’t as tight as they were for, say, Venezuela and Iran, thanks in large part to the West not wanting to worsen its own cost-of-living shock with a further surge in oil prices.

Some financial sanctions had already been imposed in 2014 after the Crimea invasion, and Russia had already amortized that cost.

Russian households remain confident thanks to a tight labor market, with the jobless rate at 2.8%. A largely voluntary military recruitment model, using monetary incentives, has let consumers keep calm and carry on.

Since some large multinationals have stayed in place, will Russia’s economy just keep on ticking?

Isakov notes that part of job market’s tightness is indeed a side effect of fiscal outlays tied to the war, funded in part by energy exports. Moscow needs crude prices to stay around the current US$90 a barrel levels to keep the budget balanced — a slump to, say, US$60 could make things difficult.

The IMF sees growth slowing to 1.8% next year, and cautioned that Russia’s potential growth rate has dropped to around 1.25% from 1.7% before the war.

This would mean that Russia’s income per capita may no longer converge toward Western European levels in the medium to long term, but for now, Russia’s chugging right along

 

US Senate passes Ukraine and Israel funding

The Senate on Tuesday passed a US$95 billion emergency foreign aid package, ending months of bitter fighting over US$61 billion for the war in Ukraine that had deeply divided the Republican Party. The measure passed by a vote of 79 to 18 and now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.

The package also includes US$15 billion in military aid for Israel and US$9 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and other war-torn areas, which became another flashpoint among conservative Republicans who argued it didn’t have adequate safeguards to keep it from going to Hamas.

It provides US$8 billion in security assistance to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

It includes language to force the Chinese owner of TikTok to divest from the popular app, which is used by more than 140 million Americans, or otherwise face a ban within the United States.

The centerpiece of the package is US$47.7 billion that would flow through the Defense Department to provide training, equipment, weapons, logistics support and supplies to help Ukraine’s military, as well as US$13.4 billion to replenish US equipment sent to Ukraine and US$20.5 billion for US Armed Forces support in Europe.

It also includes US$9.5 billion in economic aid to Ukraine structured as a forgivable loan, an idea that former President Trump gave life to when the Senate passed a previous version of the US$95 billion assistance package in February.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who worked for months to get Ukraine aid passed, hailed the vote as a landmark moment.

“Today the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world. America will always defend democracy in its hour of need. We tell our allies we will stand with you. We tell our adversaries don’t mess with us,” Schumer declared on the Senate floor.

McConnell took to the floor to hail the prosperity the United States has enjoyed because it’s a global leader but told colleagues that that leadership comes with responsibilities to allies who help maintain peace and order throughout much of the world.

And he chastised colleagues who dragged out the debate over helping Ukraine based on what he called the “sheer fiction” that supporting the war is not a vital national security interest.

NATO losing proxy war against Russia

Lately the British media (Telegraph and Guardian) reported allegations that Russia was using chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops and, as if that was not bad enough, the Russian military was also endangering the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe.

Former CIA officer John Kiriakou discusses these reports and concludes that the incidents are false-flag operations orchestrated by Western sponsors of the Ukrainian regime. Kiriakou says it is the CIA that has a notorious track record of engaging in dirty tricks when its operations are going badly.

And, to be sure, the NATO proxy war in Ukraine against Russia is going very badly indeed. Russia has the military upper hand, while the NATO-backed Kiev regime is facing collapse.

A defeat for Washington and its NATO partners in Ukraine would be a political disaster for the Western powers. Hence they are getting desperate.

This explains the upsurge in Western media reports that Russia has started to use chemical weapons and that Russia is endangering the nuclear power plant at Zaporozhye, Europe’s largest civilian nuclear power station.

The latter insinuation by the Western media is particularly absurd. Russia took control of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant in March 2022.

It should be obvious that the NATO-backed regime is the perpetrator of nuclear terrorism yet the Western governments, media and the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency all adopt a shameful ambiguity about the perpetrator. The Western sponsors are covering up for a nuclear terrorist regime in Kiev because the Western governments are fully complicit in the terrorism.

John Kiriakou points out that the same playbook was used in Syria. When the Syrian Arab Army was gaining the military upper hand against NATO-sponsored jihadi mercenaries trying to overthrow the Syrian government, the Western media then reported alleged chemical weapons attacks by the Syrian army.

That resulted in the United States, Britain, and France launching air strikes against Syria. It turned out that the chemical weapon attacks were false flags conducted by the CIA and MI6-trained proxies.

Now that the NATO powers are losing the war in Ukraine against Russia – a war that they have invested in on an unprecedented colossal scale – the reaction is to repeat the false flag playbook as a desperate way to create a chemical or radiological disaster to justify an escalation of the war, perhaps by direct NATO intervention.

It does not matter to the Western warmongering elite that the safety of the planet is being recklessly jeopardized.

The same Western warmongering ruling establishments have fomented world wars and countless other wars costing tens of millions of lives. Their criminal recklessness knows no bounds.

John Kiriakou was jailed by the US government for two years after he blew the whistle on the CIA’s torture program. He now works as an independent journalist and commentator and has gained worldwide respect for his integrity and truth-telling.

 

 

 

 

Iran-Russia Rasht Astara Railway

Tehran and Moscow are finalizing the draft of a contract for the implementation of the agreement to construct the Rasht-Astara Railway.

In a meeting held between Deputy Minister of Russian Railways Sergey Pavlov and Iran’s Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali, the two sides emphasized compiling the contract for the implementation of the agreement to construct the Rasht-Astara Railway.

During the meeting, the two sides explored avenues for the development of transportation within the framework of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

In addition, the two sides examined the trend of bilateral cooperation regarding the construction of the Rasht-Astara Railway with the framework of the INSTC, according to the website of Iran's Ministry of Roads and Urban Development.

The Deputy Minister of Russian Railways acknowledged during the meeting that transporting containerized cargo from the eastern side of the INSTC registered a 400 percent growth through ‘Sarakhs’ and ‘Incheh boroun’ customs in the first quarter of the current year (January-March) compared to the same period last year.

Talks are ongoing between Tehran and Moscow to determine the tariff for transporting chemical fertilizer and coal from Russia to Iran, the United Arab Emirates and India, Pavlov added.

Iran and Russia, both under harsh Western sanctions, on May 17 inked an agreement on the long-stalled construction of a railway connecting the northern Iranian cities of Rasht and Astara.

Spanning 162 km, the railway is a crucial element of the INSTC. The corridor integrates road, rail, and sea transportation, facilitating the movement of goods between Russia and India via Iran.

Through a video conference, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin addressed the ceremony in Tehran where the two countries' transport ministers signed the agreement.

Raisi thanked Putin and the Russian government for their involvement in the initiative and referred to it as an "important strategic step" in bilateral cooperation that will benefit all countries involved in the INSTC. Putin, for his part, called the occasion a "landmark moment for the entire global transport infrastructure."

According to this agreement, the Russian Federation will invest 1.6 billion euros in this railway route.

Iran has been a key player in the INSTC and stands to benefit greatly from its full realization. As reported by Amwaj media, the Raisi government has seemingly banked significantly on transit becoming a top revenue generator. But Iran stands to gain from the project in more ways.

The operationalization of the corridor could mean improved relations between Iran and India, aligning New Delhi more closely with Tehran’s regional interests.

A vital element of the INSTC, the Rasht-Astara railway project has been stalled for years due to costs, engineering, and logistical complications.

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei stressed the importance of completing the stretch of the railway in his July 2022 meeting with Putin in Tehran.

VTB's new office in Tehran is part of Iran and Russia's ongoing efforts to connect their banking systems.

The two countries signed an agreement on January 29 to link their inter-bank messaging systems.

Due to Western sanctions, both countries have been cut off from SWIFT—a leading Belgium-based financial messaging service.

Both Iran and Russia are looking to reap the potential economic benefits of increased transit amid Western sanctions.

The Raisi government seeks to mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions through de-dollarization of trade and the establishment of direct banking and payment channels outside the international banking system.

 

US-led UN resolution on Gaza ceasefire vetoed

The United Nations Security Council on Friday turned down a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and an Israel-Hamas hostage deal after Russia and China vetoed the measure proposed by the United States.

The resolution, on which Algeria also voted no and Guyana abstained, called for an immediate and sustained ceasefire lasting roughly six weeks that would protect civilians and allow for the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Eleven of the 15 council members voted for the resolution, but the Russia and China vetoes stopped its passage.

The council will meet at 1400 GMT on Saturday to vote on an alternative resolution drafted by elected members of the Security Council, diplomats said.

That resolution demands an immediate ceasefire for the current Muslim holy month of Ramadan, the release of all hostages and an expanded flow of humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

The draft does not include provisions supporting ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire - an element of the US resolution. Washington has been working with Qatar and Egypt to try to broker a deal.

Friday was the first time Washington had backed a text that came up for a vote with the word "ceasefire" in it during the war in Gaza, reflecting a toughening of the Biden administration's stance toward Israel.

Earlier in the five-month-old war, the US was averse to the word ceasefire and vetoed measures that included calls for an immediate ceasefire.

"The vast majority of this council voted in favor of this resolution, but unfortunately Russia and China decided to exercise its veto," US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the Security Council.

She accused Russia and China of vetoing the resolution for cynical and petty reasons. She said they opposed it simply because it was penned by the US and criticized both countries for not condemning Hamas's October 07 attack on Israel.

"For all the fiery rhetoric, we all know that Russia and China are not doing anything diplomatically to advance a lasting peace or to meaningfully contribute to the humanitarian response effort," she told the council after the vote.

The US has wanted any Security Council support for a ceasefire to be linked to the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Palestinian Hamas fighters killed 1,200 people and took 253 captive in their Oct. 7 attack, Israel has said.

Nearly 32,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's subsequent offensive in the Gaza Strip, according to health authorities in the Hamas-ruled enclave.

Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, said the US-led resolution was exceedingly politicized and contained an effective green light for Israel to mount a military operation in Rafah, a city on the southern tip of the Gaza Strip where more than half of the enclave's 2.3 million residents have been sheltering in makeshift tents.

"This would free the hands of Israel and it would result in all of Gaza and its entire population having to face destruction, devastation, or expulsion," Nebenzia told the meeting.

China's UN ambassador, Zhang Jun, criticized the text proposed by the US for not clearly stating its opposition to a planned military operation by Israel in Rafah, which he said could lead to severe consequences. He said Beijing also supported the alternative.

But Thomas-Greenfield said that measure fell short.

"In its current form, that text fails to support sensitive diplomacy in the region. Worse ... it could actually give Hamas an excuse to walk away from the deal on the table," she said.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that his country would work with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates to persuade Russia and China to back yet another alternative resolution at the United Nations for a ceasefire in Gaza.

 

 

Russia: 40 killed in attack on concert hall

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack in which at least dozens of people were killed and wounded when individuals reportedly armed with automatic weapons opened fire at Crocus City Hall, a concert venue in suburban Moscow, Russia.

"According to preliminary data, as a result of the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall building 40 people were killed and over 100 were injured," Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said in a statement reported by TASS.

Citing eyewitnesses, the Russian news agency reported that the group of unidentified men "armed with assault rifles went on a shooting spree in the lobby and then inside the concert hall just before a concert by the rock band Picnic."

The attack comes on the heels of Russian President Vladimir Putin's contested reelection and over two years into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has received weapons support from around the world, including the United States.

In a lengthy social media post, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that Ukraine certainly has nothing to do with the shooting/explosions in the Crocus City Hall.

"There is not the slightest doubt that the events in the Moscow suburbs will contribute to a sharp increase in military propaganda, accelerated militarization, expanded mobilization, and, ultimately, the scaling up of the war," Podolyak added. "And also to justify manifest genocidal strikes against the civilian population of Ukraine."

According to The Guardian, John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, told reporters that there's no indication at this time that Ukraine, or Ukrainians were involved in the shooting... We're taking a look at it, but I would disabuse you at this early hour of any connection to Ukraine."

Asked whether the attack signals cracks in Putin's regime, Kirby said that there are people in Moscow and in Russia that object to the way Putin is governing the country, but I don't think we, at this early hour, can make a link between the shopping mall attack and political motivations. I think... we just need more time and we need to learn more information."

 

Gold price tops US$2,200 an ounce

Gold finally surpassed US$2,200 an ounce for the first time on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve indicated that it would press ahead with three rate cuts in 2024 despite elevated inflation.

Spot gold set a new record of US$2,222.39 during the early hours of trading, before retreating to US$2,206.10. US gold futures soared 2.4% to US$2,208.20.

Gold’s latest rally, which started mid-February, is underpinned by longstanding tailwinds including heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank buying. During March 2024 alone, the safe-haven metal hit new highs on five occasions.

Its rapid ascent, according to Bloomberg columnists has surprised many seasoned market observers, as there hasn’t been a clear catalyst. What has been partially driving bullion is expectations for looser monetary policy in the United States, and that has now been reaffirmed by the Fed.

On Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell continued to highlight officials would like to see more evidence that prices are coming down, but it’s still likely in most people’s view that we will achieve that confidence and there will be rate cuts, he said.

“What we saw last night was the green light really for gold traders to come back in,” said Chris Weston, head of research for Pepperstone Group.

“The Fed have said that right now they’re tolerant of the inflation that we’ve seen, they’re tolerant that the labor market strength is not going to be the impediment,” Weston told Bloomberg.

Speculation around the timing of the Fed’s long-anticipated pivot may have provided the trigger for recent gains, with data showing that traders boosted their net long positions on gold in the week through March 05 by the most since 2019.

The metal stands to benefit even more when US interest rates actually do come down, as bullion-backed exchange traded funds look likely to increase their holdings, according to UBS Group.

On the geopolitical front, there are a number of risks boosting gold’s allure as a haven asset, Russia appears to be gaining the upper hand in its war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict continues unabated and has led to a re-routing of global shipping, while the US presidential election at later this year could prove massively consequential for markets.

Chinese buying has also underpinned prices. As well as the central bank, people have been stocking up on coins, gold bars and jewelry to safeguard their wealth from a year long property downturn and losses in the country’s stock market.

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Iran-China-Russia naval drill in Indian Ocean

The navies of Iran, China, and Russia have initiated joint drills in the northern tip of the Indian Ocean, marking their fifth collaborative military exercise in recent years. Naval delegations from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, and South Africa are present as the observers of the exercises.

Chinese and Russian naval forces have entered Iranian territorial waters to participate in the primary stage of the naval war game, named Maritime Security Belt 2024, near the Gulf of Oman. This international exercise, involving Iran, China, and Russia, underscores a commitment to peace and security in the region.

During a joint press conference with Russian and Chinese commanders, Second Flotilla Admiral Mustafa Taj al-Dini emphasized the strategic significance of this being the fifth joint exercise among the involved countries. He highlighted the objectives of this joint naval drill, including bolstering maritime trade security, combating piracy and terrorism, and fostering cooperation among the participating nations.

According to Taj al-Dini, this security-focused exercise, covering an expansive area of 17,000 square kilometers, aims to address multifaceted challenges. Despite the approaching festivities for the Persian New Year, the spokesperson underscored that security efforts remain steadfast.

Notably, naval units from Iran, China, and Russia, comprising destroyers and missile cruisers, actively contribute to this collaborative initiative.

Iranian naval forces, along with their Chinese and Russian counterparts, have conducted several military drills in recent years to enhance the security and stability of international maritime trade. They have also collaborated in countering piracy and maritime terrorism, exchanging information in naval rescue and relief operations, as well as sharing operational and tactical experiences.

Russia's defense ministry stated that the exercises, running through Friday and involving warships and aviation, would focus on the protection of maritime economic activity.

The Russian defence ministry said its Pacific fleet, led by the Varyag guided missile cruiser and the Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate, had arrived at Iran’s Chabahar port on Monday to take part in the joint drill.

China’s defense ministry mentioned that the drills aimed at jointly maintaining regional maritime security. China sent its 45th escort task force, consisting of the guided-missile destroyer Urumqi, guided-missile frigate Linyi, and the comprehensive supply ship Dongpinghu, to the exercise.

Last month, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Iranian Navy, announced Tehran's plan to hold joint drills with Beijing and Moscow before the end of March, aimed at ensuring regional security.

Providing insights into the strategic maritime efforts, the rear admiral revealed that the mission to safeguard Iran's shipping lines in international waters commenced in 2009 under the direct command of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

Emphasizing the unwavering commitment of the Army's strategic naval force, he highlighted their continuous role in ensuring the security of the nation's economic hub in both the Gulf of Aden and the northern Indian Ocean.

The admiral further highlighted the expansion of the security mission beyond securing shipping lines in the Red Sea over the past four years. Currently, the comprehensive management of protection for Iran's shipping lines extends from the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal.

The Iranian Navy conducts routine exercises throughout the year. In recent years, Iranian military experts and technicians have made significant progress in developing and manufacturing a diverse range of military equipment, achieving self-sufficiency for the armed forces in the military industry.

In March 2023, Iranian, Chinese, and Russian naval forces staged the 2023 Marine Security Belt war game in the northern parts of the Indian Ocean, marking the fourth joint exercise in recent years. Alongside Chinese and Russian fleets, more than 10 Iranian Navy vessels and three helicopters reportedly took part.

 Courtesy Tehran Times

Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia join BRICS

South Africa’s representative in the BRICS group of emerging economies, Anil Sooklal, has stated that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia join the bloc on January 01, 2024.

At the recent BRICS meeting, which took place in Durban, South Africa, early in December, Sooklal underlined —referring to the attendance of high-ranking representatives of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia— that the number of BRICS members will double with the addition of these nations.

He went on to add that the next conference of the economic group is scheduled for January 30, 2024 in Moscow, and it is expected that representatives of the new BRICS members will be there.

In a recent interview with Sputnik, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Ali Bagheri Kani, emphasized Iran's commitment, alongside other BRICS members, to actively pursue de-dollarization across various economic sectors.

Bagheri Kani highlighted the focus on trade, economic collaborations, and financial exchanges within this influential coalition of major economies. 

He emphasized ongoing initiatives and expressed optimism about reinforcing these efforts to swiftly achieve their objectives.

Bagheri Kani underscored the importance of collaborative efforts, signaling a unified commitment within BRICS to reducing dependency on the dollar.

He clarified that the initiatives aim to establish a framework fostering economic autonomy and resilience among member nations.

The BRICS group, initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, established in 2009, has emerged as a significant force shaping global economic discussions. 

Iran, alongside Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, has received an invitation to join this influential bloc. Their anticipated full membership, official from January 01, 2024, marks a substantial shift in the geopolitical landscape.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov, provided insights into BRICS countries accelerating the transition to national currencies. 

This strategic shift aligns with the shared vision of establishing a more balanced and resilient global economic framework, reducing vulnerabilities associated with a singular currency.

BRICS has announced plans to introduce a gold-backed currency for settling international trade payments, challenging the global reserve status of the US dollar. This decision adds momentum to the ongoing de-dollarization trend unfolding in the global economy.

Iran's active involvement in the BRICS initiative toward de-dollarization aligns with a broader trend among influential nations reshaping the global economic landscape.

As BRICS evolves, its concerted efforts toward economic autonomy become increasingly significant in shaping the future of international trade and finance.

Russia and Saudi Arabia urge all to join oil cuts

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's two biggest oil exporters, on Thursday called for all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on output cuts for the good of the global economy only days after a fractious meeting of the producers' club.

Hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin went to Riyadh in a hastily arranged visit to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kremlin released a joint Russian-Saudi statement about the conclusion of their discussions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies agreed last week to new voluntary cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), led by Saudi Arabia and Russia rolling over their voluntary cuts of 1.3 million bpd.

"In the field of energy, the two sides commended the close cooperation between them and the successful efforts of the OPEC+ countries in enhancing the stability of global oil markets," said the statement released by the Kremlin.

"They stressed the importance of continuing this cooperation, and the need for all participating countries to join to the OPEC+ agreement, in a way that serves the interests of producers and consumers and supports the growth of the global economy," the statement, which was in Russian, added.

The Russian version used the word join while an English translation of the statement, also released by the Kremlin, used the word adhere to the OPEC+ agreement.

Saudi state news agency SPA said that the crown prince, known as MbS, and Putin had emphasized in their meeting the need for OPEC+ members to commit to the group's agreement.

Oil market sources said that such an explicit public remark from the Kremlin and the kingdom about "joining" cuts appeared to be an attempt to send a message to members of the OPEC+ club who had not cut or not cut enough.

The biggest member of OPEC excluded from the cuts is Iran, the economy of which has been under various US sanctions since 1979 after the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran.

Iran is boosting production and hopes to reach output of 3.6 million bpd by March 20 next year.

After his return to Moscow from Saudi Arabia, Putin on Thursday held talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in the Kremlin, along with Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Mystery still surrounds Putin's trip to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, on which he was escorted by four Russian fighter jets, and it was not immediately clear what particular issue was so important for Putin to make a rare overseas trip.

The Kremlin said Putin and MbS also discussed the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and Yemen, the Iranian nuclear program and deepening defence cooperation.

MbS has sought to reassert Saudi Arabia as a regional power with less deference to the United States. Saudi Arabia is the biggest purchaser of US arms.

Putin, who sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, says Russia is engaged in an existential battle with the West and has courted allies across the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia amid Western attempts to isolate Moscow.

"With regard to the crisis in Ukraine, the Russian side expressed appreciation for the humanitarian and political efforts undertaken by His Royal Highness Mohammed bin Salman," the joint statement said.

Putin and MbS, who together control a fifth of the oil pumped each day, were shown smiling and engaging in an effusive handshake as Putin emerged from his car in the Saudi capital.

Both MbS and Putin want and need high prices for oil, the lifeblood of their economies. The question for both is how much of the burden each should take on to keep prices aloft, and how to verify the burden.

At the talks with MbS, Putin said that a planned visit by the prince to Russia had been changed at the last minute, prompting him to visit Riyadh.

"We awaited you in Moscow," Putin told MbS with a smile.

"I know that events forced a correction to those plans, but as I have already said, nothing can prevent the development of our friendly relations."

Putin then said: "But the next meeting should be in Moscow."

The crown prince said through a Russian translator that he was ready to do that.

"Then we are agreed," Putin said.

 

 

Putin arrives Saudi Arabia to meet Mohammad

Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a rare trip abroad to discuss oil production, OPEC Plus and the wars in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine.

Putin's meeting with the prince, known as MbS, comes after oil prices fell despite a pledge by OPEC Plus, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, to further cut output.

Putin arrived in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday for talks President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. He is due to then travel to Saudi Arabia for his first face-to-face meeting with MbS since October 2019.

The Kremlin said they would discuss energy cooperation, including as part of OPEC Plus, whose members pump more than 40% of the world's oil.

"Close Russian-Saudi coordination in this format is a reliable guarantee of maintaining a stable and predictable situation in the global oil market," the Kremlin said.

The Kremlin's chief's last visit to the region was in July 2022, when he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran.

It was not immediately clear what Putin, who has rarely left Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, intends to discuss with the crown prince of the world's largest oil exporter, just days after disagreements delayed a key OPEC Plus meeting.

They will also discuss the war between Israel and Hamas militants, the situation in Syria and Yemen, and broader issues like ensuring stability in the Gulf, the Kremlin said. A Kremlin aide said Ukraine would also be discussed.

Putin will host Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Putin and MbS, who together control one-fifth of the oil pumped each day, have long enjoyed close relations, though both have at times been ostracised by the West.

At a G20 summit in 2018, just two month after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in a Saudi consulate, Putin and MbS high-fived and shook hands with smiles.

MbS, 38, has sought to reassert Saudi Arabia as a regional power with less deference to the United States, which supplies Riyadh most of its weapons and which is the world's top producer of oil.

Putin, who sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, says Russia is engaged in an existential battle with the West - and has courted allies across the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia amid Western attempts to isolate Moscow.

Both MbS and Putin, 71, want and need high prices for oil - the lifeblood of their economies. The question for both, is how much of the burden each should take on to keep prices aloft - and how to verify the burden.

OPEC Plus last month delayed its meeting by several days due to disagreements over production levels by some members. Saudi's energy minister said OPEC Plus also wanted more assurances from Moscow it would do good on its pledge to reduce fuel exports.

Relations between Saudi and Russia in OPEC Plus have at times been uneasy and a deal on cuts almost broke down in March 2020, when the markets were already shaken by the onset of the COVID pandemic.

But the two nations managed to patch up their relations within weeks and OPEC Plus agreed to record cuts of almost 10% of global oil demand, to prop up the oil markets.

Since war broke out between Israel and Hamas on October 07, Putin has cast the conflict as a failure of US policy in the Middle East and has fostered ties with Arab allies and Iran, as well as with Hamas.

When Russia intervened in the Syrian Civil War in 2015, it helped tip the balance in Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's favour, ensuring the Syrian leader's survival despite Western demands that he be toppled.

"The Kremlin seeks to build its line of behaviour taking into account the opinions of the main regional players - Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran, who are not just observers, but also, in a sense, participants in the situation," Andrey Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council think tank told the Vedomosti newspaper.

 

OPEC Plus to cut output by one million bpd

OPEC Plus oil producers are likely to agree output cuts of at least one million barrels per day (bpd) for early next year led by Saudi Arabia rolling over its voluntary additional cut and smaller curbs by others, two delegates told Reuters ahead of a virtual OPEC+ meeting on Thursday.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC Plus pump more than 40% of the world's oil, or some 43 million bpd. They currently have cuts of about 5 million bpd in place.

According to Reuters a preliminary agreement has been reached for a cut of more than one million bpd.

This would include Saudi Arabia extending the voluntary cut of one million bpd it has had in place since July plus additional contributions from other members, sources said.

It was unclear how much other members would contribute, sources said. A third source said a new reduction would be agreed on Thursday without providing a figure.

"It depends on other group participants, could be near or more," the third source said when asked about the possible one million bpd cut.

With Saudi Arabia's voluntary output cut of one million bpd and a Russian export cut of 300,000 bpd both set to expire at the end of this year, the focus is on plans for 2024.

Benchmark Brent crude futures were up to US$83.95 a barrel at 1221 GMT on Thursday, on track for a third day of gains on expectations of fresh cuts from OPEC Plus.

Earlier, two delegates involved in the discussions said fresh cuts for 2024 could potentially take one million to two million bpd in production off the market in the first quarter of 2024.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft said that Saudi Arabia, which began its additional voluntary one million bpd in July, would not want to shoulder additional cuts alone.

"We could envision a scenario where Russia and Saudi Arabia roll over their cut through the first quarter of 2024 and assemble a coalition of the willing individual producers prepared to make voluntary adjustments," she added.

The focus is on lower output with prices down from near US$98 in late September and concerns brewing over weaker economic growth in 2024 and expectations of a supply surplus.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) this month forecast a slowdown in 2024 demand growth as the last phase of the pandemic economic rebound dissipates and as advancing energy efficiency gains, expanding electric vehicle fleets and structural factors reassert themselves.

OPEC Plus sources this week said discussions had been proving difficult, as evidenced by the group postponing their meeting which was scheduled for November 26.

Plans now call for an OPEC only ministers’ virtual meeting on Thursday at 1100 GMT and a wider OPEC Plus meeting at 1400 GMT.

Sources said the delay was sparked by disagreement over output quotas for African producers; a matter they said had largely been resolved.

The OPEC Plus meeting coincides with the opening of the United Nations' COP28 climate summit being hosted by OPEC member the United Arab Emirates.

 

 

 

Iran finalizes deal to buy Russian fighter jets

Iran has finalized arrangements for the delivery of Russian made Sukhoi su-35 fighter jets and helicopters, Iran's deputy defence minister told Iran's Tasnim news agency on Tuesday, as Tehran and Moscow forge closer military relations.

Iran's air force has only a few dozen strike aircraft, including Russian jets as well as ageing US models acquired before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"Plans have been finalized for Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters, and Yak-130 jet trainers to join the combat units of Iran's Army," Iran's deputy Defence Minister Mehdi Farahi said.

The Tasnim report did not include any Russian confirmation of the deal.

In 2018, Iran said it had started production of the locally-designed Kowsar fighter for use in its air force. Military experts believe the jet is a carbon copy of the F-5, first produced in the United States in the 1960s.

 

 

OPEC Plus may opt for deeper supply cut

OPEC Plus is most likely to consider additional oil supply cuts when the group meets on November 26. It may be prudent approach because oil prices have dropped by almost 20% since September 2023.

Brent crude has fallen to US$79 per barrel from US$98 in September this year. Concern about subdued demand and a possible surplus next year have kept prices under pressure, despite OPEC Plus production cuts and conflict in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC Plus have already pledged total oil output cuts of 5.16 million barrels per day, or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022. The cuts include 3.66 million bpd by OPEC Plus and additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

There is a growing perception that the existing curbs might be not enough and the group will likely consider if deeper cuts could be implemented.

"It is not pleasant to see that market volatility is greater ahead of the next meeting while fundamentals overall remain solid," one of the OPEC+ Plus sources said.

Ministers are likely to express some thoughts on what to do more, to secure a stable trend.

Ministers from OPEC Plus, which comprises of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, are scheduled to meet on November 26. The group already has a plan to curb supplies by 3.66 million bpd into 2024 made during its last meeting in June.

The price drop has deepened this week, even after OPEC in a monthly report said the oil-market fundamentals remained strong despite negative sentiment and stuck to its relatively high 2024 oil demand growth forecast.

The International Energy Agency, which also updated its outlook this week, has a lower 2024 demand growth forecast and said the market could shift to a surplus in the first quarter.

While some believe more cuts are required, two others say it is too early to say whether further cuts will be discussed. Some believe they may opt for "wait and see".

Most of OPEC Plus members depend on oil as a primary source of government income.

Analysts believe Saudi Arabia's oil cut extension raises the risk of economic contraction this year.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stressed during previous meetings it wants to see strong compliance with cuts so all members share the burden of producing less.

At its last policy meeting in June, OPEC Plus agreed on a broad deal to limit supply into 2024 and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary production cut for July of one million bpd that it has since extended to last until the end of 2023.

Some analysts including Energy Aspects expect Saudi Arabia to keep the voluntary cut to at least the first quarter of 2024.

 

 

Russian naval fleet anchors at Bangladesh port

A Russian naval fleet has called at the port of Chittagong in Bangladesh for the first time in almost half a century, reported Russian government news agency TASS on Sunday.

The Pacific Fleet’s naval group comprises of the large anti-submarine warfare ships Admiral Tributs and Admiral Panteleyev and the oceanic tanker Pechenga. The combat ships are moored at Chittagong port, considered Bangladesh’s main sea harbour.

Confirming the arrival of the Russian naval fleet, Chattogram Port Authority secretary Md Omar Faruk said that it was a friendly visit from Russia to Bangladesh.

Naval ships from Turkey and France also came recently on such friendly visits, he said.

The naval fleet came around 10 months after the Bangladesh government in January instructed the authorities concerned not to allow any of the 69 mother vessels of seven Russian companies sanctioned by the United States to enter the country’s ports.

The Mercantile Marine Office, Chattogram, issued a circular to this effect on January 16, mentioning the IMO (International Maritime Organisation) ship identification numbers so that they were not allowed to avail of any services, including certification, renewal, refuelling, and insurance, in Bangladesh territory.

The Russian Pacific Fleet Squadron is visiting the Chattogram Port, which is a huge milestone for Russia-Bangladesh relations. The last time Russian/Soviet naval ships visited Bangladeshi ports was 50 years ago.

The Russian embassy in Bangladesh shared a related story on its verified Facebook page.

Ashik Imran, the Russian honorary consul in Chattogram, told TAAS that Russian naval sailors this time had called at the port solely on a friendly visit.

‘This is evidence that the relations between the two states are currently at a very high level,’ the Russian state media quoted Imran as saying.

 

 

Isolating Iran No Longer Possible

The US President Joe Biden is convinced that one of the reasons Hamas launched the attack on Israel was the announcement during the G-20 Summit in New Delhi on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor .

Biden has been telling so many lies to reclaim its leadership role in the Muslim Middle East. The two most compelling realities rejecting the American leadership are: one, a strong united regional solidarity cutting across sectarian divides to seek a settlement on Palestine, like at no time before, and, two, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. 

The latest developments involving Hamas and Israel undermined the US efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel. No doubt, the Saudi stance on the Palestine problem has hardened.

Do these words sound as if Biden is preparing for a war with Iran? For the first time, perhaps, there is a ray of hope that the US will no longer work around the Palestine problem. The bottom line, as the deliberations at the UN Security Council also testify, is that all responsible powers understand that the Middle East continues to be the centre of gravity in world politics and a conflagration in the region could easily turn into a world war. And none of the big powers wants such an apocalyptic outcome. 

That said, while the US still has unrivalled power in the Middle East, its influence has diminished, as new realities emerged which include:

Israel has grown more powerful militarily and economically vis-a-vis Palestinians, but no longer enjoys regional dominance. 

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two dominant powers in the Middle East, are increasingly asserting their own interests. 

China, although a relatively new player, is no longer confining itself to economic diplomacy. 

US has lost the capacity to leverage the world oil market, as Russia works closely with Saudi Arabia within the ambit of OPEC Plus to calibrate oil production level and prices. 

Consequently, petrodollar is weakening.  

The Abraham Accords have been shelved practically. 

The Arab-Israeli conflict has assumed new dimensions in the recent years, thanks to the ascendance of the axis of resistance, which require new postures and operational thinking on the part of the US. 

Israeli politics has swung sharply to extreme right. 

The global environment is highly complicated; the peace process can no longer be under US mentorship.

Russia hosted a trilateral meeting in Moscow with Iran’s deputy foreign minister  and a Hamas delegation. Later, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Africa, announced that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will soon arrive on an official visit to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  

In an all-out war with Iran, the US will take heavy casualties and the state of Israel may face destruction.

Iran may opt for nuclear deterrent capability. It is a near-certainty that a US-Iran war will turn into a world war. Clearly, war is not an option. 

There is high risk, therefore, in an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. If Israel gets bogged down in Gaza, which by no means cannot be ruled out, there is a high possibility that Hezbollah may open a second front. And that, in turn, can trigger a chain reaction that may spin out of control. There is a danger if a ceasefire is not agreed upon early enough in the conflict, the repercussions could be very serious.

 

US ultimatum to Prime Minister of Bangladesh

According to a report by The Bangladesh Chronicle, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary Afreen Akhter is believed to have conveyed the US government’s message to the Awami League regime; constitutional expert Shahdeen Malik says Hasina will defy such a move

The ruling Awami League government has been told in no uncertain terms by a senior United States official, who recently visited Dhaka, that the Sheikh Hasina regime may consider stepping down from power and hand over charge to the Jatiya Sangshad speaker by November 03, 2023.

Given the high stakes that are involved, it is unlikely that the Awami League in general and Sheikh Hasina in particular will readily comply with the US pressure to relinquish power, especially at a time when there is massive anti-incumbency besides grave charges of corruption, human rights abuses, malgovernance, among other issues, against the current regime.

It is believed that the message was conveyed to senior Bangladeshi officials by American Deputy Assistant Secretary (South Asia and Central Asia) Afreen Akhter during her meeting with Bangladesh foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen on October 16, 2023.

Besides raising the fraught issue of free, fair and participatory elections in Bangladesh, Akhter also discussed with the subjects of Rohingya refugees and the recent visit of a bipartisan American delegation comprising members of two important American think tanks with Momen, who confirmed this to reporters later the same day. Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs director general Masud Alam was present during the meeting between Akhter and Momen.

The Bangladesh foreign secretary had reacted sharply, saying, “Bangladesh objects to unnecessary foreign interference in its internal affairs”.

The sources said that Akhter placed two options before her Bangladeshi hosts, eight days before Sheikh Hasina is set to leave for Brussels on an official tour. As part of the first option, Sheikh Hasina government could resign and hand over charge to President Mohammad Shahabuddin who, incidentally left for Singapore on October 16 and is not expected to return to the country before October 30.

The last session of the Jatiya Sangshad is set to begin on October 22 and the government of the day will likely declare the official election notification in the last week of this month or the first week of November.

The second option, the US official presented before Momen and Masud, recommended transfer of power by the incumbent Awami League government to Speaker Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury by November 03 before paving the way for a truly free, fair, participatory and inclusive elections.

“The US prefers that the Sheikh Hasina regime opts for the second course,” a source, fully aware of the details of the American proposals, said.

Chaudhury was in New Delhi last week to take part in the Ninth G20 Parliamentary Speakers’ Summit. She had met Indian officials on the sidelines of the Summit.

The bases of the two options presented before the Bangladeshi leadership was that both were within the framework of the Constitution and therefore could be acted upon and considered by the government.

Chapter II of Part IV of the Bangladeshi constitution says:

“(1) The office of the Prime Minister shall become vacant
(a) if he resigns from office at any time by placing his resignation in the hands of the President; or (b) if he ceases to be a member of Parliament.
(2) If the Prime Minister ceases to retain the support of a majority of the members of Parliament, he shall either resign his office or advise the President in writing to dissolve Parliament, and if he so advises the President shall, if he is satisfied that no other member of Parliament commands the support of the majority of the members of Parliament, dissolve Parliament accordingly”.

Also, Article 54 of the constitution says, “If a vacancy occurs in the office of President or if the President is unable to discharge the functions of his office on account of his absence, illness or any other cause, the Speaker shall discharge those functions until a President is elected or until the President assumes the functions of his office, as the case may be”.

Importantly, it was indicated by the US deputy assistant secretary that failure to comply with the two options – but preferably the second – would be followed by a series of strong economic sanctions against Bangladeshi individuals, including influential businessmen and political leaders.

In the event of the ruling Awami League chosing to disregard the US ultimatum, as one source described the two options, the American authorities are said to have told their interlocutors in Dhaka that due processes of law would follow against a high value Bangladeshi individual residing in that country.

Speaking to Northeast News, one of Bangladesh’s foremost constitutional experts, Shahdeen Malik, said that in the event of a situation, political or otherwise, the prime minister will have to advise the president to dissolve parliament till the time fresh elections are held. The president, in turn, will ask the cabinet to continue. And, in the event the president is indisposed, for whatever reasons, the speaker will fulfill his duties and responsibilities.

Agreeing that there are lots of faults with the 15th amendment to the constitution, Malik said that it will be politically suicidal for her if she gives in to demands to quit.

Malik concluded that Sheikh Hasina will defy such moves and that he apprehends the regime will turn repressive.

 

Ten dumbest things propagandists want people to believe

There is no denying to the fact that we live under an empire that’s held together by lies. Here are the top ten dumbest things the US-led propagandists want to believe.

1. The US war machine has been surrounding its top two rivals China and Russia with war machinery as an act of defense, rather than an extremely provocative act of aggression.

2. The war in Ukraine simultaneously was completely unprovoked, and just coincidentally happens to massively advance US strategic interests and therefore should be funded as much as possible.

3. Although all the other wars were based on lies and resulted in disaster, but that couldn’t possibly be the case for this current war.

4. The foreign policy of any country is determined by the elected government, even though the foreign policy remains the same regardless of who is in office.

5. It is only by pure coincidence that any country’s population remains in a perpetual 50–50 deadlock which prevents anyone’s votes from changing the status quo, and the status quo just happens to be perpetually frozen along lines that hugely advantage the rich and powerful.

6. The only reason anyone could possibly be critical of the most dangerous impulses of the world’s most powerful and destructive government is if they are a secret agent working for the enemies of that government.

7. The western empires that spent the last two decades murdering Muslims in the Middle East suddenly care very deeply about the Muslims in China.

8. Putin invaded Ukraine solely because he is evil and hates freedom, and that the western empires are pouring weapons into Ukraine because they love Ukrainians and wants to protect their freedom and democracy.

9. The foreign propaganda and influence operations are significantly manipulating the way westerners think and vote, but the plutocrats who fully control all the most influential platforms in the western world are not.

10. Countries need to be worrying about tyrannical enemies in Beijing and Moscow, instead of tyrannical enemies a lot closer to home.

 

Iranian oil output hits 3.15 million bpd

Reportedly, Iran has managed to push its oil output to 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since 2018, the year Washington re-imposed sanctions on the country.

Analysts say the higher Iranian exports appear to be the result of Iran's success in evading U.S. sanctions and Washington's discretion in enforcing them.

As reported, OPEC oil output rose for a second straight month in September, led by increases in Nigeria and Iran despite ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC Plus alliance to support the market.

Last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 27.73 million bpd, up 120,000 bpd from August. Production in August had risen for the first time since February.

The rise in September was led by Nigeria, which has been battling with crude theft and insecurity in its oil producing region.

Iran pumped more, with output hitting the highest level since 2018.

Iraq and the United Arab Emirates increased output slightly, while Angolan supply showed the largest decline in the group of 50,000 bpd due to a drop in exports.

OPEC's output is still undershooting the targeted amount by about 700,000 bpd, mainly because Nigeria and Angola lack the capacity to pump as much as their agreed level.