US warns Pakistan of potential risk of sanctions

The United States warned on Wednesday countries doing business with Iran faced the “potential risk of sanctions,” as President Ebrahim Raisi concluded a three-day visit to Pakistan where his government signed eight memoranda of understanding (MoUs) for cooperation in different fields and to boost trade to US$10 billion.

The Iranian president arrived in Islamabad on Monday as the two Muslim neighbors sought to mend ties after unprecedented tit-for-tat military strikes earlier this year. The visit also took place as tensions continued to remain high in the Middle East after Iran launched airstrikes on Israel a week ago and Israel retaliated with its own attack on Friday.

During his stay in Pakistan, Raisi held several official meetings in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi to discuss issues related to trade, connectivity, energy and people-to-people contacts.

Asked about his engagements in Pakistan and signing of MoUs, US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel cautioned against possible sanctions in a brief response.

“Just let me say broadly, we advise anyone considering business deals with Iran to be aware of the potential risk of sanctions,” he said. “But ultimately, the Government of Pakistan can speak to their own foreign policy pursuits.”

He was also asked about the US administration’s decision to announce sanctions against three Chinese and one Belarus-based entity supplying missile components to Pakistan last week.

“The sanctions were made because these were entities that were proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and the means of their delivery,” Patel said. “These were entities based in the PRC (Peoples Republic of China), in Belarus, and that we have witnessed to have supplied equipment and other applicable items to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.”

“We’re going to continue to disrupt and take actions against proliferation networks and concerning weapons of mass destruction procurement activities wherever they may occur,” he added.

 

Evaluating Iran’s calibrated response

This is not the first time that Iran and Israel have faced each other. One of the reasons for not expanding the level of tension between these two actors is the agreed level of action and reaction by both the countries.

After October 07, it seems that the Zionist regime is no longer a rational actor due to the shocking blow it received, along with the preference of Netanyahu's personal and party interests over other issues.

The number of killings and civilian casualties, the targeting of hospitals, and the shutting off of water, electricity, and food have made even the regime's traditional allies criticize its irrational behavior.

This irrational behavior emanated from the lack of accurate calculation of Iran's behavior in response to changing the red line drawn in the parties' actions. However, it is also possible that due to the understanding of Tehran's intention not to expand the war and engage in a conflict with economic problems and sanctions, there was hope for continued strategic patience from Iran.

Iran, whose security is based on deterrence, considered the attack on the embassy a serious violation of its existential interest.

In a situation where targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been among the goals of Israel and America for years, the main factor that caused such a decision was Iran's significant deterrence. 

However, after this attack on the embassy, what could be the perception about Iran's deterrence? Iran's determination to respond was inevitable; the question of its ability and design was raised.

Iran wanted to give a clear response to Israel in a situation where the Zionist regime was under pressure in the field of public opinion due to numerous violations of human rights, its widening gap with the West and the United States regarding the handling of operations, and future of Gaza.

All these elements indicate that Iran did not seek to expand the conflict with Israel and other actors to open a new front and disrupt this situation.

Therefore, the puzzle of the response to the attack on the consulate had two apparently contradictory and paradoxical variables.

First, the answer must be given in such a way that the damaged deterrence is revived and causes a change in the enemy's perception of this type of strike.

Second, the conflict should not spread, neither in the geographical field nor in the increasing of actors involved.

According to Iran's previous experiences reviving its deterrence, solving this problem and paradox have been two conceivable tools and leverages: 1) Designing a type of military operation that demonstrates its capability (at the tactical and design level) but not at the level of forcing the target to respond and 2) Through political tools. The uncertainty in the minds of the regional and global states regarding their goals should be reduced. 

Now, if we examine the True Promise operation with this statement, these things are evident. According to previous experiences, Iran and the Axis of Resistance have a specific knowledge and understanding of the weak points of the Zionist regime.

One of the most obvious of these weaknesses is the lack of strategic depth and a clear vulnerability regarding the number of strikes and the number of fronts. Also, using the principle of surprise usually increases the success rate.

However, Iran, knowing these cases, presented a designed response in which it did not involve all the actors of the resistance axis who were active during the past months; at the same time, it responded with minimal quantity and quality (according to the Israeli regime's statistics, Hamas in Al-Aqsa Storm operation had used about 3,500 projectiles) and of course, the start of the attack was already known hours ago.

At the same time, during the days before the operation, Tehran had expressed to the regional and extra-regional countries its intention to carry out this "calibrated response."

This operation has shown Iran's maturity in design and implementation. In general, it should be kept in mind that the main audience of deterrence is not public opinion but decision-makers.

Security officials must know the type of target selection, weapons, and tactics used better than anyone else. Until now, it seems that Western officials and experts have received this calibrated response.

 

Pakistan and Iran sign agreements

Pakistan and Iran agreed to increase the volume of bilateral trade to US$10 billion in the next five years following the signing of as many as eight agreements and memorandum of understanding (MoUs) for cooperation in different areas.

Speaking after witnessing the signing of the agreements and MoUs between the two sides, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that a fruitful discussion was held between the two sides including security and investment during the meeting. He said that Iran was among those countries which recognized Pakistan after 1947.

The premier said that these relations would now be used for the prosperity, mutual benefit, and welfare of the people of both sides as this day provides an opportunity for development.

President Raisi and the prime minister expressed strong and unequivocal condemnation of the indiscriminate use of force by Israeli occupation authorities in Gaza for over seven months and reiterated the call for international efforts to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, lifting of the siege and humanitarian relief to the people of Gaza.

The prime minister said that Indian atrocities are continuing in Kashmir as well, Iran has always raised its voice in favour of Kashmiris, and Kashmiris will definitely get their basic rights.

The President of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, thanked the prime minister and the government of Pakistan for the warm welcome. He said that the UN and the UNSC and other international powers that talk about human rights have proved that they are inefficient and the UNSC could not deliver its task and responsibility with regard to Palestine. He said that today Muslims, people of Iran and Pakistan, and Muslims and non-Muslims are raising their voices all over the world against these human rights violations. He said that the struggle of Palestinians will be successful one day.

The Iranian president said that Pakistan and Iran relations are not only limited to the neighbourhood but are connected with civilization, culture, and religion, which cannot be separated.

The Iranian president said that there are great opportunities for the development of existing relations between Pakistan and Iran. In today’s meeting, it has been agreed to expand political, diplomatic, economic, and commercial relations to the maximum extent possible.

He said that Pakistan and Iran are fighting a war against terrorism, and cooperation between the two countries is necessary in this war, there is a need to work together against organized crime and narcotics etc. as these are threats to both countries and region. Pakistan and Iran are determined to strengthen their bilateral relations and added that the volume of trade and economic cooperation between Pakistan and Iran is very small.

He added,“We have decided to increase the volume of trade to $10 billion in the first phase.”

He said that the brave people of Iran have turned the illegal sanctions into opportunities that achieved development and prosperity for Iran, and Pakistan can benefit from Iran’s development and technological experiences. He said Pakistan and Iran have a common, long and joint border and emphasized for development and prosperity of the people living across the border by going beyond establishing border markets.

Earlier, the two sides signed agreements on judicial assistance in civil matters, veterinary and animal health and in security and MoUs on the establishment of a special economic zone, film exchanges, and cooperation between the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting and the Organization of Cinema and audio visual affairs of Iran, and cooperation between the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Development, and Ministry of Cooperatives, labours and social welfare of Iran, as well as MoU between Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority and National Standards Organization of Iran, and MoU on legal cooperation.

Iranian President Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi has declared that Pakistan’s territory is respectable for his country, and both Tehran and Islamabad are committed to fight against terrorism and other manifestations of insecurity which endanger the two neighbours and the wider region.

Addressing a joint presser with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif after their delegation-level talks in Islamabad on Monday, President Raisi said the anti-terrorism cooperation between the two countries is inevitable.

President Raisi conveying best regards from the people and the Supreme Leader of Iran to the people of Pakistan said the great people of Pakistan had always been supporting the oppressed people of various areas of the world specially the people of Gaza and had always been defending Islam and raising their voice for the freedom of Quds Al-Sharif.

 

Israel-Iran encounters and US military strategy

The US military's success in helping Israel stop a recent massive wave of Iranian missiles and drones might suggest Washington is well prepared militarily for whatever comes next as Iran and Israel move from shadow warfare to direct confrontation.

Current and former US officials say US forces are not positioned for a major, sustained Middle East conflict and the Pentagon may have to revisit assumptions about military needs in the region if the crisis deepens.

"I don't think we have all the forces that we would want to support Israel if there was a direct war between them and Iran," said Michael Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under the Trump administration.

Though Tehran has indicated it had no plans to retaliate for an apparent Israeli strike on Friday, the tit-for-tat attacks have raised fears of an unpredictable regional war that the United States has sought to prevent.

In the months since an attack by Hamas militants on Israel triggered a war in Gaza that has ignited unrest throughout the Middle East. The United States has rushed thousands of US service members to a region that had seen a steadily declining US presence over years.

Many of those new US troops are on warships and aircraft that move in and out of the region, and are only temporarily deployed. That US strategy to rely on surge forces could be tested now Iran and Israel have broken the taboo of open military strikes against each other.

"What it means for the US military is that I think we have to revisit this idea of what are the necessary, sustainable military capabilities that we have to maintain in the region," said Joseph Votel, a retired four star Army general who led US troops in the Middle East.

Votel and other former officials said the US military's success in downing Iran's drones and missiles last Saturday was presumably aided by detailed US intelligence that allowed the Pentagon to anticipate the timing and targets of Iran's attack.

"I think the bigger concern is our ability to be responsive over a sustained period of time," Votel said.

US officials say Iran does not appear to want an all-out war with Israel, and Tehran has played down Friday's strike. Still, experts warn the situation is unpredictable, particularly as long as the Israel-Hamas conflict rages.

US Army General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, the current head of Central Command, told lawmakers last month that he had requested more troops than the Pentagon had sent to his region, which President Joe Biden's administration has said is a lower priority than the challenge from China.

In written testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, Kurilla said a dangerous shortfall in US intelligence assets, targeting expertise and linguists contributes to gaps and seams in our ability to detect and disrupt plots, increasing freedom of movement for violent extremist organizations.

Although Kurilla's comments appeared more focused on Afghanistan, some intelligence shortfalls have already affected US strategy since the start of the war in Gaza.

For example, a lack of detail about Houthi weapons stockpiles before the Iran-backed group started attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea has made it hard to determine the effect of months of strikes on the group's arsenal of missiles and drones, said officials.

Still, sending more US troops to the Middle East and bolstering intelligence assets longer-term could prove difficult, officials say.

"Troops are spread around Europe and those that aren't are going through overdue maintenance cycles," one US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"And Asia is supposed to be the focus."

Another official said it was still unclear whether the US military was prepared to pull forces from Asia or Europe, despite the increase in tensions.

Prior to October, the last time the United States surged thousands of troops into the Middle East was under former President Donald Trump, during a series of escalatory actions that culminated in the US killing of Iran's top general and a retaliatory missile attack by Tehran on a US base in Iraq.

The first US official noted that the surge of troops in 2019 and 2020 was possible because, unlike today, Washington did not have to dedicate so many personnel and resources to Europe, a new reality following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Mulroy said the United States should strengthen its position in the Middle East without abandoning its China-first focus.

 

 

Israel-Iran playing 'ping pong' under US supervision

Israel has carried out a military strike inside Iran; a US official told CNN Friday, the latest move is a dangerous escalation that threatens to push the already volatile region into all-out war.

The US was given advance notification Thursday of an intended Israeli strike in the coming days, but did not endorse the response, the senior US official said.

Iran’s air defense systems were activated in several locations after three explosions were heard close to a major military airbase near the Iranian city of Isfahan, state media reported early Friday morning. Iran’s semi-official FARS news agency said fighter jets were located at the airbase and that military radar was a possible target.

Multiple state-aligned news agencies reported that sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program were “completely secure” and the attack appeared to be limited in scope.

“Following the activation of air defense in some parts of the country to deal with some possible targets, reports indicate that so far, no large-scale strikes or explosions caused by any air threat has been reported,” Iranian state-run media reported.

Reports of Friday’s strike came hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN that if Israel takes any further military action against Iran, its response would be “immediate and at a maximum level.”

“If the Israeli regime commits the grave error once again our response will be decisive, definitive and regretful for them,” he added, noting that this warning had been communicated to the White House via the Swiss Embassy in Tehran.

Tensions across the Middle East remain on a knife edge, following Iran’s unprecedented direct strike against Israel late Saturday. The attack, during which Iran launched more than 300 drones and cruise missiles toward Israel, came in response to a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on 01 April, which killed a top commander, and several others.

Outgoing flights from several Iranian airports were briefly canceled or suspended early Friday but aviation authorities later lifted all restrictions.

Iran’s National Cyberspace center spokesperson Hossein Dalirian said on X that three drones “have been successfully shot down by the country’s air defense, there are no reports of a missile attack for now.”

Senior Iranian military commander Second Brigadier General Mihandoust said the sound of a loud explosion near Isfahan was caused by “air defense firing at a suspicious object” and that there was no “damage or incident,” according to the state-aligned Tasnim news agency.

Prior to Friday’s Israeli strike, the US expectation was the country would not target Iran’s civilian or nuclear facilities, another senior US official told CNN.

CNN has previously reported that Israel told the US its response would be limited in scope. US intelligence had suggested Israel was weighing a narrow and limited strike inside Iran because they feel like they have to respond with a kinetic action of some kind given the unprecedented scale of the Iranian attack.

The range of targets was “never specified in precise terms but nuclear and civilian locations were clearly not in that category,” the second official added.

Israel’s Western allies have both rallied to its defense in the wake of Iran’s attack Saturday, while also urging restraint.

Multiple explosions reported in Iran

Explosions were reported inside of Iran while unconfirmed reports indicated multiple Iranian sites were struck, possibly by Israel.

The semi-official Iranian Fars News Agency reported explosions near the city of Isfahan in central Iran. The state-run Iranian news agency Press TV also reported explosions in Isfahan but noted the reasons were still unknown.

Other unconfirmed reports indicate potential strikes near the cities of Daraa in Syria and Baghdad in Iraq.

Flights were being diverted around western Iran early Friday morning local time, according to the Associated Press.

It’s not clear what the immediate targets were if the strikes happened and if Israel is behind them, but Isfahan is home to Iranian nuclear facilities and sites.

Iran warned earlier on Thursday that the targeting of nuclear sites could result in the change of the nuclear doctrine in Tehran, which does not have nuclear weapons but possesses enriched uranium and holds the capacity to obtain them.

The alleged Israeli strikes will likely inflame tensions even further in the Middle East, which is already embroiled in conflicts in Gaza and in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

Israeli officials pledged earlier this week to respond to Iran, which sent a flurry of some 300 missiles and drones at Israel last weekend.

That attack, which was largely defeated by Israeli and allied defense systems, came in response to an alleged Israeli strike near the Iranian embassy in Syria that killed two high-ranking commanders.

The Biden administration pushed Israel not to respond to Iran, but Israeli officials were publicly arguing that such a brazen Iranian attack must be answered.

Iran, in turn, publicly warned that any Israeli attack would be met with a much harsher response than last weekend’s assault.

 

Iran-Russia Rasht Astara Railway

Tehran and Moscow are finalizing the draft of a contract for the implementation of the agreement to construct the Rasht-Astara Railway.

In a meeting held between Deputy Minister of Russian Railways Sergey Pavlov and Iran’s Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali, the two sides emphasized compiling the contract for the implementation of the agreement to construct the Rasht-Astara Railway.

During the meeting, the two sides explored avenues for the development of transportation within the framework of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

In addition, the two sides examined the trend of bilateral cooperation regarding the construction of the Rasht-Astara Railway with the framework of the INSTC, according to the website of Iran's Ministry of Roads and Urban Development.

The Deputy Minister of Russian Railways acknowledged during the meeting that transporting containerized cargo from the eastern side of the INSTC registered a 400 percent growth through ‘Sarakhs’ and ‘Incheh boroun’ customs in the first quarter of the current year (January-March) compared to the same period last year.

Talks are ongoing between Tehran and Moscow to determine the tariff for transporting chemical fertilizer and coal from Russia to Iran, the United Arab Emirates and India, Pavlov added.

Iran and Russia, both under harsh Western sanctions, on May 17 inked an agreement on the long-stalled construction of a railway connecting the northern Iranian cities of Rasht and Astara.

Spanning 162 km, the railway is a crucial element of the INSTC. The corridor integrates road, rail, and sea transportation, facilitating the movement of goods between Russia and India via Iran.

Through a video conference, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin addressed the ceremony in Tehran where the two countries' transport ministers signed the agreement.

Raisi thanked Putin and the Russian government for their involvement in the initiative and referred to it as an "important strategic step" in bilateral cooperation that will benefit all countries involved in the INSTC. Putin, for his part, called the occasion a "landmark moment for the entire global transport infrastructure."

According to this agreement, the Russian Federation will invest 1.6 billion euros in this railway route.

Iran has been a key player in the INSTC and stands to benefit greatly from its full realization. As reported by Amwaj media, the Raisi government has seemingly banked significantly on transit becoming a top revenue generator. But Iran stands to gain from the project in more ways.

The operationalization of the corridor could mean improved relations between Iran and India, aligning New Delhi more closely with Tehran’s regional interests.

A vital element of the INSTC, the Rasht-Astara railway project has been stalled for years due to costs, engineering, and logistical complications.

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei stressed the importance of completing the stretch of the railway in his July 2022 meeting with Putin in Tehran.

VTB's new office in Tehran is part of Iran and Russia's ongoing efforts to connect their banking systems.

The two countries signed an agreement on January 29 to link their inter-bank messaging systems.

Due to Western sanctions, both countries have been cut off from SWIFT—a leading Belgium-based financial messaging service.

Both Iran and Russia are looking to reap the potential economic benefits of increased transit amid Western sanctions.

The Raisi government seeks to mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions through de-dollarization of trade and the establishment of direct banking and payment channels outside the international banking system.

 

Middle East can't afford more conflicts

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reaffirmed on Tuesday that the Middle East cannot afford further conflict, amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.

Addressing a joint press conference with his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar in Islamabad on Tuesday during his official visit to Pakistan, leading a high-level delegation, Prince Faisal urged all parties to prioritize de-escalation.

Prince Faisal and Dar called for immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. While regretting the failure of the international community to ensure ceasefire in Gaza, both leaders demanded its immediate enforcement, opening of a humanitarian corridor and averting of famine that was leading to a catastrophe.

Prince Faisal said that a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which has been besieged for months due to the Israeli war, has become a necessity.

He said international efforts aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Gaza have been wholly insufficient. He emphasized the need for intensified efforts to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and stressed the urgency of implementing an immediate ceasefire.

Prince Faisal called for an immediate end to the killings and sufferings of the people of Gaza. Palestinians were already living in an unstable region leading to a catastrophe in Gaza and ‘there is no need for further confrontation’, he said adding that ‘de-escalation should be everybody’s priority.

Prince Faisal said that so far more than 33,000 people had been killed in Gaza. “They are now facing a famine like situation and starving to death as the international humanitarian aid is not getting in. It is a complete failure of the international community,” he observed.

Terming the situation unacceptable, the Saudi minister said there was no justification to it. In reality, he said, the two United Nations resolutions regarding immediate ceasefire in Gaza had not seen implementation. Efforts were seen after six Western aid workers were killed but not when 33,000 Palestinians died which showed the double standards, he regretted.

On his part, Dar said Pakistan and Saudi Arabia shared the same feelings on Gaza, while calling upon the international community to help end the genocide.

“The world conscience must wake up and enforce an immediate and unconditional ceasefire to ensure unimpeded humanitarian aid. More Palestinians should not be killed due to starvation,” he said, and demanded for a global probe into the crimes committed against humanity in Gaza.

Prince Faisal and Dar reiterated the need to build up and convert the bilateral strong partnership into a strategic partnership and further promote economic cooperation for the mutual benefit of the two countries.

Prince Faisal termed his meetings with the Pakistani leadership very productive. He emphasized the importance of strategic partnership between the two countries and expressed commitment for strengthening of investment.

“The Saudi delegation was impressed with the proactive and business focused approach of the Pakistani side. There were significant investment opportunities in Pakistan, and termed their visit ‘very positive on their perspective’, which would lay the groundwork for future ventures.”

The Saudi minister also emphasized the need to tap the untapped potential in Pakistan. “We should continue to work closely for the economic progress and regional security with historic bilateral cooperation,” he added.

Iranian oil output and price improve

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report has said that Iran’s oil production volume increased by 28,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.188 million BPD in March 2024 and heavy oil price also increased by US$3.0 during this period.

The OPEC total crude oil production volume reached 26.604 million bpd in March 2024, showing a 3,000 bpd increase as compared to a month before.

According to this report, the price of each barrel of Iran’s heavy crude oil in March 2024 reached US$83.48 BPD.

The average oil price of OPEC in March 2024 reached US$84.22, showing an increase of US$2.99 BPD.

Back in January, a report released by the US Department of Energy stated that Iran has been the top OPEC member in terms of production increase in 2023, with an increase of 330,000 bpd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) affiliated with the Department of Energy mentioned in its latest report that the total oil production of Iran was estimated at 2.87 million bpd at the end of 2023. Iran’s oil production was 2.54 million bpd in 2022.

The figures show that total OPEC oil production was 26.89 million bpd in 2023 which shows 630,000 barrels fall year on year. OPEC produced 27.52 million bpd in 2022.

This report has put Iran's oil production in the last month of last year at 3.17 million bpd. Iran was the third-largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq in December 2023.

The 330,000-bpd increase in Iran’s 2023 oil production indicates that sanctions have been ineffective on Iran's oil industry.

Earlier in June 2023, Bloomberg reported that the production and export of Iranian oil in 2023 reached record highs since the country came under US sanctions more than five years ago.

The report published in late June 2023 stated that Iran was shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

A Reuters report, also said in June last year Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

Iran has not released official figures about its oil exports over the past years amid efforts to evade Washington’s sanctions.

 

Iranian attack on Israel: All winners no loser

According to Jennifer Baik of AP, the unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel early Sunday ratcheted up regional tensions, confirming long-held fears about the Israel-Hamas war spiraling into a broader conflagration. But Iran, Israel, the United States and Hamas also walked away with some gains.

Israel

As more than 300 drones and missiles headed toward Israel in the early hours of Sunday, the country was able to successfully put to the test its aerial defense array, which, along with help from allies, blocked 99% of the projectiles and prevented any major damage.

By contrast, Israel’s military had suffered a bruising defeat at the hands of a far less equipped enemy when Hamas stormed from Gaza into Israel on October 07, 2023. That was a major blow to Israel’s image as a regional military powerhouse and shattered any sense of invincibility. The response to Iran’s attack could be what restores faith in the country’s military, even as its forces are bogged down in Gaza, more than six months after Israel declared war on Hamas there.

Israel has also boasted about the coalition of forces that helped it repel the Iranian assault. It’s a much-needed show of support at a time when Israel is at its most isolated because of concerns surrounding its conduct during the war against Hamas, including a worsening humanitarian crisis and a staggering death toll in Gaza.

Iran

Iran vowed repeatedly that it would respond to an apparent Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 01 that killed two generals. Sunday’s assault allowed Iran to show to its citizens that it won’t stand by when its assets are attacked and that it was serious when it threatened revenge.

With its strike, Iran was able to exhibit its fierce firepower, instill fear in some Israelis and disrupt the lives of many through school cancellations. But with little damage actually caused in Israel, Iran might hope that any response will be measured. Several hours after it launched the drones and missiles, Iran said the operation was over.

United States

The United States was a key player in repelling the assault, demonstrating to its allies around the world the power and reliability of American support.

Now, as Israel mulls how and whether to respond, that alliance will be put to the test, with the Biden administration seeking to exert its leverage on Israel and prevent it from carrying out a response that might worsen the conflict.

Hamas

Hamas, which is backed by Iran, welcomed the strike on Israel. Since launching its October 07 attack, Hamas had hoped that regional partners might come to its assistance and drag Israel into a broader war. While some have done — including the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen’s Houthis — Iran had not directly entered the fray until Sunday.

Hamas could hope that the attack is the first salvo in deeper Iranian engagement in the war in Gaza. It also could hope that violence in the West Bank, where an Israeli teen was killed and settlers rampaged in Palestinian towns, continues to heat up. At the very least, Iran’s attack may have emboldened Hamas to dig in its heels in current negotiations over a cease-fire, hoping the increased military pressure on Israel might lead it to accept the militant group’s harder-line terms for a deal.

US not to support Israeli attack on Iran

President Joe Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would not participate in any Israeli counter-offensive against Iran, according to reports on Sunday by CNN and the Wall Street Journal.

Speaking with Netanyahu late on Saturday, Biden suggested further response was unnecessary. Senior officials told their counterparts that the US would not participate in an offensive response against Iran, CNN and the Wall Street Journal reported

John Kirby, the White House's top national security spokesperson, told ABC's "This Week" program on Sunday that the United States will continue to help Israel defend itself, but does not want war with Iran.

"We don't seek escalated tensions in the region. We don't seek a wider conflict," Kirby said.

On Saturday night Iran launched drone and missile attacks against Israeli military and intelligence targets in response to the Zionist regime’s air raid on the consular building of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 01 that killed seven Iranian military advisors.

Hossein Salami, the chief of the IRGC, says the initial assessment is that the operation achieved a level of success that exceeded our expectations. However, he said, Iran is still receiving more information.

“Naturally, people living in occupied lands, Zionist officials and the terrorist and occupying armies of the Zionist regime and the US have a better understanding of the pummeling effects of these attacks at this moment,” Salami stated.

Salami said the US and France provided air cover for Israel in Iraq, Jordan and even parts of Syria, but tens of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles managed to punch through the layers of defensive capabilities.

“We could have launched a much larger attack, but we limited it to the capabilities that the Zionist regime had used to attack the Iranian consulate and martyr our dear commanders.”

Iran has warned Israel against reacting to the drone and missile attacks that targeted occupied territories on Saturday night. In a post on X, Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations said the country's attacks against Israeli positions were legal, adding that it can now see the situation as resolved.

"Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe," the statement said. 

Further information shows that for the first time in the past six months, the regime has stopped its attacks on the besieged Gaza Strip to deal with the barrage of drones and missiles coming from the Iranian territory.

 

 

Iran launches ‘Operation Truthful Promise’

Reportedly, Iran has launched retaliatory attacks against Israel, which struck its embassy in Damascus on April 01, killing 7 high-ranking military officials.

Israeli reports say Iran has already fired three waves of drones at Israeli positions, as well as a number of cruise missiles. Footage captured by citizens in Iraq, suggests Iran's famous Shahed-136 drones are among the UAVs launched at Israel.

The initial announcement regarding the launch of the Iranian attacks came from the Israeli military. Daniel Hagari, the army’s spokesperson, stated that the drones would take some hours to reach their destination while emphasizing Israel's readiness for the situation.

During a briefing with the press, Hagari highlighted that Israel has defensive and offensive measures in place and maintains close cooperation with the US and regional partners.

Iran also confirmed it has begun its retaliation against Israel through a TV announcement.

"In response to various crimes of the Zionist regime, including the attack on the Iranian consulate section in Damascus and the martyrdom of some of our country's military commanders and advisors in Syria, the IRGC's Air Force targeted specific objectives inside the occupied territories by hitting them with dozens of missiles and drones," a news anchor said, reading a statement by the Islamic Revolution Gaurd Corps (IRGC).

ABC News has quoted American officials claiming that 400 to 500 drones are currently making their way towards Israel after being launched from Iran's territory.

Before the direct Iranian attack on Israeli targets, Hezbollah initiated a significant rocket barrage targeting the northern areas of occupied Palestine and the Golan Heights.

A cyber attack also plunged vast areas of the occupied territories, including Tel Aviv, into darkness.

Further Information indicates that both the Lebanese group and the Ansarullah movement in Yemen have initiated drone attacks on the occupied territories concurrently with Iranian strikes.

Iran seizes cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz

Iran's Revolutionary Guards seized an Israeli-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the Iranian state-run IRNA news agency reported, days after Tehran warned it could close the area to sea traffic.

IRNA reported that a Guards helicopter had boarded and taken into Iranian waters the Portuguese flagged MSC Aries.

Shipping security agencies had earlier reported a vessel being boarded and seized by regional authorities in the Hormuz Strait between the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

The Aries is leased by international shipping line MSC from Gortal Shipping, an affiliate of Zodiac Maritime, Zodiac said in a statement, adding that MSC is responsible for all vessel activities. Zodiac is partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.

The incident comes amid rising regional tensions since the start of Israel's campaign in Gaza in October last year, with Israel and its ally the United States clashing repeatedly with Iranian-aligned groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Iran had threatened to retaliate for suspected Israeli airstrikes on its consulate in Syria's capital Damascus on April 01 that killed seven Revolutionary Guards officers including two senior commanders.

US President Joe Biden said on Friday he expected Iran to attack Israel sooner, rather than later and warned Tehran not to proceed.

Israel's military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said "Iran will bear consequences for choosing to escalate this situation any further", in response to reports of the seizure of MSC Aries.

On Tuesday the naval head of the Revolutionary Guards, Alireza Tangsiri, said it could close the Strait of Hormuz if deemed necessary.

He said Iran viewed as a threat Israel's presence in the UAE, with which Israel established diplomatic relations in 2020 as part of the "Abraham Accords" mediated by the United States.

Yemen's Houthi group has disrupted global trade in the Red Sea for months, saying it is aiming at vessels linked to Israel in retaliation for Israel's campaign in Gaza.

The United States and Britain have carried out strikes against Houthi targets in response to the attacks on shipping.

The Joint Maritime Information Center, run by a Western-led naval coalition, said vessels intending to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes, should exercise caution and not loiter.

 

 

Biden moving in wrong direction

"The United States ought to be distancing itself from Israel's illegal attack, but instead the Biden administration is moving to shield Israel from the consequences of its own actions," Daniel Larison wrote.

Israeli appears to want to goad Iran into a military response to divert attention from the slaughter and famine in Gaza and to trap the US into joining the fight. Biden has made it that much easier for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by volunteering to walk into the trap.

Israeli forces have routinely struck Iranian and other targets in Syria for more than a decade, but the attack on the consulate in Damascus was a major escalation both in terms of the location and the rank of the Iranian officers that were killed.

An imminent Iranian response to Israel's deadly bombing of Tehran's consulate in the Syrian capital earlier this month is heightening fears of a devastating regional conflict in which the United States—Israel's top ally and arms supplier—could become directly involved.

The US embassy in Jerusalem issued a security warning on Thursday and restricted its employees' travel ahead of a possible Iranian response as soon as Friday. US officials, according to Politico, have assessed that Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message—but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond.

US President Joe Biden and top administration officials have in recent days stressed their "ironclad" commitment to defending Israel in the case of an Iranian reprisal, despite widespread condemnation of Israel's consulate attack as a significant escalation and flagrant violation of international law.

"When the Israeli regime completely violates the immunity of individuals and diplomatic places in violation of international law and the Vienna Conventions, legitimate defense is a necessity," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a statement Thursday.

Two unnamed US officials told CBS News that Iran's response could include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country." Biden administration officials have asked China and other nations to urge Iran not to respond to the consulate attack.

The Israeli government, which is currently waging a catastrophic war on the Gaza Strip, signaled it would respond forcefully to any Iranian retaliation, raising the possibility of direct US involvement.

Axios reported that the senior US military commander in charge of the Middle East visited Israel Thursday to coordinate around a possible attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies.

While war hawks in the US have used the surge in tensions to agitate for a direct American-Israeli attack on Iran, advocacy groups and anti-war commentators have warned against any additional escalation, fearing the eruption of all-out military conflict in the Middle East.

"A regional war involving the US, Israel, and Iran would be disastrous for US interests, the people of Iran, and the security of the region as a whole," the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) said earlier this week.

Responsible Statecraft columnist Daniel Larison wrote Friday that with its unwavering support for the Netanyahu government, the Biden administration is moving in the wrong direction.

 

Terrorists targeting Iranian coastal areas

According to Tehran Times, on April 3, 2024 security forces engaged in a 17-hour battle against terrorists in two separate cities within Iran's southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan.

During the confrontation, 12 members of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and 4 police officers lost their lives as they fought to clear the region of terrorists affiliated with the so-called Jaish-ul-Adl outfit. 

The clash ensued after 18 members of the terrorist group launched simultaneous attacks on five military bases overnight. In Chabahar, they escalated the situation by seizing a residential building and taking civilian hostage while resisting security forces. Ultimately, all 18 terrorists were neutralized.

The terrorist group cited its motive for the attacks as obstructing the "Makran Coasts Development Plan." It claimed that the plan which is expected to rake in millions of dollars for locals in southeastern Iran aims to “change the Sunni demographic” of the region.

Makran, a historically significant region stretching from the mountains west of Jask to portions of Pakistan's Baluchistan province along the Sea of Oman, has witnessed recent infrastructural development by Iran. The Chabahar port has particularly emerged as a crucial trade gateway connecting the Indian Ocean with landlocked nations in Central Asia.

External separatist groups and oppositionists have persistently attempted to discredit the Iranian government's economic initiatives in Sistan and Baluchistan province, portraying them as detrimental to local interests.

Often featured on Western-based news channels, Balouch separatists have propagated sensational claims, including the unfounded assertion that over 20 million Shia Muslims would be relocated to the port city of Chabahar. It's worth noting that Tehran's population, with the capital city having been the economic and cultural hub of Iran, has only increased by 7 million over the past 45 years.

Despite being a Shia-majority nation, Iran ensures equal rights and freedoms for all religious sects and minorities. Every religious group has representation in the parliament, and individuals from diverse backgrounds can ascend to prominent political, diplomatic, and military positions. For instance, the Iranian Army's Navy, one of Iran’s most important military forces, is led by Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, a Sunni commander.

Iran's judiciary and law enforcement authorities also make sure to uphold the rights of religious minorities. As warned by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, the desecration of the sanctities of any religious group is deemed a grave offense with strict legal consequences.

Despite centuries and perhaps thousands of years peaceful coexistence among Iranian citizens, media outlets affiliated with Israel, Western powers, and Wahabi groups persist in sowing discord under various pretexts.

For the past several years, their main tool for destabilizing southeastern Iran and creating friction has been the Jaish-ul-Adl, known within Iran as Jaish-ul-Zolm. Pictures of the individuals liquidated on April 3 show the group had managed to equip its terrorists with advanced weapons, making them resemble members of a conventional army rather than a terrorist entity residing in the deserted mountains of Pakistan. 

"Iran occupies a pivotal position globally, offering significant potential to serve as a key economic corridor in the future. This realization has spurred the nation to intensify its development efforts along coastal regions," remarked Vahid Raz Afzoon, an expert in coastal development, speaking to the Tehran Times.

"Makran, particularly Chabahar, receives special attention from Iranian authorities. The area holds immense promise to evolve into an economic nucleus, providing substantial benefits primarily to the locals of Sistan and Baluchistan, many of whom currently seek employment opportunities in other provinces."

Sistan and Baluchistan province has lagged behind other Iranian regions in terms of economic development. Analysts believe that the development of the Makran coasts could herald a transformative era for the area.

"A multitude of projects exist that could contribute to the prosperity of this region. As progress unfolds, elites from the province, currently residing in urban centers such as Tehran, Esfahan, and Mashhad, will get the chance to work in their hometown," Raz Afzoon elaborated. "Iran, like many other developing nations, has concentrated its development efforts in the capital and surrounding regions. It is imperative that this paradigm shifts. People in all 31 provinces should be able to pursue career opportunities in their hometowns and remain close to their families once they finish their studies,” he added. 

Decentralization is an issue several Asian countries are grappling with including established economies like Japan and South Korea. The Iranian government is also trying to come up with more plans and policies to dial back overdependence on Tehran and its environs. In Iran, however, it seems that authorities have more to overcome than statistical and infrastructural hurdles.

“Separatists residing abroad and terrorists like Jaish-ul-Adl know the development of Makran will benefit everyone including the locals. That’s why you don’t see them coming up with a meaningful argument,” Raz Afzoon stated.  

The routine assaults by terrorists will most likely demotivate foreign investors like India and China, preventing them from spending money on Iran’s mega projects. The longer these attacks continue, the more locals in southeastern Iran are forced to wait to finally enjoy the same amount of prosperity as those residing in the capital. 

In fact, the attacks that shook the region earlier in the month are already taking a toll on the region's economy. Tourism has been booming in Sistan and Baluchistan in the last few years. Chabahar in particular, was one of the most popular tourist destinations for Iranians in 2022 and 2023. With people fearing that they could get tangled in a spontaneous armed clash, travel agencies predict that the city will lose a significant number of visitors in the upcoming cooler seasons.

 

Iran's trade with OIC member states

The value of the trade exchanges between Iran and the other 56 member states of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) reached US$61 billion in the past Iranian calendar year ended on March 19, 2024.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which was formed in 1972, has reached a position where, according to statistics, the future of the world's energy would be in the hands of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Shafeie said in his speech.

The head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) put the volume of the trade exchanges between Iran and OIC member states from March 21, 2023, to March 19, 2024, at 94 million tons.

Iran exported US$29 billion of products to these countries and imported US$32 billion worth of products from them, said Mohammad Rezvanifar while talking to IRNA.

The deputy minister of economy went on to say that the country’s export of products to the OIC members last year registered an 11% decline in value while the import of products from these countries increased 13% as compared to a year ago.

Among the OIC member states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Oman, Afghanistan, Malaysia and Indonesia were Iran’s major trade partners.

Back in May 2023, the former head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) stressed the need for establishing a joint Islamic market among OIC members over the next 10 years.

Addressing a gathering of the heads of OIC member chambers of commerce on the sidelines of the "Russia - Islamic World: Kazan Forum 2023" in Russia, Gholam-Hossein Shafeie said, “An important issue that has been discussed a lot in the past and the organization should pay attention to it in the current situation is the creation of a common Islamic market in the next 10 years, which can be achieved by concluding a free trade agreement among Islamic countries and removing tariff and non-tariff barriers.”

“Experts have worked on the Islamic market plan, and using the experiences and studies of these experts can definitely be a way forward,” he added.

 

Iran Conundrum

Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew said Khamenei was "trapped in a strategic conundrum".

"Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain credibility among its Resistance Front allies. But on the other hand, retaliating to restore deterrence would likely bring an even greater, and more destructive Israeli response, likely with US assistance," he said.

The Iranian sources said the United States had asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Tehran that in the event of a direct attack it will stand by Israel.

Iran believes Netanyahu aims to draw Tehran into a war; therefore its retaliation could be a restrained one that avoids direct strikes on Israeli territory and may draw on Tehran's allies.

Reportedly, the US Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel.

A source familiar with the issue said the US might well agree to revived nuclear talks if that could prevent a conflagration.

“If we are talking about talks and not (about) reaching an agreement, then it would seem to be well worth the price if the payoff is minimizing the risk of a regional escalation into which the US would be dragged,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma was "to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head".

"Israel is much more unpredictable than the US," he said. "The Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that rather than delivering the deterrent effect he might hope to achieve, an attack on Israel may only fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid."

 

Pakistan’s antagonized relations with its neighbors

Pakistan's relationships with its neighboring countries have been strained for several decades, with current tensions particularly evident with Iran, Afghanistan, and India. These strained relations stem from a complex history and various geopolitical factors.

Historically, Pakistan enjoyed close ties with Iran, notably during the RCD era. However, following the revolution in Iran, relations soured, partly due to pressure from the United States. US-imposed sanctions on Iran and efforts to isolate it, including influencing Saudi Arabia to sever ties, further exacerbated tensions. Allegations suggest that countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait supported Iraq during its decade-long war with Iran.

The Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, once of significant importance, faced setbacks due to US influence. India, under US pressure, withdrew from the project, citing the threat of economic sanctions. In an attempt to mitigate these challenges, Pakistan turned to Saudi Arabia for crude oil supplies on deferred payment terms.

Despite hopes for improved relations following diplomatic efforts brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran, ongoing cross-border terrorism activities between Pakistan and Iran have hindered progress on projects like the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been marked by fluctuating dynamics, oscillating between cooperation and hostility. India's involvement, including support for anti-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan and participation in infrastructure projects like the Chabahar Port, has further complicated matters, seeking to undermine Pakistan's regional influence.

US foreign policy interests heavily influence the dynamics between India and Pakistan, with the former receiving substantial military support to counterbalance China, often at Pakistan's expense. Some analysts believe that entrenched hard-line positions in both countries will continue to hinder any prospects for improved relations.

Critics argue that Pakistan's foreign policy, historically aligned with US interests, prevents the country from overcoming its most pressing challenges independently. This dependence on external support, particularly from the United States, perpetuates Pakistan's vulnerability in international affairs.

Iranian LPG export on upward trajectory

Iran became the biggest West Asian supplier of Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) last year. Its LPG exports surged 28% to over 11 million tons, according to an analysis of ship tracking data and market intelligence by consultancy Facts Global Energy (FGE). The firm expects exports to continue climbing beyond 12 million tons this year, Bloomberg reported

The increase is driven by rising production from the South Pars gas field as well as greater shipping capacity between Iran and China.

Iran exported 4.71 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the first six months of 2023, according to the data released by S&P Global Platts.

Based on the Platts data, Iran's LPG exports loading in June were estimated at around 696,000 million tons, 28.5 percent less than May when 973,260 million tons of LPG was shipped.

Iran's average monthly LPG export in the first half of the past year was 784,833 tons.

Iran’s LPG exports mostly go to China despite the US sanctions, facilitated by Chinese shipowners who have developed an armada of very large gas carriers since sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2014 and then in 2018.

The Islamic Republic’s LPG exports could be higher without the restrictions that international shipping and trading firms face due to the sanctions and allow Iranian exporters to resume access to the global markets.

Liquefied petroleum gas, also referred to as liquid petroleum gas (LPG or LP gas), is a fuel gas that contains a flammable mixture of hydrocarbon gases, specifically propane, n-butane, and isobutane. It can sometimes contain some propylene, butylene, and isobutene.

LPG is used as a fuel gas in heating appliances, cooking equipment, and vehicles. It is increasingly used as an aerosol propellant and a refrigerant, replacing chlorofluorocarbons to reduce damage to the ozone layer. When specifically used as a vehicle fuel, it is often referred to as autogas or even just as gas.

 

 

If Iran attacks US interest in Middle East?

Israeli airstrike on an Iranian Embassy compound in Syrian capital has spurred fears of a renewed aim at the US interests in the region, despite the US officials claiming no advanced knowledge of the attack. 

Former U.S. officials and experts say the strike, which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said killed two senior members and five officers Monday in Damascus, could mean renewed attacks on the US troops and bases in Iraq and Syria by Tehran-backed proxies.

Though the US has denied any involvement in the Damascus strike — which happened during the day on a diplomatic building near Iran’s Embassy — being Israel’s biggest ally has put Washington in the crosshairs of any retaliation from Iran.

Experts agree that any Iranian response has to be carefully calibrated to avoid a costly all-out war involving the US or its key regional ally.

By not responding, Iran will look weak, both its own forces and to its allies. It seems Iran is also very cautious about getting into any encounter with the United States or with Israel. 

The Pentagon indicated that officials were concerned Israel’s strike against Iran may increase the risk to US troops in the region.

Israel has not taken responsibility for the airstrike, the US assessed that Israel was responsible.

Israel also appeared to be preparing for blowback from the strike Thursday, when its military announced it was suspending leave for reservists.