Egypt: Walled buffer zone along Gaza border

Egypt is building a massive miles-wide buffer zone and wall along its border with southern Gaza, new satellite images show, as fears grow over Israel’s planned ground offensive in Rafah where more than half of Gaza’s population is sheltering.

The images show a significant section of Egyptian territory between a roadway and the Gaza border has been bulldozed.

If the buffer zone — which stretches from the end of the Gaza border to the Mediterranean Sea — is completed, it will completely engulf the Egyptian-Rafah border crossing complex.

Additional satellite imagery reviewed by CNN shows that bulldozers arrived on site on February 03, and the initial excavation of the buffer zone began on February 06. There was a significant uptick in excavation over the last five days.

Videos released by the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights show construction of the border wall, which they claim is five meters (16 feet) high.

The organization, a non-governmental human rights group made up of activists, researchers and journalists, said that two local contractors told them that it was commissioned by the Egyptian armed forces.

The construction comes as fears grow that the already horrific humanitarian situation in Gaza will worsen, causing thousands of deaths and a mass exodus of Palestinians to Egypt’s border.

All eyes are on Rafah, situated along the new buffer zone, where nearly 1.5 million Palestinians are crammed into a massive tent city.

Despite international pressure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated plans for a military ground offensive in the southern Gazan city, saying it is Hamas’ “last bastion.”

Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Lt. Col. Peter Lerner told CNN earlier that the military aims to create a plan that evacuates civilians “out of harm’s way” and differentiates civilians from Hamas militants. However, it has not yet presented its evacuation plan to the government, he told CNN.

The city is the last remaining refuge in Gaza for displaced Palestinians, and panic is soaring as many decide whether to stay or leave ahead of the planned ground offensive.

Families struggling with shortages of food, water and medicine are living in tents just meters from the barbed-wire fence separating them from Egypt. Most have trekked to Rafah after being displaced by the war elsewhere in Gaza.

Rajaa Musleh, the Gaza representative for the nonprofit organization MedGlobal, currently based in Rafah, painted a vivid picture of the situation in the besieged town, saying that health workers who are still alive “may still be breathing, but we are dying inside.”

“The situation we are enduring in Rafah is horrific and getting worse every day. We do not have water to drink or food to eat, and our health care facilities can hardly operate,” Musleh said.

A growing number of countries and international organizations have called on Israel to avoid a ground operation in what is now Gaza’s most populated city, with the International Committee of the Red Cross regional director Fabrizio Carboni saying “countless lives are hanging in the balance.” The leaders of Australia, Canada and New Zealand warned on Thursday that such an incursion “would be catastrophic.”

Egypt has already condemned Israel’s move to push Palestinians southward in the enclave, suggesting it is part of a plan to expel Gazans and that it would spell the end of the Palestinian cause. Egypt has now sounded alarms again as Israel prepares for its military operation in Rafah.

Egypt began boosting its security presence at its border with Gaza as a precautionary measure ahead of the expected Israeli ground operation, Egyptian security officials told CNN. As part of its security buildup, the officials said, Egypt has deployed more troops and machinery in North Sinai, bordering Gaza.

Checkpoints leading to the Rafah border crossing on the Egyptian side were also fortified with more soldiers and the areas around the main road were being prepared for the deployment of tanks and military machinery, a witness told CNN.

It comes as Netanyahu continues to rail against Egypt for not closing the Philadelphi Corridor – the strip of land between Egypt and Gaza and the besieged enclave’s only non-Israeli-controlled border. In a press briefing on January 13, Netanyahu said that Israel would not consider the war over until it was closed.

Israel has been accused of constructing its own buffer zone, but within Gaza, which would effectively shrink the enclave’s borders. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said in a February 08 statement that the IDF had been destroying Gaza buildings that are within a kilometer of the Israel-Gaza fence, clearing the area with the objective of creating a buffer zone.

Israeli plan to evacuate Rafah civilians

Egyptian officials have shared details of Israel’s alleged plan to evacuate Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where 1.3 million Palestinians are sheltering.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on February 13 that the plan calls for displaced Palestinians to be concentrated in the western area of the enclave, within the coastal strip, along the sea.

Israel says it will establish 15 camp villages along the coast between Rafah and Gaza City in central Gaza. The areas included are south of Al-Mawasi and Sharm Park. Each camp will be equipped with 25,000 tents.

Egyptian officials say that Israel expects the camps, which would include medical facilities, to be funded by the US and Arab states.

However, it is unlikely that over 1 million people could be safely evacuated. 

Nadia Hardman, a refugee and migrant rights researcher at Human Rights Watch, stated, “Forcing the over one million displaced Palestinians in Rafah to again evacuate without a safe place to go would be unlawful and would have catastrophic consequences. There is nowhere safe to go in Gaza.”

If Israel proceeds with the offensive, its army will disrupt the already minimal aid entering Gaza and cause extensive destruction in Rafah, as it previously did in Gaza City and Khan Yunis. These action would exacerbate the uninhabitable conditions in Gaza, both during and after the war.

If Palestinians in Gaza are increasingly concentrated in tent camps along a tiny strip on Gaza’s coast, with no homes to return to, no functioning hospitals, and little food and humanitarian aid, this will enable Israel’s efforts to force Gaza’s population to ‘voluntarily’ flee to Egypt by land or other third parties by sea.

Israeli leaders have stated they wish to make life so difficult and dangerous for Palestinians in Gaza that the most humanitarian solution for them will be to leave Gaza and allow Israel to take it over for Jewish settlement.

The situation would resemble 1948, when Zionist militias forced Palestinians from Haifa to flee north to Lebanon by land and by boat from the city’s port.

While Gaza is on the brink of famine, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces criticism from his far-right allies for allowing any aid at all, the WSJ reported further.

“The minimal aid we committed to is an important condition for the continuation of the war because if there is a large humanitarian collapse, we can’t continue the war,” he told reporters last week.

Israel in December reopened its Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza to allow the UN and NGOs to increase aid. However, right-wing protesters have repeatedly blocked humanitarian convoys at the crossing, and the Israeli army has not taken any action to remove them.

 

Hamas still hounds Israeli forces in Gaza

According to Reuters, Palestinian gunmen kept up attacks against Israeli forces on Sunday in the Gaza, weeks after they were overrun by troops and tanks, a sign that Hamas still maintains some control.

Nearly four months into the war, there was persistent fighting in Gaza City in the north of the densely populated enclave and in Khan Younis to the south.

At the weekly Israeli cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said 17 of Hamas' 24 combat battalions had been dismantled. The rest, he said, were mostly in the southern Gaza Strip, including Rafah, on the enclave's Egyptian border. "We'll take care of them, too," he said, according to a statement from his office.

The prospect of a push into Rafah has piled pressure on the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians who have fled their homes elsewhere and are sheltering there.

An Israeli official told Reuters that the military would coordinate with Egypt, and seek ways of evacuating most of the displaced people northward, ahead of any Rafah ground sweep.

After conducting partial pullouts from Gaza City in the past few weeks that enabled some residents to return and pick through the rubble, Israeli forces have been mounting incursions. Netanyahu described these on Sunday as "mopping-up operations".

Genocide in Gaza by Israel would have not been possible without silence of Muslim rulers

Many analysts, including me, have not been able to comprehend the reasons of silence of Muslim rulers on the genocide going on in Gaza for more than 100 days. Today, I read a post at LinkedIn and sharing it with readers of my blog.

In November 2023 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "I say to the Arab leaders, if you want to preserve your interests, you must do one thing, Remain silent."

They have complied with this demand as if it were a command revealed by Allah (God). Abdullah of Jordan has mobilized his armed forces to protect the border for the IDF, Sisi of Egypt has ensured the Israeli terrorist genocide continues in all its forms including starvation and preventing aid from reaching Gaza. Even Erdogan from Turkey did not want to be left out in serving Netanyahu, he has increased trade with the Zionist entity ensuring they have essential resources such as steel for weaponry and munitions.

It will not be wrong to say that the Muslim rulers have played a pivotal role in this genocide and have worked tirelessly to silence their own populations and have threatened their own armed forces from even thinking of taking action to save the people of Gaza.

It is easy to infer that these rulers are truly loyal servants of Israel and without their help genocide in Gaza would not have been possible.

Israeli President Herzog should confer the most prestigious award, ‘The Israeli Presidential Medal of Honor’ to these rulers.

 

Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia join BRICS

South Africa’s representative in the BRICS group of emerging economies, Anil Sooklal, has stated that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia join the bloc on January 01, 2024.

At the recent BRICS meeting, which took place in Durban, South Africa, early in December, Sooklal underlined —referring to the attendance of high-ranking representatives of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia— that the number of BRICS members will double with the addition of these nations.

He went on to add that the next conference of the economic group is scheduled for January 30, 2024 in Moscow, and it is expected that representatives of the new BRICS members will be there.

In a recent interview with Sputnik, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Ali Bagheri Kani, emphasized Iran's commitment, alongside other BRICS members, to actively pursue de-dollarization across various economic sectors.

Bagheri Kani highlighted the focus on trade, economic collaborations, and financial exchanges within this influential coalition of major economies. 

He emphasized ongoing initiatives and expressed optimism about reinforcing these efforts to swiftly achieve their objectives.

Bagheri Kani underscored the importance of collaborative efforts, signaling a unified commitment within BRICS to reducing dependency on the dollar.

He clarified that the initiatives aim to establish a framework fostering economic autonomy and resilience among member nations.

The BRICS group, initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, established in 2009, has emerged as a significant force shaping global economic discussions. 

Iran, alongside Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, has received an invitation to join this influential bloc. Their anticipated full membership, official from January 01, 2024, marks a substantial shift in the geopolitical landscape.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov, provided insights into BRICS countries accelerating the transition to national currencies. 

This strategic shift aligns with the shared vision of establishing a more balanced and resilient global economic framework, reducing vulnerabilities associated with a singular currency.

BRICS has announced plans to introduce a gold-backed currency for settling international trade payments, challenging the global reserve status of the US dollar. This decision adds momentum to the ongoing de-dollarization trend unfolding in the global economy.

Iran's active involvement in the BRICS initiative toward de-dollarization aligns with a broader trend among influential nations reshaping the global economic landscape.

As BRICS evolves, its concerted efforts toward economic autonomy become increasingly significant in shaping the future of international trade and finance.

Egypt and Iran poised to restore diplomatic ties

After decades of estrangement, Egypt and Iran are poised to fully restore diplomatic ties and swap ambassadors in the near future, according to a high-ranking Egyptian official.

Rakha Ahmad Hassan, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, stated that an ambassadorial swap is probably going to occur soon.

He made the remarks in an interview with Russia’s Sputnik news agency on Friday.

He noted that ties between Cairo and Tehran have reached a new height with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi congratulating his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on his recent victory in Egypt's presidential elections.

This month, Hassan stated that the two heads of state spoke over the phone on a number of topics, including the reestablishment of diplomatic relations and the ongoing events in the Gaza Strip and the Red Sea.

On December 23, Raisi and El-Sisi agreed to resolve the remaining issues between the two countries.

As subsequently reported by the Iranian president’s website, Raisi congratulated el-Sisi for winning Egypt’s latest presidential elections during the phone call. 

He also called on Cairo to use all its capacities to stop the Zionist regime's attacks on Gaza, start providing aid, and fulfill the rights of the people of Palestine.

The Egyptian leader, for his part, expressed his satisfaction with the opportunity to speak to Raisi adding, "Iran and Egypt can play an effective role in establishing stability and security in the region due to their high historical and civilizational position and having diverse capacities."

In recent months, Iran and Egypt have been working to cultivate a closer relationship and heal longstanding rifts. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry convened on September 20 during the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. 

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani hailed the meeting as a pivotal moment in Tehran-Cairo relations, marking a positive step within Iran’s regional diplomacy initiatives.

In addition to diplomatic engagements, Iran’s Finance Minister Ehsan Khandouzi met with his Egyptian counterpart during a visit to Cairo in September. Both officials reached an agreement to establish a committee for overseeing joint projects. 

“The current level of relations between the two countries indicates that the exchange of ambassadors is imminent. Latest remarks by Oman’s ruler, Sultan Haitham bin Tarik, also suggest that efforts are being made in the region in this regard as he touched on the matter and the consequences that the rapprochement could bring about,” the senior Egyptian official noted. 

He underlined that the cycle of resolving regional issues will be completed by the restoration of diplomatic ties between Egypt and Iran, particularly in light of the recent measures to settle the Yemeni crisis and the rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran. 

Hassan emphasized that Iran’s more active involvement in the Arab world will boost commercial interaction with Arab nations while also advancing stability and prosperity in the region.

Back in August, Chairman of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs noted that Cairo does not require mediation to fully reestablish diplomatic ties with Iran.

Speaking with the Arab World Press (AWP), Mohamed el-Orabi said that Cairo and Tehran are still in communication, but it is not necessary for them to be broadcast.

“It is very simple, it should not become complicated; Tehran-Cairo relations will be fully restored eventually, but Egypt has its reservations,” el-Orabi noted. 

The announcement comes amid rumors that the two regional powerhouses are holding behind-the-scenes talks and would soon reopen their respective embassies.

El-Orabi further noted that Egypt and Iran maintain ongoing diplomatic relations that have not been broken.

But when it comes to the re-establishment of relationships, he said, determining factors that are unique in essence should be taken into account.

“Iran is an active country in the region, and rapprochement with it is linked to other issues like the status quo in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon,” the senior Egyptian official stressed. 

He emphasized that while it is challenging to set a specific timetable for the restoration of Egypt-Iran ties, progress might be made if any of the aforementioned concerns were to be resolved.

Egypt severed its diplomatic ties with Iran in 1980 following its welcoming of the deposed Pahlavi ruler and its recognition of the apartheid Israeli regime. 

Presently, discussions are underway between the two regional heavyweights regarding the potential reopening of their respective embassies in Iraq.

Nevertheless, there are reports indicating that the Israeli regime is exerting pressure on Egypt to refrain from re-establishing ties with Iran.

According to Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth daily newspaper, Israeli delegates have purportedly undertaken covert visits to Cairo in an attempt to dissuade the government of President el-Sisi from reciprocating steps to restore diplomatic relations with Iran.

 

Moving Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai

According to a write up published in The Jerusalem Post, moving Palestinians to the Sinai Peninsula has been termed the ideal solution to resolve Gaza crisis.

The writer believes, the Sinai Peninsula comprises one of the most suitable places on Earth to provide the people of Gaza with hope and a peaceful future.

The 365 km² Gaza Strip has remained a flash point in Israel-Egypt relations since its conquest by the Egyptian Army in 1948 as part of Egypt’s failed attempt to annihilate the newly-born State of Israel.

Egypt invaded Israel along two main axes, reaching the outskirts of Jerusalem and only 20 km. short of Tel Aviv, but the Israel Defense Forces pushed off this offensive. These battles generated a wave of refugees that found haven in the Gaza Strip, which remained under Egyptian military control until 1967.

Since 1948, and up until the current partial release of some of the Israeli babies, children, and women taken hostage by Hamas terrorists, the Egyptians have been significantly involved in the politics and economy of the Gaza Strip.

The Egyptians locked the residents of Gaza and the refugees of the 1948 War in the Gaza Strip, and, with the backing of the United Nations, still deny them the right to rebuild their lives in all Arab countries, including in the adjacent Sinai Peninsula of Egypt. This harsh policy was one of the major and long-term catalysts for the intensifying human stagnation of now circa 1.8 million inhabitants within the Strip.

According to the writer, beyond the abduction, mutilation, burning, rape, and murder of 1,200 Israelis and other nationals, the Hamas terrorist invasion of Israel on October 07 destroyed many Israeli agricultural villages. This barbarian murder-fest led the IDF to conquer the northern Gaza Strip and the Hamas-infested Gaza metropolis as part of Israel’s goal to destroy Hamas terror capabilities. As civilians were ordered to move south, the southern Gaza Strip became a haven for most of Gaza’s residents.

The battles in the northern Strip generated significant damage and destruction of buildings utilized by Hamas. Damage to the immense terror-tunnel system further destabilized the metropolis’s substrate. Major portions of the metropolis are considerably incapacitated and cannot be simply fixed. Rather, the damaged and destroyed structures must be completely torn down. The tunneled – and consequently exploded and bulldozed – soil must undergo extensive environmental and engineering rehabilitation.

In other words, the metropolis has to be fully evacuated, redesigned, monitored, and only then rebuilt to provide habitable and economic conducive conditions. Such an effort requires unique expertise and immense funding and will take considerable time that cannot be calculated.

Therefore, the war is anticipated to end with a unique humanitarian challenge of how to construct a better future for the people of Gaza.

Since Israel’s unconditional turnover of the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority in 2005, Gazans have completely failed to generate a productive Palestinian-administered entity, despite generous economic support, mainly from America, Europe, Qatar, and the UN.

This may be associated with the coupled effect of an intrinsic hatred-focused, fanatic, anti-Israel Islamic culture, and links with Iran, along with limited geographical conditions, poor natural and human resources, and a high population density.

This situation raises serious doubts that any type of future self-sustainable efforts will yield a stable and free socioeconomic culture and promising future in the Strip. A creative solution is needed ASAP.

The adjoining Sinai Peninsula, in essence, is the exact opposite of the Gaza Strip, comprising one of the most suitable places on Earth to provide the people of Gaza with hope and a peaceful future.

Covering 60,000 km² (165 times larger than the Strip), its population is barely around one-third of Gaza’s, making it one of the emptiest places in the Mediterranean region.

Although under Egyptian governance, it is an integral geographic-geological continuation of Israel and the Gaza Strip, with which it shares a 200 km. and 14 km. long border, respectively.

Therefore, the geographic setting of the Mediterranean coast of northern Sinai is also a physical continuation of the Gaza Strip with ample, shallow groundwater in the northeast.

Due to the intensive smuggling of arms to Hamas via Sinai in the last few years, Egypt fully destroyed the residential infrastructure bordering the Gaza Strip, and expelled the local population.

In northwestern Sinai, Egypt has invested immensely in building for agriculture, including freshwater canals.

Furthermore, Egypt has surprisingly wired Sinai with excellent infrastructure, overshooting its civilian and industrial needs. These include an array of paved roads and highways connected by tunnels beneath the Suez Canal to mainland Egypt.

The facts demonstrate that the northern Sinai Peninsula is an ideal location to develop a spacious resettlement for the people of Gaza. Its open areas, along with the existing infrastructure, can easily host large-scale development projects that, if led by the Chinese and supported by local labor, for example, can easily mature in just one to two years.

Firm American and international guidance lined with financial and operative support can surely pave the way to this creative and prosperous solution and jointly help Egypt’s dire demographic and economic situation that is challenging its political authority.

Israel will also be cooperative in sharing its hi-tech-oriented agricultural capabilities with Egypt as it did following the Peace Treaty in the early 1980s.

If Egypt bravely chooses to change its rigid, old-fashioned policy of keeping Palestinian Gazans in constant distress and consents to such an endeavor, its geopolitical gains will be threefold: It will be hailed by the international community as the savior of the dire plight of Gazans; it will strengthen its status as a leader of the Arab world; and it will finally fulfill its 30+-year-old plan to settle the Sinai and strengthen its control of this zone.

However, history has taught us that Gazans, despite their complaints about their humanitarian situation, may object towards genuine rehabilitation programs. This stubbornness substantially relies on their desire to destroy Israel, which repeatedly comes at their own expense.

The ongoing obliteration of Hamas, which terrorizes Palestinian Authority officials and many Gaza residents, may pave the way to the emergence of the proposed Sinai solution, if presented in a wise and discrete manner that conforms to the Middle East mentality.

 

 

Ceasefire in southern Gaza agreed

Egypt, Israel and the United States have agreed to a ceasefire in southern Gaza beginning at 0600 GMT coinciding with the re-opening of the Rafah border crossing on Monday.

The sources said the ceasefire would last for several hours but they were not clear on the exact duration. They also said the three countries had agreed that Rafah would be open until 1400 GMT on Monday as a one-day initial re-opening.

Rafah, which is on the border between Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and Hamas-governed Gaza, is the only crossing into the territory not controlled by Israel.

Reuters images showed aid trucks from Egyptian NGOs in the Sinai town of Al-Arish on Monday morning, waiting for permission to make the hours-long trip to Rafah.

Assistance that had come from several countries and organizations has been stalled in al-Arish awaiting an agreement on the delivery of aid and evacuation of foreign nationals from Gaza, which US Secretary of State Blinken said had been achieved after a visit to Cairo.

Asked for confirmation, the Israeli military and the US Embassy in Israel had no immediate comment.

Salama Marouf, head of the Hamas government media office, said they have received no confirmation from the Egyptian side about intentions to open the crossing.

 

Saudi Crown Prince affirms unwavering support for Palestinian legitimate rights

In a series of diplomatic discussions, Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed Saudi Arabia's unwavering support for the Palestinian people's legitimate rights during a phone call with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday.

The leaders engaged in a comprehensive dialogue, addressing the military escalation in Gaza and its adjacent areas. They expressed deep concern over the deteriorating situation, recognizing the threat it poses to civilian lives and regional security and stability.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman underscored the Kingdom's proactive efforts to collaborate with international and regional stakeholders, aiming to bring a swift end to the ongoing escalation and prevent its further proliferation in the region.

He emphasized the significance of upholding international humanitarian law and refraining from targeting civilians.

Moreover, the Crown Prince reiterated Saudi Arabia's commitment to standing by the Palestinian people in their pursuit of legitimate rights, advocating for a dignified life, the realization of hopes and aspirations, and the achievement of a just and lasting peace.

President Mahmoud Abbas expressed heartfelt gratitude to the Kingdom's leadership, acknowledging its steadfast stance and dedicated efforts in supporting the Palestinian people and their just cause.

In a separate conversation, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein of Jordan delved into the escalating situation in Gaza, reiterating concerns about its impact on civilian lives and regional stability.

Additionally, in talks with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt, the leaders concurred on the imperative to intensify both international and regional efforts to halt the escalation in Gaza and its surroundings, emphasizing the need to prevent its expansion in the broader region.

 

Developing countries facing debt problem

According to Reuters, the persistent and damaging debt problems gripping a number of developing nations will be a core topic during the G20 summit in Delhi next month. Following is the recap of economies in the countries currently facing problems:

ZAMBIA

Zambia was the first African country to default during the COVID-19 pandemic and after a long-awaited burst of progress in recent months finally looks to be closing in on a repair plan.

In June, it clinched a US$6.3 billion debt rework deal with the Paris Club creditor nations and its other big bilateral lender China. The details are still being worked on, but the government also hopes to reach a deal in the coming months with the international funds that hold its unpaid sovereign bonds.

The progress has also been cheered as a success for the struggling G20 Common Framework initiative, which was set up during the pandemic to try to streamline debt restructurings but has been hard to make work in practice.

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka announced a debt overhaul plan at the end of June and has continued to make progress since, albeit not everywhere.

Nearly all holders of its domestic, dollar-denominated Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) agreed to exchange their bonds into five new Sri Lankan rupee-dominated notes that will mature between 2025 and 2033.

Another part of the domestic debt plan has faced delays, though, with a key deadline on a Treasury bond exchange delayed three times and now set for Septemer 11, 2023.

Central bank chief Nandalal Weerasinghe has said the country's big foreign creditors such as India and China are awaiting the conclusion of the domestic debt operation before continuing discussions.

He said negotiations will be held in parallel with the first review of its US$2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program due from 14-27 September. Failure to complete the domestic debt overhaul by then could result in delays both in terms of IMF disbursements and talks with creditors.

GHANA

Ghana defaulted on most of its external debt at the end of last year. It is the fourth country to seek a rework under the Common Framework and is aiming to reduce its international debt payments by US$10.5 billion over the next three years.

Its progress has been relatively swift compared to the likes of Zambia. The government recently agreed to tackle roughly US$4 billion of its domestic debt via a pension fund debt swap operation and a dollar-denominated bonds exchange.

It has sent a restructuring plan to its official sector - wealthier government - creditors and its finance minister has said he also expects to reach a deal with the country's bondholders by the end of the year.

The funds know it will require them to write off money but hope it could also include a recovery instrument that would mean Ghana pays back more of that money over time if its economy recovers quickly.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan needs upwards of $22 billion to service external debt and pay other bills for fiscal year 2024.

A caretaker administration is in charge until an election that must take place by November. Inflation and interest rates are at historic highs, and it is struggling to rebuild from devastating 2022 floods.

In June 2023, Pakistan reached an 11th-hour deal with the IMF for a US$3 billion bailout, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE followed with US$2 billion and US$1 billion cash infusions.

Reserves, which had fallen to US$3.5 billion, had rebounded to US$7.8 billion by late August. Observers say it could have enough to make it to the elections but there are major questions about how long it will be able to avoid default without huge support.

TUNISIA

The North African nation, reeling from multiple hits since a 2011 revolution, is facing a full-blown economic crisis.

Most debt is internal but foreign loan repayments are due later this year and credit ratings agencies have said Tunisia could default.

President Kais Saied has slammed the terms required to unlock US$1.9 billion from the IMF as diktats that he will not meet.

Saudi Arabia pledged a US$400 million soft loan, and a US$100 million grant, but the tourism-dependent economy continues to grapple with shortages in imported food and medicine. The European Union has offered about US$1.1 billion (one billion euros)in support but that appears to be mostly pegged to the IMF deal or reforms.

EGYPT

Egypt remains another of the big countries seen as at risk of falling into trouble. North Africa's largest economy has around US$100 billion of hard currency - mainly dollar-denominated - debt to pay over the next five years, including a meaty US$3.3 billion bond next year and the government spends over 40% of its revenues just on debt interest payments.

Cairo has a US$3 billion IMF program and has devalued the pound by roughly 50% since February 2022. But a privatization plan is still on the go-slow and last month it veered away from its IMF plan by saying it would keep subsidized electricity prices unchanged until January.

Some of its government bonds are changing hands at half their face value and analysts think a key factor in whether it can get back on track is the amount of support wealthy Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia provide going forward.

EL SALVADOR

El Salvador has shifted from doom and default to bond market darling, propelled by two surprise debt buybacks and the appointment of a former IMF official as adviser to the finance ministry.

In summer 2022, its 2025 eurobond fell to just under 27 cents on the dollar, weighed down by high debt service costs and worries over its financing plans and fiscal policies.

The same bond traded at 91.50 cents on August 31, and its debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 77% in December 2022, the lowest since 2019, and is forecast to drop another percentage point this year, according to Refinitiv data.

It’s now relatively light debt repayment schedule through 2027, and the sky-high popularity of President Nayib Bukele, has assuaged fears the country could default.

KENYA

The East African nation's public debt stands at nearly 70% of GDP, according to the World Bank, putting it at high risk of debt distress.

President William Ruto's government has moderated spending and proposed a raft of tax hikes, assuaging some concerns of an imminent default.

The African Development Bank is in talks with Kenya over US$80.6 million to help it plug its financing gaps this year, and it is also discussing budgetary support from the World Bank.

But concerns remain; Ruto's political opposition has opposed many of his tax hikes, and protests have forced him to pause some reforms, such as fuel subsidy cuts.

UKRAINE

Ukraine froze debt payments in 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion. It has said it is likely to decide early next year whether to try to extend that agreement or begin looking at potentially more complex alternatives.

Top institutions estimate the post-war rebuild cost will be at least one trillion euros, and the IMF estimates Ukraine needs $3-$4 billion a month to keep the country running.

If the war with Russia is not won or at least eased to a much lower intensity by next year, its debt restructuring dilemma will also have to factor in the November 2024 US Presidential election and the degree of support it would receive should Donald Trump or another Republican candidate win office.

LEBANON

Lebanon has been in default since 2020 with few signs its problems will be resolved any time some.

The IMF has issued stark warnings, but one bit of progress in the last couple of months has been a proposal by the central bank to lift the long-time peg on the country's local currency,

 

US backs Chevron in dispute with Cyprus

According to Reuters, Washington has weighed into a dispute between Cyprus and international companies led by Chevron over how to develop a giant offshore gas field, backing the US Company’s plan to link it to neighbouring Egypt.

The Chevron-led consortium proposed connecting the Aphrodite gas field via a subsea pipeline and existing infrastructure to Egypt, where the gas can be sold in the domestic market or liquefied and shipped to Europe, which has largely been cut off from Russian supplies.

Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou confirmed that the government had rejected the latest plan, which omitted a previous proposal to build a floating gas processing plant at the field which lies 160 kilometers (100 miles) southeast of Cyprus.

"The modification has been rejected. The expectation of the Republic of Cyprus is that the consortium honours what was mutually agreed by the parties in 2019," Papanastasiou told Reuters.

The partners have engaged in a new round of talks with the Cypriot government, Israel's NewMed, which is a partner in the Aphrodite field, said earlier this week.

The United States is backing Chevron's plans, which it believes will help to get gas to the market faster and with a lower carbon footprint as it does not involve building large infrastructure.

"Connecting Aphrodite to Egypt will help them with peak domestic consumption in the summer, add stability and reduce tensions in the region, and allow exports for Europe," the US source said.

The Biden administration is making the distinction between expensive and unnecessary infrastructure projects and less work-intensive interconnections that are necessary as economies transition to cleaner forms of energy, the source said.

Aphrodite, discovered more than a decade ago, holds an estimated 124 billion cubic meters of gas. Chevron is a partner in the field with NewMed and Shell.

Its development would give a vital boost to the Eastern Mediterranean gas basin which has attracted huge investment in recent years, particularly in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine as Europe sought to replace Russian fossil fuel.

According to two industry sources, Nicosia objected to Chevron's plans to drill three production wells rather than five and avoid the construction of a floating production unit above the field.

A Chevron spokesperson said the consortium was working to progress the Aphrodite project.

"We have submitted a modified development plan to the Cypriot Government, which we hope will lead to the development of the Aphrodite field and delivery of gas to Egyptian and global markets via existing LNG (liquefied natural gas) plants on the north coast of Egypt."

"We believe it is important that Aphrodite is expeditiously developed for the benefit of Cyprus, the Eastern Mediterranean region and European and other international markets," Chevron said.  

 

 

 

 

Expansion of BRICS: What are the economic implications?

In late August it was announced that from 2024, the BRICS—a political grouping that currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—will admit six new members: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, the UAE and Ethiopia.

The eleven countries combined represent around 45% of the planet’s population, over 40% of world oil production and roughly a third of global GDP. The BRICS average economic growth rate is likely to be notably above the global average. That said, the G7’s GDP is still substantially larger at market prices, and should remain so over the medium term.

The group’s key economic institution, the New Development Bank (NDB), is still tiny in comparison to other multilateral lenders. The Bank has financed projects worth around US$33 billion since 2015; in contrast, the World Bank alone committed around US$50 billion each year over the same period.

Other overarching economic structures are lacking, and a BRICS trade deal seems difficult to fathom given members’ vastly different stages of development and policy priorities.

Internal geopolitical disputes could further complicate economic rapprochement between members: Egypt and Ethiopia are at loggerheads over a dam on the Nile River, relations between Iran and its Gulf neighbors are still strained, and there are tensions between India and China over their shared Himalayan border and Indian restrictions on Chinese imports and technology.

The expansion of the BRICS could encourage greater political overtures and financial generosity from the G7 towards emerging markets going forward; the G20 summit later this year will be key to watch, with the UN calling on US$500 billion of annual financing from wealthy nations.

More countries are likely to join the BRICS in the coming years, as current members—particularly China and Russia—look to bolster an alternative to the G7-led world order.

BRICS members will increasingly conduct intra-member trade in local currencies to reduce dependence on the dollar, with the yuan and rupee set to be major beneficiaries.

That said, the US dollar will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future - incumbency, dollar liquidity, the strength of the US economy, and the reliability of the US government as a debt issuer are key advantages. As for the BRICS grouping as a whole, it is likely to remain more of a political than an economic force.

On the BRICS’ prospects, EIU analysts said, “The BRICS group will not become a solid construction, regardless of how many bricks are added to the wall, and it will continue to face internal tensions and divisions. However, the expansion will bolster its geopolitical significance and its combined economic power, and the organization will continue to evolve. The relatively trouble-free and productive BRICS summit will enhance South Africa’s standing without damaging its relations with key Western partners.”

On the future of the dollar, ING analysts said, “Until international issuers and investors are happy to issue and hold international debt in non-dollar currencies – and the take-up of CNY Panda bonds has been very slow indeed – we suspect this will be a decade-long progression to a multi-polar world, a world in which perhaps the dollar, the euro and the renminbi become the dominant currencies in the Americas, Europe and Asia respectively.”

Courtesy: Focus Economics

Iran's BRICS membership a nail in the coffin of United States sanctions

Vahid Jalalzadeh, Chairman of the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said, “Iran’s membership in BRICS is a nail in the coffin of the unilateral sanctions of the United States.”

“One of the main features of the new world order is the strengthening and expansion of the front of resistance against the domination system, the decline of America and the transfer of knowledge and wealth from the West to the East,” he told state news agency IRNA. 

Jalalzadeh added, “BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are definitely a front against the excesses of the domination system, particularly America.”

Jalalzadeh emphasized that BRICS, Shanghai, and Eurasia are the code names for the failure of Western sanctions.

“The neutralization of sanctions in the era of the formation of the new global geometry means the era of entering regional and international agreements, coalitions and unions. And this means the end of unilateralism,” he continued.

Hossein Qaribi, Iranian Ambassador to Brazil, has also said that Iran’s BRICS membership was the result of months of intense diplomatic efforts by the Ebrahim Raisi administration.

“Iran's membership in the BRICS group is a happy event that is the result of months of efforts and intensive diplomatic measures by the 13th government, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Iranian embassies in five member countries of that group,” Qaribi said in remarks to IRNA. 

He added, “Practically, the policy of strengthening multilateralism in the international system is better realized by advancing the goals of BRICS. In addition, it should be noted that the capacities that exist in the Islamic Republic of Iran will also be available to this group, and with development-oriented planning, it will lead to an increase in business interactions among its members.”

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has lauded the bloc for deciding to move towards expansion. “In addition to strengthening multilateralism, the great success of accepting Iran’s membership in BRICS can provide the basis for the pursuit of goals and the development of other macro strategies of the government in the implementation of dynamic diplomacy,” the top diplomat wrote on X.

During a BRICS summit held in Johannesburg, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the BRICS member states have agreed to admit Iran, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE and Saudi Arabia as full members. That means the bloc currently consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will double in the number of members as of the beginning of next year.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi who had traveled to South Africa to attend the summit called the advantages of Iran's membership in the bloc “history-making”. 

“Strategic cooperation between Iran and BRICS members in the fields of transit, energy, and trade, will support the BRICS global agenda. The Islamic Republic of Iran strongly supports the successful efforts of BRICS in the path of de-dollarization of economic relations between members, the use of national currencies, as well as the strengthening of BRICS mechanisms for payment and financial settlement,” Raisi told the BRICS summit.

 

BRICS getting bigger to reshuffle world order

Major emerging market nations invited top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, along with Iran, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates, to join their bloc in an ambitious push to expand global influence. The new BRICS members bring together several of the largest energy producers with the developing world’s biggest consumers, suddenly giving the bloc outsized economic clout. With most of the world’s energy trade taking place in dollars, the expansion could also enhance its ability to push more trade to alternative currencies.

In deciding in favour of an expansion - the bloc's first in 13 years - BRICS leaders left the door open to future enlargement as dozens more countries voiced interest in joining a grouping they hope can level the global playing field.

The expansion adds economic heft to BRICS, whose current members are China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. It could also amplify its declared ambition to become a champion of the Global South.

The long-standing tensions could linger between members who want to forge the grouping into a counterweight to the West - notably China, Russia and now Iran - and those that continue to nurture close ties to the United States and Europe.

"This membership expansion is historic," Chinese President Xi Jinping, the bloc's most stalwart proponent of enlargement, said. "It shows the determination of BRICS countries for unity and cooperation with the broader developing countries."

Originally an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill in 2001, the bloc was founded as an informal four-nation club in 2009 and added South Africa a year later in its only previous expansion.

The six new candidates will formally become members on January 01, 2024, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said when he named the countries during a three-day leaders' summit he is hosting in Johannesburg.

"BRICS has embarked on a new chapter in its effort to build a world that is fair, a world that is just, a world that is also inclusive and prosperous," Ramaphosa said.

"We have consensus on the first phase of this expansion process and other phases will follow."

The countries invited to join reflect individual BRICS members' desires to bring allies into the club.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had vocally lobbied for neighbour Argentina's inclusion while Egypt has close commercial ties with Russia and India.

The entry of oil powers Saudi Arabia and UAE highlights their drift away from the United States' orbit and ambition to become global heavyweights in their own right.

Russia and Iran have found common cause in their shared struggle against US-led sanctions and diplomatic isolation, with their economic ties deepening in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

"BRICS is not competing with anyone," Russia's Vladimir Putin, who is attending the summit remotely due to an international warrant for alleged war crimes, said on Thursday.

"But it's also obvious that this process of the emerging of a new world order still has fierce opponents."

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi celebrated his country's BRICS invitation with a swipe at Washington, saying on Iranian television network Al Alam that the expansion shows that the unilateral approach is on the way to decay.

Beijing is close to Ethiopia and the country's inclusion also speaks to South Africa's desire to amplify Africa's voice in global affairs.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres attended Thursday's expansion announcement, reflecting the bloc's growing influence. He echoed BRICS' longstanding calls for reforms of the UN Security Council, International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

"Today's global governance structures reflect yesterday's world," he said. "For multilateral institutions to remain truly universal, they must reform to reflect today's power and economic realities."

BRICS countries have economies that are vastly different in scale and governments with often divergent foreign policy goals, a complicating factor for the bloc's consensus decision-making model.

Though home to about 40% of the world's population and a quarter of global gross domestic product, internal divisions have long hobbled BRICS ambitions of becoming a major player on the world stage. It has long been criticized for failing to live up to its grand ambitions.

The regularly repeated desire of its member states to wean themselves off the dollar has never materialized. Its most concrete achievement, the New Development Bank, is now struggling in the face of sanctions against founding shareholder Russia.

Bloc heavyweight China has long called for an expansion of BRICS as it seeks to challenge Western dominance, a strategy shared by Russia.

Other BRICS members support fostering the creation of a multi-polar global order. But Brazil and India have both also been forging closer ties with the West.

Brazil's Lula has rejected the idea that the bloc should seek to rival the United States and Group of Seven wealthy economies. However, as he departed South Africa on Thursday, he said he saw no contradiction in bringing in Iran - a historical arch-foe of Washington - if it advanced the cause of the developing world.

"We can't deny the geopolitical importance of Iran and other countries that will join BRICS. ... What matters is not the person who governs but the importance of the country."

 

Egypt and Jordan affirm full support for Palestinians

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah have affirmed their full support for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and urged Israel to fulfill its obligations in accordance with international law and to honor all agreements signed with the Palestinians.

Finding a suitable solution to the Palestinian cause and achieving a just and comprehensive peace is a strategic option and a regional and international requirement, the three leaders said in a joint communiqué after the tripartite summit in the Egyptian city of El Alamein.

The summit was held amid ongoing talk about a possible normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In their communiqué, Sisi, Abdullah, and Abbas did not make any direct reference to reports about US efforts to broker a deal between Jerusalem and Riyadh. They stressed their “adherence” to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which stipulates that the Arab states would normalize their relations with Israel only after a full Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines and the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

In the past, the Palestinian leadership accused the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan of violating the terms of the Arab Peace Initiative by reaching separate normalization agreements with Israel.

Last weekend, Saudi Arabia said it had named its ambassador to Jordan, Nayef al-Sudairi, as Ambassador Extraordinary to the State of Palestine and Consul-General in Jerusalem.

Some Palestinians are convinced that the move is linked to US efforts to broker a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. They view the appointment of the envoy as part of a Saudi attempt to placate the Palestinians ahead of a normalization agreement with Israel.

At Monday’s summit, Sisi, Abdullah, and Abbas lashed out at Israel over its policies and measures against the Palestinians.

In their statement, the three leaders called on Israel to halt military incursions into Palestinian cities in the West Bank, saying it was undermining the ability of the PA government and security forces to carry out their duties.

They urged Israel to release Palestinian tax revenues it had seized because of payments made by the PA to security prisoners and the families of those killed while carrying out attacks against Israelis.

The three leaders condemned “the ongoing and escalating Israeli illegal practices” against the Palestinians and warned that Israel’s actions were “undermining the two-state solution and instigating violence and chaos.”

They called for halting Israeli settlement activities and emphasized the necessity of ending settler “terrorism.”

They also denounced Israel for violating the legal and historical status quo in Jerusalem and its holy sites and demanded an end to the “storming” of al-Aqsa Mosque, a reference to visits by Jews to the Temple Mount.

According to the communiqué, Sisi and Abbas emphasized the importance of the Hashemite custodianship of Jerusalem’s holy sites, including the Haram al-Sharif/Noble Sanctuary (Temple Mount).

Israel, the Palestinians, and several Arab countries recognize Jordan’s role in administering the holy sites.

In recent years, unconfirmed reports in Israeli and Arab media outlets said the Saudis were also seeking a role in administering the Islamic sites in Jerusalem, a move that would end Jordan’s exclusive and historical status in the city.

 

Egypt seeking funds for purchase of wheat

Egypt, one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, is in talks with the UAE for a US$400 million financing to help it purchase the commodity.

The funding would come from the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, via tranches of US$100 million, Egyptian Supply Minister Ali El-Mosilhy told Bloomberg. He didn’t say when a deal is likely to be finalized. 

It would be a boost for Egypt, facing a dire shortage of foreign exchange and a cost-of-living crisis, partly as a result of soaring food prices.

Earlier this month, Egypt announced that Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ would invest US$800 million in companies in its economy. Qatar has also looked bolster the nation’s economy.

El-Mosilhy criticized Russia’s exit from the Black Sea grain-export initiative and said it will continue to import Ukrainian wheat even after the collapse of the United Nations-backed agreement this week.

“We are not pleased with the Russian withdrawal from the UN grain-export deal,” El-Mosilhy said. He urged Moscow to reconsider its position.

Egypt’s economy has been negatively affected by an increase in grain prices since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. 

While global benchmark wheat futures had begun to moderate, they’ve surged this week after Russia terminated the export pact. 

The pact that had allowed Ukraine's grain to be exported safely over the Black Sea for the past year expired on Monday when Russia withdrew and warned that it could not ensure ship safety, a move that the United Nations said would strike a blow to people in need everywhere.

Moscow has said that if demands for increased exports of its own grain and fertilizer were met, the Black Sea pact might be revived.

Russia said it would not prolong the grain pact after accusing the West of failing to fulfill a parallel memorandum aimed to facilitate Russia's agricultural and fertilizer exports.

The International Monetary Fund has said Russia's withdrawal from the agreement allowing Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea weakens the global food security outlook and risks increasing food prices, particularly in low-income countries.

 

China to invest in Suez Canal Economic Zone

Chinese companies have pledged to invest over US$3 billion in new Suez-based projects.

Egypt's Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) secured the investments from Chinese companies active in chemical, textile and apparel, power, pipes, and iron and steel industries. The investment agreements and commitments were secured during the visit by SCZone Chairman, Walid Gamal El-Din.

Focus of the deals appears to be the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone (SETC), an industrial estate near the city of Suez, jointly established by the governments of China and Egypt, for the purposes of inviting Chinese companies to set up industries, as part of the Belt and Road project.

The SETC was built by the Tianjin Economic-Technological Development Area (TEDA). The TEDA Suez zone was created in 2008 and extended in 2016 during a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt.

Last week, the SCZone delegation held discussions with Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co, regarding a proposed US$2 billion ductile cast iron pipe manufacturing plant in the Sokhna Industrial Zone, Zawya said.

“The first phase of the project will have an annual production capacity of 250,000 tons of ductile iron pipes, which is expected to increase to 500,000 tons per year in the second phase,” it said.

Shandong Tianyi Company planned to establish bromine and caustic soda production plants in TEDA Suez, with a total investment of $310 million.

“The bromine production plant, valued at US$110 million, will cover an area of 270,000 square meters and have an annual production capacity of 140,000 tons,” it said.

Several other projects in textiles, power generation, apparel and fashion and other industries, worth tens of millions of dollars, to be located in Suez, Sokhna and Abu Khalifa were also announced.

While in China, Gamal El-Dien also met with officials from the China-Africa Development Fund, to discuss investments in the pharmaceutical, automotive, and green fuel industries. His counterparts expressed readiness to finance Chinese investment projects in SCZone, including those related to green hydrogen.

 

History of Israel-Arab Normalization

Israel currently has official diplomatic ties with five Arab countries namely Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.

Egypt was the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with Israel, in 1979, in return for an Israeli withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula it occupied in 1967.

Jordan followed in 1994, a year after Israel and the PLO recognized each other via the Oslo Accords. Progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace enabled Israel to establish ties with other Arab states, but these were cut after the outbreak of the second intifada in 2000.

In 2020, following a gradual process, the Abraham Accords were signed, leading the UAE and Bahrain to normalize ties with Israel, with Sudan indicating it would follow suit when domestic conditions allow.

Also in 2020, Morocco re-established the official ties it had with Israel in the 1990s.

In 2022, Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, and the United States established the Negev Forum to advance multilateral cooperation.

Israel for decades had unofficial and secret relations with most Arab states. Israel-Arab relations traditionally have a strong security dimension, but also increasingly include civilian, economic, and political cooperation.

In 2002, the Arab League adopted the API, which promised Israel normal relations with the entire Arab world in return for peace with the Palestinians.

The API did not generate progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Currently, Saudi Arabia is seeking to update the API and possibly have it become a key part of a package of incentives for peace.

Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected the need to move forward with the Palestinians as a condition for progress with Arab countries. While he seeks to advance ties with Arab states to bypass the Palestinian issue, others in Israel and the international community seek to leverage normalization to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace.

US lawmakers to introduce bill to combat normalization with Syria

A bipartisan group of US Lawmakers plans to introduce a bill on Thursday intended to bar the US government from recognizing Bashar al-Assad as Syria's president and enhance Washington's ability to impose sanctions in a warning to other countries normalizing relations with Assad.

The bill would prohibit the US federal government from recognizing or normalizing relations with any government in Syria led by Assad, who is under US sanctions, and expands on the Caesar Act, a US law that imposed a tough round of sanctions on Syria in 2020.

The bill comes after Arab states turned the page on years of confrontation with Assad on Sunday by letting Syria back into the Arab League, a milestone in his regional rehabilitation even as the West continues to shun him after years of civil war.

Regional countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others - had for years supported anti-Assad rebels, but Syria's army - backed by Iran, Russia and allied paramilitary groups - regained most of the country. The icy ties with Assad began to thaw more quickly after devastating earthquakes in Syria and Turkey in February 2023.

The United States has said it will not normalize ties with Assad and its sanctions remain in full effect.

The bill will be introduced by House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, Congressman Joe Wilson, the chair of the Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia; and Democrats Steve Cohen and Vicente Gonzalez, among others, a senior congressional staffer who worked on the bill told Reuters.

The legislation is a warning to Turkey and Arab countries that if they engage with Assad's government, they could face severe consequences, the staffer, said speaking on condition of anonymity.

"The readmission of Syria to the Arab League really infuriated members and made clear the need to quickly act to send a signal," they said.

The bill's provisions include a requirement for an annual strategy from the secretary of state for five years on countering normalization with Assad's government, including a list of diplomatic meetings held between Syria's government and Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and others.

The bill would also clarify the applicability of US sanctions on Syrian Arab Airlines and another carrier, Cham Wings. Under the proposed bill, countries that allow the airlines to land would face sanctions against that airport, the staffer said.

If passed, the bill would also require a review of transactions, including donations over US$50,000 in areas of Syria held by Assad's government by anyone in Turkey, the UAE, Egypt and several other countries.

 

Arab foreign ministers affirm priority of resolving Syrian crisis

The Arab foreign ministers affirmed on Monday the priority of resolving Syria's crisis through a political settlement that would safeguard its sovereignty and meet the people's aspirations.

During the meeting held in Amman with the participation of the foreign ministers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt, they called for creating proper conditions for safe and voluntary return of the Syrian refugees to their homeland.

Additionally, they called to rid Syria of terrorism, withdrawing all illegitimate foreign forces from the country and achieving national conciliation.

The foreign ministers also exchanged views on the efforts exerted to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis, which would contribute to ending all its repercussions and preserving its unity, security, stability, and Arab identity.

This is in addition to returning it to its Arab surroundings, in a way that achieves prosperity for the Syrian people.

At the end of the meeting, they confirmed that there will be more meetings at this level in the future to work on attaining the objectives outlined in the Security Council Resolution 2254.

It is noteworthy that the meeting held in Amman comes as a follow-up to a gathering that comprised foreign ministers of the GCC states with their peers from Jordan, Iraq and Egypt on Syria, which was held in Saudi Arabia on April 14, 2023.