Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Friday 22 March 2024

US-led UN resolution on Gaza ceasefire vetoed

The United Nations Security Council on Friday turned down a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and an Israel-Hamas hostage deal after Russia and China vetoed the measure proposed by the United States.

The resolution, on which Algeria also voted no and Guyana abstained, called for an immediate and sustained ceasefire lasting roughly six weeks that would protect civilians and allow for the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Eleven of the 15 council members voted for the resolution, but the Russia and China vetoes stopped its passage.

The council will meet at 1400 GMT on Saturday to vote on an alternative resolution drafted by elected members of the Security Council, diplomats said.

That resolution demands an immediate ceasefire for the current Muslim holy month of Ramadan, the release of all hostages and an expanded flow of humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

The draft does not include provisions supporting ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire - an element of the US resolution. Washington has been working with Qatar and Egypt to try to broker a deal.

Friday was the first time Washington had backed a text that came up for a vote with the word "ceasefire" in it during the war in Gaza, reflecting a toughening of the Biden administration's stance toward Israel.

Earlier in the five-month-old war, the US was averse to the word ceasefire and vetoed measures that included calls for an immediate ceasefire.

"The vast majority of this council voted in favor of this resolution, but unfortunately Russia and China decided to exercise its veto," US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the Security Council.

She accused Russia and China of vetoing the resolution for cynical and petty reasons. She said they opposed it simply because it was penned by the US and criticized both countries for not condemning Hamas's October 07 attack on Israel.

"For all the fiery rhetoric, we all know that Russia and China are not doing anything diplomatically to advance a lasting peace or to meaningfully contribute to the humanitarian response effort," she told the council after the vote.

The US has wanted any Security Council support for a ceasefire to be linked to the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Palestinian Hamas fighters killed 1,200 people and took 253 captive in their Oct. 7 attack, Israel has said.

Nearly 32,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's subsequent offensive in the Gaza Strip, according to health authorities in the Hamas-ruled enclave.

Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, said the US-led resolution was exceedingly politicized and contained an effective green light for Israel to mount a military operation in Rafah, a city on the southern tip of the Gaza Strip where more than half of the enclave's 2.3 million residents have been sheltering in makeshift tents.

"This would free the hands of Israel and it would result in all of Gaza and its entire population having to face destruction, devastation, or expulsion," Nebenzia told the meeting.

China's UN ambassador, Zhang Jun, criticized the text proposed by the US for not clearly stating its opposition to a planned military operation by Israel in Rafah, which he said could lead to severe consequences. He said Beijing also supported the alternative.

But Thomas-Greenfield said that measure fell short.

"In its current form, that text fails to support sensitive diplomacy in the region. Worse ... it could actually give Hamas an excuse to walk away from the deal on the table," she said.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that his country would work with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates to persuade Russia and China to back yet another alternative resolution at the United Nations for a ceasefire in Gaza.

 

 

Gold price tops US$2,200 an ounce

Gold finally surpassed US$2,200 an ounce for the first time on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve indicated that it would press ahead with three rate cuts in 2024 despite elevated inflation.

Spot gold set a new record of US$2,222.39 during the early hours of trading, before retreating to US$2,206.10. US gold futures soared 2.4% to US$2,208.20.

Gold’s latest rally, which started mid-February, is underpinned by longstanding tailwinds including heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank buying. During March 2024 alone, the safe-haven metal hit new highs on five occasions.

Its rapid ascent, according to Bloomberg columnists has surprised many seasoned market observers, as there hasn’t been a clear catalyst. What has been partially driving bullion is expectations for looser monetary policy in the United States, and that has now been reaffirmed by the Fed.

On Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell continued to highlight officials would like to see more evidence that prices are coming down, but it’s still likely in most people’s view that we will achieve that confidence and there will be rate cuts, he said.

“What we saw last night was the green light really for gold traders to come back in,” said Chris Weston, head of research for Pepperstone Group.

“The Fed have said that right now they’re tolerant of the inflation that we’ve seen, they’re tolerant that the labor market strength is not going to be the impediment,” Weston told Bloomberg.

Speculation around the timing of the Fed’s long-anticipated pivot may have provided the trigger for recent gains, with data showing that traders boosted their net long positions on gold in the week through March 05 by the most since 2019.

The metal stands to benefit even more when US interest rates actually do come down, as bullion-backed exchange traded funds look likely to increase their holdings, according to UBS Group.

On the geopolitical front, there are a number of risks boosting gold’s allure as a haven asset, Russia appears to be gaining the upper hand in its war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict continues unabated and has led to a re-routing of global shipping, while the US presidential election at later this year could prove massively consequential for markets.

Chinese buying has also underpinned prices. As well as the central bank, people have been stocking up on coins, gold bars and jewelry to safeguard their wealth from a year long property downturn and losses in the country’s stock market.

Monday 18 March 2024

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Tuesday 12 March 2024

Iran-China-Russia naval drill in Indian Ocean

The navies of Iran, China, and Russia have initiated joint drills in the northern tip of the Indian Ocean, marking their fifth collaborative military exercise in recent years. Naval delegations from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, and South Africa are present as the observers of the exercises.

Chinese and Russian naval forces have entered Iranian territorial waters to participate in the primary stage of the naval war game, named Maritime Security Belt 2024, near the Gulf of Oman. This international exercise, involving Iran, China, and Russia, underscores a commitment to peace and security in the region.

During a joint press conference with Russian and Chinese commanders, Second Flotilla Admiral Mustafa Taj al-Dini emphasized the strategic significance of this being the fifth joint exercise among the involved countries. He highlighted the objectives of this joint naval drill, including bolstering maritime trade security, combating piracy and terrorism, and fostering cooperation among the participating nations.

According to Taj al-Dini, this security-focused exercise, covering an expansive area of 17,000 square kilometers, aims to address multifaceted challenges. Despite the approaching festivities for the Persian New Year, the spokesperson underscored that security efforts remain steadfast.

Notably, naval units from Iran, China, and Russia, comprising destroyers and missile cruisers, actively contribute to this collaborative initiative.

Iranian naval forces, along with their Chinese and Russian counterparts, have conducted several military drills in recent years to enhance the security and stability of international maritime trade. They have also collaborated in countering piracy and maritime terrorism, exchanging information in naval rescue and relief operations, as well as sharing operational and tactical experiences.

Russia's defense ministry stated that the exercises, running through Friday and involving warships and aviation, would focus on the protection of maritime economic activity.

The Russian defence ministry said its Pacific fleet, led by the Varyag guided missile cruiser and the Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate, had arrived at Iran’s Chabahar port on Monday to take part in the joint drill.

China’s defense ministry mentioned that the drills aimed at jointly maintaining regional maritime security. China sent its 45th escort task force, consisting of the guided-missile destroyer Urumqi, guided-missile frigate Linyi, and the comprehensive supply ship Dongpinghu, to the exercise.

Last month, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Iranian Navy, announced Tehran's plan to hold joint drills with Beijing and Moscow before the end of March, aimed at ensuring regional security.

Providing insights into the strategic maritime efforts, the rear admiral revealed that the mission to safeguard Iran's shipping lines in international waters commenced in 2009 under the direct command of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

Emphasizing the unwavering commitment of the Army's strategic naval force, he highlighted their continuous role in ensuring the security of the nation's economic hub in both the Gulf of Aden and the northern Indian Ocean.

The admiral further highlighted the expansion of the security mission beyond securing shipping lines in the Red Sea over the past four years. Currently, the comprehensive management of protection for Iran's shipping lines extends from the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal.

The Iranian Navy conducts routine exercises throughout the year. In recent years, Iranian military experts and technicians have made significant progress in developing and manufacturing a diverse range of military equipment, achieving self-sufficiency for the armed forces in the military industry.

In March 2023, Iranian, Chinese, and Russian naval forces staged the 2023 Marine Security Belt war game in the northern parts of the Indian Ocean, marking the fourth joint exercise in recent years. Alongside Chinese and Russian fleets, more than 10 Iranian Navy vessels and three helicopters reportedly took part.

 Courtesy Tehran Times

Wednesday 6 March 2024

Pak US relationship a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’

Soon after the results started pouring in following the February 08 general elections in Pakistan, several members of the US Congress, as well as the US State Department, expressed concern over alleged interference in the polls, with the former even calling on President Joe Biden not to recognize the incoming government until a transparent investigation into the allegations. I invite the readers to read a blog posted as back as on May 03, 2022.

In today’s blog I am daring to negate an impression created by an article written by Ms Maleeha Lodi (Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom and United Nations) and published in Pakistan’s leading English newspaper. I am taking an extreme position by saying, “Pakistan’s foreign policy has always remained subservient to the US mantra”.

Please allow me to begin with the U2 incident, when the US pilot-less planes used to takeoff from a Pakistani airbase near Peshawar for spying USSR. At one point the situation got so nasty that USSR threatened to attack Pakistan.

Badaber: A secret US intelligence facility in Pakistan

In July 1958, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower requested permission from the Pakistani Prime Minister Feroze Khan Noon for the United States to establish a secret intelligence facility in Pakistan and for the U-2 spy plane to fly from Pakistan. The U-2 flew at altitudes that could not be reached by Soviet fighter jets of the era; it was believed to be beyond the reach of Soviet missiles as well. A facility established in Badaber (Peshawar Air Station), 10 miles (16 km) from Peshawar, was a cover for a major communications intercept operation run by the United States National Security Agency (NSA). Badaber was an excellent location because of its proximity to Soviet central Asia. This enabled the monitoring of missile test sites, key infrastructure and communications. The U-2 "spy-in-the-sky" was allowed to use the Pakistan Air Force section of Peshawar Airport to gain vital photo intelligence in an era before satellite observation.

I would also invite the readers to recall last-minute cancellation of the visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and going to the United States around the same dates.

This also reminds me the US ditching Pakistan at the time of creation of Bangladesh. State-owned Pakistani media kept on telling the US feet could arrive any minute, which never arrived. This creates an impression that the US supported creation of Bangladesh.

Now coming to Afghan proxy war, Pakistan played two opposite roles: first it supported Taliban in averting USSR attack in a quest to reach warm water and then supporting US/Nato troops in crushing the same Taliban.

Please also allow me to share conspiracy theory, “Pakistan and United States have enjoyed cordial relationships due military rule”. The readers are invited to read details of Ayub, Zia and Musharraf eras.

I am also inclined to share another public opinion, The US-Pakistan relationship is a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’.

It is often said, ‘Pakistan is a frontline allay of United States in war against terrorism’. Some analysts interpret it ‘Pakistan is partner in proxy wars but when it comes to Investment and trade India is the US darling’.

I tend to subscribe to this theory based on my follow up of the construction of Chabahar Port in Iran. Despite economic sanctions on Iran, India invested millions of dollars in the construction of this port and allied road and rail links to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asian states. Please also note that Pakistan was not allowed to import oil from Iran during this period.

The United States was more than smart in facilitating India in the construction of Chabahar Port and allied infrastructure. The prime US motive was to create an alternative access to land-locked Afghanistan, extended to Central Asian states.

But the real objective was to undermine Pakistan’s importance in Afghan transit trade. There is no denying to the fact that Pakistan still offers cost effective and shortest route to Afghanistan.

Before I conclude let me say, “Pakistan under the influence of the United States has not recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan”. While Afghans are facing shortage of food and medicines, the two countries are not allowed to trade in local currencies; the United States has not released foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan.

 

Wednesday 14 February 2024

Pakistan: Instability coming down the road

Pakistan’s elections held on February 08, were meant to bring stability to the country after almost two years of turmoil but the outcome of the polls has deepened political divisions. It will also bring more instability to a nuclear-armed, 240-million strong country already shaky at best in a critically important geostrategic region.

In the months leading up to the long-awaited elections, the judiciary and the military pursued a dual track strategy: ensure that the highly popular former prime minister, Imran Khan, is never able to run for political office again and reinvigorate the political fortunes of Nawaz Sharif, the three-time former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).

Following his loss of power in a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April 2022, Khan was relentlessly pursued by the judiciary which eventually handed him three sentences for corruption, leaking state secrets and an illegal marriage, for a total of 24 years. He was barred from politics and sent to gaol. His Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI) was disbanded, its electoral symbol (the cricket bat) outlawed, and its members banned from running as PTI members.

Nawaz Sharif—a convicted corrupt politician who’s had an ambivalent relationship with the army for 40 years, was brought back from a four-year self-exile in London as an alternative to Khan. Soon after Nawaz’s return to Pakistan the corruption charges he faced were dropped and his life ban from politics was lifted.

The path was now clear for his smooth return to power. However, what was meant to be a walk in the park for Nawaz and the PML(N) turned out very differently on election day. The millions of pro-Imran Khan supporters were not interested in singing off the score sheet handed over to them.

Even with all the measures taken to ensure there was no level playing field, and the ballot stuffing at a number of polling stations, the PML(N), was only able to win the second largest number of seats (75).

The former PTI members—running as independents—won the largest number of seats, 93 of the 266 up for grabs. The independents’ total seats could increase as they are contesting the result of over a dozen others they claim have been stolen from them. Nevertheless, Nawaz declared victory, and will try—with great difficulty, to form a coalition government with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of the late Benazir Bhutto. The only bond between the PML(N) and the PPP is that their hatred of each other is slightly less than their hatred of the PTI.

International reaction to these elections, including from the US, the UK and the EU, was negative, with several countries calling for investigations into the allegations of vote-tempering and pre-poll obstructions. The Australian government also made it clear that that it was concerned that ‘the Pakistani people were restricted in their choice, since not all political parties were allowed to contest these elections’.

Notwithstanding the evidence to the contrary, much of it posted on social media platforms even though mobile internet connections were restricted, the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, commended the Electoral Commission for running such a successful election and stressed the significance of free and unhindered participation by Pakistani people in exercising their right to vote.

Similarly, the caretaker prime minister, Anwaarul Haq Kakar, believed that the ‘nation had accepted the results’ and the country needed to move on. Moreover, he brushed aside international criticism of the elections as ‘not that big a deal’.

Despite the compromised nature of these polls, a PML(N)-led coalition government is the most likely—but not certain—outcome of the elections. According to the latest reports, it would be led by Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz’s younger brother who was prime minister after Khan was ousted in April 2022.

The real power will still be held behind the scenes by Nawaz Sharif. Given the fragility of the coalition, which will include smaller parties and non-PTI-leaning independents, this will be a weak government with little legitimacy. This is unfortunate given that whoever is prime minister will have to make some particularly difficult decisions on the economy, handle adroitly the country’s foreign relations, and manage a growing terrorist threat.

Pakistan is an economic mess, with 40% of the population living under the poverty line, an inflation rate that has hit 30%, a rupee whose value has halved in 10 years, and barely enough foreign exchange to cover the cost of imports for a month or so.

The country avoided economic meltdown in August 2023 by securing a standby arrangement of US$3 billion with the IMF. However, this bailout runs out in March and a new one—the 24th in Pakistan’s history—will need to be negotiated.

The IMF will undoubtedly demand that the government implement more austerity measures, including continuing to reduce subsidies on essential commodities. Imposing draconian economic measures on an already struggling population will not be easy, particularly given Nawaz’s lack of popular support. We can expect serious social unrest down the road.

A Shehbaz-led government will also have to deal with the growing terrorist threat, mainly but not solely from the Afghanistan-based Pakistan Taliban (TTP), which has continued to increase since the Taliban took over in neighbouring Afghanistan in August 2021. Pakistan has repeatedly demanded that the Taliban government of Afghanistan cease to support the TTP. But the Taliban isn’t about to turn on the TTP, an organisation with which it has deep ideological, operational, historical and tribal links. Kabul also knows that the Pakistani military doesn’t want to escalate this issue by pursuing the TTP unto Afghan territory. Moreover, given Pakistan’s poor fiscal position, it cannot afford another expensive military operation. Accordingly, Pakistan-Afghan relations will probably continue to be frozen, and the scourge of terrorism to fester.

This will not be well received by the leaders in Beijing who persistently press Pakistan to do more against the terrorists roaming the countryside regularly killing Chinese workers and officials working on the US$60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  Pakistan already has some 10,000 security personnel dedicated solely to the protection of Chinese interests in Pakistan. Still, relations with China will continue on an even keel or even deepen. It was after all under Nawaz’s third stint (2013-2018), that CPEC started.

Pakistanis can expect Indo-Pakistan relations to possibly improve. The personal dynamics between Nawaz and Indian PM Narendra Modi have been good in the past. Nawaz attended Modi’s 2014 inauguration and Modi visited Nawaz in Lahore in December 2015—the first visit by an Indian leader in more than a decade. But while Nawaz would probably be interested in improving relations with Delhi, it was the perception that he was warming up too much to the Indians when he was in power which critically contributed to the military orchestrating his downfall in 2017. Shehbaz, under the guidance of Nawaz, is unlikely to make the same mistake.

Despite Washington’s public criticism of Pakistan’s seriously flawed election, the Biden administration is committed to ‘strengthening its security cooperation’ with Islamabad regardless as to who eventually becomes prime minister. Pakistan continues to be a valuable regional partner, being in a unique position to monitor developments in Afghanistan.

Finally, whilst Washington may have had issues with the election process, it will absolutely not miss Imran Khan, who repeatedly accused the US of having been instrumental, with the help of Pakistan’s military, in his downfall in April 2022.

US Secretary of State meeting with General Asim Munir—the man who effectively runs Pakistan, in Washington only a few weeks before the elections only reinforced this common perception in Pakistan. However, given Munir’s massive miscalculation on the elections, his days may well be numbered.

How long the next prime minister will last in office is anyone’s guess, but given that no prime minister has ever completed their term in Pakistan’s 75-year history, it is suspect the odds are poor that Shehbaz Sharif will break that tradition.

Courtesy: The Strategist

 

Wednesday 7 February 2024

What after China recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan?

On 30 January, 2024, President Xi Jinping provided further evidence that China formally recognizes the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. China’s recognition of the Taliban is its latest and most outrageous slap to the face of the so called democracies, led by United States, who have not recognized Taliban government as yet.

The opponents of Afghanistan have immediately termed this a dangerous international precedent and a morally moribund approach to international relations which puts selfish resource security concerns firmly ahead of human rights and global wellbeing as China’s primary philosophical approach to international affairs.

They say the event is representative of the fundamental reason strategic competition with China is so important. When distilled to its purist form, it is a protracted attritional duel between liberal democracy and authoritarian socialism that is quickly devolving into a slap fight.

It is alleged that prior to the Taliban’s resurgence, China maintained a cooperative relationship with the Afghan government, which included security collaboration against Uyghur militants.

They also say, following the Taliban’s takeover, China initiated engagement with the new regime, aiming to prevent terrorism from affecting its regional interests and to secure its investments, including those related to the Belt and Road Initiative.

The ethical dimensions of China’s interactions with the Taliban are seemingly complex, even on the surface. On one hand, China’s engagement is driven by security concerns and economic interests, particularly in mining and infrastructure. On the other hand, the Taliban’s lack of international recognition and domestic legitimacy raises questions about the long-term viability of these agreements.

China’s promise of economic and development support to the Taliban, in exchange for security assurances, reflects a strategic approach that prioritizes resource stability and the suppression of Uyghur militancy.

This is consistent with the broader narrative that China’s rise should not be feared, rather it should be welcomed as a blessing for global development and prosperity. In this regard, China’s policy towards Afghanistan could be described as clear and consistent with its approach to any country, emphasising non-interference and respect for sovereignty.

Critics of Taliban say, the practical aspects of its engagement with the Taliban present a moral quandary that is an affront to the global norms for free societies. The Taliban’s abuses of human rights are well recorded. Their suppression of women and girls, assault on freedom of speech, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and torture neatly reflect the same accusations levelled against China.

They say, it makes sense that China has added the Taliban to its collection of thugs, villains, and reprobates which are considered its closest allies.

President Xi receiving the credentials of the Taliban Ambassador to Beijing could, perhaps, be perceived as an arcane diplomatic tradition. The reality, however, is that in doing so the Chinese government has provided tacit recognition of the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan.

This has dreadful implications for the women, children, resistance fighters, and civil society activists who have all been brave enough to stay or unable to leave and who should all be afforded the same freedoms as me. It also sets the preconditions for the Chinese to pull levers of influence to broaden official recognition; levers established through debt dependencies that compromise the sovereign decision-making capacity of beholden nations. It is an anathema to how democracies want to act domestically and internationally.

There is an additional, not-so-hidden subtext at this stage of the slap fight between liberal democracy and autocratic socialism. China has taken a clumsy swing at the face of every country that tried and failed to bring sustainable democracy to Afghanistan for 20 years, and who dramatically left in ignominy just over two years ago. Sadly, it has landed as a low blow that could have dangerous consequences.

 

 

Saturday 27 January 2024

Bangladesh: Apparel export to EU falls 20%

Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the European Union (EU) in the 11 months, from January to November 2023, declined by 19.92% to 16.26 billion euro from 20.30 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Exporters said that the shipment of readymade garments to the EU market decreased in recent months due to the economic slowdown caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Global brands and buyers also placed orders in lower quantity due to the election time in Bangladesh but the orders started to increase after the national election in the country.

They hoped that the export to EU would rebound in the next quarter as buyers started to increase their orders thanks to easing inflation.

According to data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the readymade garment imports of the EU from the world in January-November 2023 fell by nearly 10% cent to 82.71 billion euro from 91.89 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Apparel imports of the EU from China in the first 11 months of 2023 declined by 21.42% to 21.15 billion euro from 26.92 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Although China remained the top apparel exporter to the EU in value, the Eurostat data showed that, in terms of volume, Bangladesh emerged as the highest knitwear exporter to the market in January-November 2023.

Bangladesh’s woven garment exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 were reported at 6.89 billion kilogram while those of China were 5.74 billion kilogram.

In value terms, Bangladesh’s knitwear exports to the EU in January-November of 2023 were reported at 9.94 billion euro against China’s exports of 10.48 billion euro during the period under review.

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Faruque Hassan recently said that apparel exports to the EU would come back on a positive track in the second quarter of 2024 as the inflation was coming down in the western countries and retail sales were getting better.

He also said that not only Bangladesh but also all the major RMG suppliers witnessed negative growth in the EU and the United States as the global demand decreased due to the economic turmoil.

Apparel imports of the EU from Turkey in January-November of 2023 declined by 13.42% to 9.20 billion euro from 10.62 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

India’s RMG exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 also fell by 11.87% to 3.81 billion euro from 4.33 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

As against this, apparel imports of the EU from Vietnam during January-November of 2023 grew by 2.48% to 3.49 billion euro from 3.40 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Wednesday 10 January 2024

China committed to work with Hasina

Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen has congratulated Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for successfully holding of the 12th general election and Awami League’s victory.

Ambassador Yao conveyed warm congratulations and best wishes from Chinese leaders to Hasina.

The Chinese ambassador called on Hasina at Ganabhaban and reaffirmed that Chinese leaders are committed to working with her to carry forward the long-established friendship, enhance mutual trust, and deepen practical cooperation – thereby uplift the China-Bangladesh strategic partnership of cooperation to a new height.

Ambassador Yao noted that both China and Bangladesh are at a critical stage of development and revitalization, and China would always be the most trustworthy partner and the most reliable friend of Bangladesh on the way to modernization.

Under the guidance of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, China and Bangladesh have set a model of mutual respect and win-win cooperation, said the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka.

China will firmly support Bangladesh in safeguarding national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and in opposing external interference, it said.

China will also support Bangladesh in maintaining unity and stability, and in playing a more active role in international and regional affairs, said the embassy.

China is committed to assisting Bangladesh in realizing the ‘Vision 2041’ and the dream of ‘Sonar Bangla,’ it said.

Ambassador Yao said that China is prepared to strengthen all-round cooperation with Bangladesh, and take due actions to facilitate and expand trade and investment with Bangladesh, promote high-quality China-Bangladesh Belt and Road cooperation, and make its own contribution to realizing ‘Smart Bangladesh’.

Tuesday 2 January 2024

Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia join BRICS

South Africa’s representative in the BRICS group of emerging economies, Anil Sooklal, has stated that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia join the bloc on January 01, 2024.

At the recent BRICS meeting, which took place in Durban, South Africa, early in December, Sooklal underlined —referring to the attendance of high-ranking representatives of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia— that the number of BRICS members will double with the addition of these nations.

He went on to add that the next conference of the economic group is scheduled for January 30, 2024 in Moscow, and it is expected that representatives of the new BRICS members will be there.

In a recent interview with Sputnik, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Ali Bagheri Kani, emphasized Iran's commitment, alongside other BRICS members, to actively pursue de-dollarization across various economic sectors.

Bagheri Kani highlighted the focus on trade, economic collaborations, and financial exchanges within this influential coalition of major economies. 

He emphasized ongoing initiatives and expressed optimism about reinforcing these efforts to swiftly achieve their objectives.

Bagheri Kani underscored the importance of collaborative efforts, signaling a unified commitment within BRICS to reducing dependency on the dollar.

He clarified that the initiatives aim to establish a framework fostering economic autonomy and resilience among member nations.

The BRICS group, initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, established in 2009, has emerged as a significant force shaping global economic discussions. 

Iran, alongside Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, has received an invitation to join this influential bloc. Their anticipated full membership, official from January 01, 2024, marks a substantial shift in the geopolitical landscape.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov, provided insights into BRICS countries accelerating the transition to national currencies. 

This strategic shift aligns with the shared vision of establishing a more balanced and resilient global economic framework, reducing vulnerabilities associated with a singular currency.

BRICS has announced plans to introduce a gold-backed currency for settling international trade payments, challenging the global reserve status of the US dollar. This decision adds momentum to the ongoing de-dollarization trend unfolding in the global economy.

Iran's active involvement in the BRICS initiative toward de-dollarization aligns with a broader trend among influential nations reshaping the global economic landscape.

As BRICS evolves, its concerted efforts toward economic autonomy become increasingly significant in shaping the future of international trade and finance.

Friday 29 December 2023

China: Dong Jun New Defense Minister

According to media reports, China has named Dong Jun as its new defense minister, two months after his predecessor was officially sacked. Dong, a former navy commander, takes over from Li Shangfu, who was last seen in public in August.

Dong's appointment was announced by China's top legislators at a Standing Committee meeting of the National People's Congress in Beijing on Friday.

The move follows a slew of dismissals of top military officials from the country's top posts earlier this year.

As well as Li, it included the removal of Qin Gang as foreign minister in July. No reasons were given for Li or Qin's dismissals. Both had been in their posts for only seven months respectively.

Further sackings took place this week too, with nine senior military officials removed from the Standing Committee on Friday.

Three executives at state-owned missile defense firms were also removed from Beijing's top political advisory body earlier this week.

Some analysts say this could indicate that a possible wider purge has taken place, targeting senior military leaders.

Dong was made commander of the navy in August 2021. His previous roles included serving as deputy commander of the Chinese military's Southern Theatre Command. Its area of operations includes the South China Sea - a disputed area, over large parts of which China claims sovereignty.

Dong's appointment comes after military personnel from China and the United States held their first high-level talks by phone in more than a year last week.

Relations between the two nations soured in 2022 after the then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Taiwan is self-ruled, but China sees it as a breakaway province that will eventually unite with it.

In recent months, there has been a rapprochement between China and the US, with Chinese President Xi Jinping meeting his counterpart Joe Biden in California in November and agreeing to resume military communications. The two had not spoken for more than a year.

 

Friday 15 December 2023

Saudi Arabia and Iran reaffirm full commitment to implement Beijing agreement

Saudi Arabia and Iran have reaffirmed their full commitment to implementing the Beijing Agreement, reports Saudi Gazette.

The first meeting of the Saudi-Chinese-Iranian Tripartite Committee concluded in Beijing on Friday. The meeting was held to follow up on the Beijing Agreement, under the chairmanship of Deng Li, the Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister. The Saudi delegation was led by Waleed Al-Khereiji, Deputy Foreign Minister, and the Iranian delegation by Dr. Ali Bagheri Kani, Deputy Foreign Minister.

The meeting reviewed the positive outcomes in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran in light of the Beijing Agreement, which was brokered by China last March. This included reopening embassies in Riyadh and Tehran, and the reciprocal visits and meetings of the two countries' foreign ministers.

Both Saudi Arabia and Iran expressed appreciation for China's significant role in this process and hosting the meeting.

The Chinese side confirmed its readiness to continue playing a constructive role and supporting Saudi and Iranian efforts to further enhance relations.

The three parties discussed various aspects of tripartite cooperation. They also expressed concern about the ongoing situation in the Gaza Strip as a threat to regional and international peace and security, emphasizing the need for an immediate cessation of military operations in Gaza, sustainable relief for civilians, and opposing the forced displacement of Palestinians. They agreed that any arrangement regarding the future of Palestine must reflect the will of the Palestinian people, supporting their right to establish their own state and determine their destiny.

The participants agreed to continue the meetings of the tripartite committee, with the next meeting scheduled for June 2024 in Saudi Arabia, following a gracious invitation from the Kingdom.

Thursday 14 December 2023

Can Gaza massacre bring change in Saudi foreign policy?

Prior to the October 07 operation by the Hamas resistance movement, many believed a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel was around the corner. 

The first time Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto leader acknowledged that the kingdom was moving towards normalization with Israel, was on September 20, 2023.

“Every day we get closer,” Mohammad Bin Salman said during an interview with Fox News. He added that such a pact would be the biggest historical deal since the Cold War. 

While Palestinians have vehemently condemned previous Arab-Israeli normalization agreements, labeling them as treacherous stabs in the back and betrayals to the Palestinian cause, Bin Salman argued that his deal with the Israelis would ease the life of the Palestinians. 

Since the 1980s, Saudi Arabia has been a vociferous advocate of the two-state solution. The Fahd Peace Plan in 1981 and the Arab Peace Initiative proposed by Riyadh in 2002, which also garnered endorsement in 2007 and 2017, both proposed that Israel become a state recognized by the Arab League, contingent upon Israel withdrawing its forces from the territories it occupied following the Six-Day War in 1967.

Additionally, the peace initiatives stipulated that Israel permit the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

"Despite the widespread embrace of the Saudi peace plan by the majority of Arab states, Israel's reaction to both Saudi initiatives was unfavorable. Israel insisted on maintaining Jerusalem as a unified capital and also rejected the right of return for Palestinian refugees, impacting hundreds of thousands of individuals," said Fuad al-Ibrahim, a seasoned expert on Saudi Arabia.

The expert further noted that with the passage of time and Israel's firm rejection of the two-state solution, Saudi Arabia appears to have become less enthusiastic about championing the Palestinian cause.

Instead, it seems to be prioritizing the advancement of its ties with Israel, potentially seeking stronger rapport with Washington.

"It seems that solidifying ties with Israel has become a prerequisite for maintaining a strong relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US government. MbS appears to be actively fostering this relationship with Israel to secure his political career," the expert remarked.

Reports indicate that as part of any potential normalization agreement with Israel, Saudi Arabia has pursued added concessions from Washington, such as a security pact, the sale of advanced weaponry, and assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program.

Allegedly, Riyadh has also requested that Israel uphold the possibility of a two-state solution, although given recent events and the situation in Gaza, it seems impossible to envision Israel endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Following Israel's aggressive actions against Palestinians in Gaza, Riyadh declared that the potential deal is on hold. Nonetheless, Israeli reports contend that Bin Salman has agreed to build on the US-mediated discussions aimed at normalizing relations with Israel once the conflict in Gaza is over. However, in light of shifting public opinion against the regime, it may prove challenging for the custodian of Islam's holiest sites to resume talks with Israeli officials.

"From my perspective, Operation Al-Aqsa Storm and Israel’s subsequent response to the offensive create obstacles for MbS and others to move forward with normalization with Israel, potentially endangering their credibility and political careers. Nevertheless, this may be a transient situation, contingent upon the political dynamics within Israel and the military landscape in Gaza and the broader region," emphasized al-Ibrahim.

Israel’s disproportionate response to the October 07 Hamas attack might have also served as a wake-up call for Saudi’s ruling family. 

That’s because Riyadh, like everyone else, noticed that Washington’s reaction to the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and its reaction to the slaughter of thousands of civilians in Gaza were undeniably disparate. After Western media outlets turned the screw on the Saudi prince for his involvement in the murder of a royal insider-turned-critic, who was killed at the kingdom's Istanbul consulate in 2018, Washington decided that backing its traditional West Asian ally in the particular case would be too costly.

US President Joe Biden promised to turn the kingdom into a pariah during his presidential campaign and proceeded to release a declassified US intelligence assessment, confirming the crown prince’s complicity in the killing. 

Though Bin Salman was able to avoid reckoning, his reputation was severely damaged as someone who liked to tout himself as a bold reformer pursuing new freedoms in the Saudi kingdom. 

Meanwhile, the US has shown unequivocal support for Israel’s killing campaign in Gaza, and refrained from bloviating its usual slogans of human rights to let Israel finish its stated mission of eradicating Hamas.

Washington seems willing to help the Israeli regime omit its opponents, not caring that it has to stand against the entire world to make it happen.  

The Khashoggi case was not an outlier. The US pulled the plug on Riyadh when Yemen’s Ansarullah movement decided to attack Saudi Arabia’s main oil processing facilities in 2019, making no concrete efforts whatsoever to help its ally prop up its security apparatus. That’s while the Democrats and Republicans are working in tandem to secure a US$14.5 billion military aid package for Israel, amid a budget deficit crisis in home. 

Gaza war brings Saudis closer to China
 
Saudi Arabia had already begun to buttress its relations with China after getting the stiff-arm from the US during the two instances. But the kingdom seems to have shifted even more towards Beijing’s orbit with the occurrence of the latest war in West Asia. 

A delegation of Arab and Muslim ministers, including Saudi Arabia’s Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, travelled to Beijing in November to push for an end to the war in Gaza with China’s aid. 

The move largely sidelined the US, which has been the target of scathing criticism from its Arab allies since the beginning of the latest wave of Israeli attacks on Gaza. 

Operation Al-Aqsa Storm seems to have defied previous predictions on many levels. Saudi Arabia may have to recalibrate its foreign policies, considering the amount of hate it may receive from Muslim masses across the world once it decides to move forward with normalization talks with Israel. It might also be less willing than before to count on the US as a reliable partner, given Washington’s penchant for leaving Saudi Arabia alone, when a crisis strikes.   

Courtesy: The Tehran Times

 

Sunday 10 December 2023

Bangladesh starts using Chinese crude oil handling facility

Bangladesh has started using a large crude oil receiving and offloading facility built by China. This allows the south Asian oil importer to significantly reduce the cost of crude oil handling, reports Reuters.

The single-point mooring facility at Chattogram port recently offloaded 82,000 tons (about 600,000 barrels) crude oil from a 100,000-ton tanker, said an official with state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corp (BPC).

The project is majority-funded by the Chinese government and build by a unit of Chinese state oil major CNPC.

Bangladesh, which imports most of its oil needs, does not have a deepwater port and has relied on small vessels to ship crude oil from large tankers parked outside ports.

That typically takes 11 days to offload a 100,000 ton oil cargo and the new facility cuts the offloading time to 48 hours, the official said.

An engineering unit of state major CNPC began in 2019 building the offloading facility financed by Export-Import Bank of China which offers preferential loans.

The new facility is expected to facilitate the planned expansion of Bangladesh's only refinery to 3 million tons per year (60,000 barrels per day) from 1.5 million tons per year currently.

 

 

 

Friday 8 December 2023

Chinese exports grow first time in six months

Chinese exports grew for the first time in six months in November, suggesting factories in the world's second-largest economy are attracting buyers through discount pricing to get over a prolonged slump in demand.

Mixed manufacturing data for November has kept alive calls for further policy support to shore up growth but also raised questions about whether predominantly negative sentiment-based surveys have masked improvements in conditions.

Exports grew 0.5% from a year earlier in November, customs data showed on Thursday, as compared to a 6.4% fall in October. Imports fell 0.6%, dashing forecasts for a 3.3% increase and swinging from a 3.0% jump last month.

"The improvement in exports is broadly in line with market expectations... sequential growth in China's exports in the past few months has strengthened," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "There are green shoots in other Asian countries' export data as well in recent months."

The Baltic Dry Index, a bellwether gauge of global trade, climbed to a three year high in November, supported by improved demand for industrial commodities, particularly from China.

South Korean exports, another gauge of the health of global trade, rose for a second monthin November, buoyed by chip exports, which snapped 15 months of declines.

Trade with China's major peers also painted a rosy picture, with exports to United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all up on October.

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) last week showed new export orders shrank for a ninth consecutive month, while a private sector survey highlighted the struggles of factory owners to attract overseas buyers for a fifth month.

"While the level of export volumes hit a fresh high, (they were) supported by exporters reducing prices," noted Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

"We doubt this robustness will persist," Huang cautioned, "as exporters won't be able to continue cutting prices for much longer."

Factory gate prices in the official PMI contracted for a second month in November, while input costs expanded for a fifth straight month.

Still, some analysts point to quicker-than-expected growth in the third quarter and a run of mostly upbeat data from October to argue that recent hard data paints a less gloomy picture of the economic health of the Asian giant than the sentiment-based surveys. The hard data also suggest the support measures trickling out of Beijing since June have had some effect, they say.

"The data shows overseas demand is stronger than we thought and domestic demand is weaker than we thought," said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. "The biggest export items are still electrical machinery and cars, so demand in Europe and Russia will have bolstered outbound shipments."

Analysts say it is too early to tell whether the recent policy support will be enough to shore up domestic demand and how sustainable any uptick in overseas demand is, with property, unemployment and weak household and business confidence threatening a sustainable rebound at home.

The International Monetary Fund in November upgraded its China growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 0.4% percentage points each, but that came from a lower base. And Moody's on Tuesday slapped a downgrade warning on China's A1 credit rating.

The Chinese markets seemed to reflect that cautiousness, with the yuan easing against the dollar after the data, while country's blue chip CSI300 stock index fell 0.44% and Hong Kong's Hang's Hang Seng lost 1.46%.

China's crude oil imports in November fell 9.2% year-on-year, the first annual decline since April as high inventory levels and poor manufacturing activity took their toll on demand for products such as diesel. But iron ore imports climbed slightly last month.

"While export demand improved, it is unclear if exports can contribute as a growth pillar into next year," Pinpoint Asset Management's Zhang warned.

"The European and United States economies are cooling. China still needs to depend on domestic demand as the main driver for growth in 2024."

 

Saturday 2 December 2023

Bangladesh Elections: Battle of Begums

For the last three decades, the politics of Bangladesh have been the story of the two biggest political parties – Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party – both headed by begums.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina leads the Awami League, a party founded by her father and Bangladesh’s first president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is headed by Khaleda Zia, the country’s first woman prime minister.

The electoral politics in Bangladesh since 1991 has mostly been a Hasina versus Zia story. The two have served as the prime minister, in phases, since the last two decades.

Just ahead of the 2018 polls, Khaleda Zia was convicted in corruption cases and barred from contesting elections. The BNP, which contested the election after forming an alliance, won just seven seats, while the Awami League won 302 of the 350 seats.

Khaleda Zia, who was sentenced to 17 years in prison in 2018, was released from jail in 2020 and is under house arrest. The Bangladesh government hasn’t allowed her to fly out for medical treatment despite claims that she was at high risk of death.

The elections of 2014 and 2018 have been called out by opposition parties and the western media for not being free and fair. The same aspersions are being cast this time too.

“The January 2024 election in Bangladesh is going to take place without any credible opposition and with the predictable outcome that Sheikh Hasina will win for the fourth consecutive term and the Awami League will form the government. Top leaders of the major opposition BNP are in jail and hundreds and thousands of their activists are in prison,” Mubashar Hasan, an author and expert on Bangladesh politics, tells IndiaToday.In.

“The BNP is set to boycott the election as it is demanding an election under a neutral caretaker government. However, Hasina dismissed that demand, and she is going to organize an election under her administration. Against this backdrop, the next election will push Bangladesh firmly into an authoritarian trajectory,” says Hasan, a post-doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, Norway.

The BNP is demanding that Sheikh Hasina step down and a caretaker government be installed for the general election to be a free and fair exercise. It has taken to the streets and Bangladesh has seen large-scale violent protests in recent weeks.

Some 10,000 people, mostly opposition activists, have been arrested since October 28. Thousands of grassroots leaders have fled to remote corners of the country to avoid arrest.

Mubashar Hasan says millions of people who support the BNP are feeling disenchanted and deprived of their political rights. “There is a real worry that radical Islamist and militant Islamist outfits could manipulate such mindsets to recruit would-be jihadists,” says the Bangladesh expert.

Sunday 26 November 2023

BRICS an evidence of failure of Modi Doctrine

According to, Alan Paul Varghese, an independent foreign affairs and geopolitical analyst based in New Delhi, it became clear that India continues its alignment with the West and Israel.

At the BRICS Plus extraordinary meeting hosted by South Africa on the conflicts in West Asia, it became clear that India continues its alignment with the West and Israel. While most of the members reiterated how Israel’s settler colonialism is the root cause of the conflict, Indian external affairs minister S. Jaishankar stood firm on blaming Hamas. He also stated that there can be no compromise to terrorism.

The Modi doctrine of diplomacy for the past nine years has stagnated India’s internal reputation and aspirations. Narendra Modi had skipped the online meeting due to the election campaigns in poll-bound states.

Though the officials stated that Modi was preoccupied with the campaign schedules, it is obvious that the outcome of the extraordinary meeting was anticipated.

In a close examination of recent diplomatic events by India, one can categorically see how the Modi doctrine is failing to capture its promised achievements.

While the economy is trailing and seldom benefitted through trade agreements, the only resort of Narendra Modi and Jaishankar was their self-projection as the leader of the Global South.

It is noteworthy that the extraordinary meeting succeeded the Voice of Global South Summit which had references to ongoing genocide in Palestine.

BRICS Plus comprising of mostly countries from the global south has proved that India is isolated for its stand on the Israel-Palestine issue. This isolation has a serious impact on the future geo-political prospects of India.

In evaluating the BRICS extraordinary meeting Iran urged the members to cease economic and military interactions with Israel. Vladimir Putin who attended the meeting criticized the US monopolization of mediation efforts. He urged the international community to unite in an effort to achieve a speedy de-escalation and a ceasefire in Gaza, as well as a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and added that the BRICS nations and regional actors could play a leading role in this process.

This can be a possible indication of Argentina’s disassociation from BRICS as Milie, a far-right economist is a proactive supporter of dollarizing the economy. 

Xi Jinping in his address said “The root cause of the Palestinian-Israeli situation is the fact that the right of the Palestinian people to statehood, their right to existence, and their right of return have long been ignored. It has been often reiterated that the only viable way to break the cycle of Palestinian-Israeli conflict lies in the two-state solution, in the restoration of the legitimate national rights of Palestine, and in the establishment of an independent State of Palestine. There can be no sustainable peace and security in the Middle East without a just solution to the question of Palestine. China calls for early convening of an international peace conference that is more authoritative to build international consensus for peace and work toward an early solution to the question of Palestine that is comprehensive, just, and sustainable.”

Saudi Arabia called for the cessation of arms and ammunition supplies to Israel.

Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milie condemned Hamas and demanded that Israel must adhere to international humanitarian law.

India had three diplomatic events before this extraordinary meeting. The ICC World Cup, Voice of Global South Summit, and ministerial dialogue between India and Australia.

During the World Cup Modi tried for cricket diplomacy by inviting his counterparts of the UK and Australia. Though Rishi Sunak expressed his readiness, due to some reasons he didn’t make his presence.

A sideline discussion with Anthony Albanese prior to the 2+2 ministerial dialogue was expected to boost talks in favour of India. But Albanese prioritized the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit over his QUAD partner.

The core weakness of Modi doctrine – neglecting the neighbours was visible in the failed innings of cricket diplomacy. In the interview given to The Hindu, Australian finance minister Penny Wong in reply to a question on whether India’s urge to take action against the Khalistan group was fulfilled, she said “ ….In relation to that I’d say is we respect your sovereignty. And we also are very clear about the line between peaceful protests, freedom of expression, and violence and vandalism.”

She has already clarified that the cooperation with India is for the balancing of power to counter China. The failed cricket diplomacy, Australia’s stand on the India-Canada standoff, and the statements by Wong proved how India has turned into a vassal of the Western countries under the Modi doctrine.

The current stand of the union government has isolated India in the Global South. Meanwhile, China is on the verge of emerging as the new dominant player in West Asian geopolitics. In the background of the Saudi-Iran peace deal that was brokered by China, Arab countries held direct talks with Beijing.

The officials holding meetings with China were from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Indonesia, Palestinian authorities, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, among others. Succeeding this South Africa, one of the strongest allies of China in the African continent hosted the virtual meeting of BRICS. Joining the dots, China is set to emerge in the role of mediator. Arab countries met Chinese diplomats to give a strong message to the USA too.

With the BRICS extraordinary meeting, China was able to successfully entrap the United States between the Zionist pressure for continuous aggression and the Middle East pressure for a ceasefire. One will not be mistaken to assume that China is working to diminish the outreach of US in West Asia.

Though, a joint declaration was not issued from the statements of various leaders except Jaishankar all others demanded a ceasefire and held Israel’s settler colonialism as the reason for the conflict. They endorsed the initiatives of Arab countries for establishing peace. South African parliament has voted for the closure of the Israel Embassy in Pretoria.

Undoubtedly India has trailed from its glorious legacy of being the voice of global south. China emphasized on the strategy that India forgot during the Modi era. In the past, India’s diplomacy focused on creating a New Economic World Order based on the liberation of Asian, African, and Latin American countries from neo-colonialism. The Non-Aligned Movement led by India comprised countries that gained independence from colonial regimes.

These were not powerful countries but had the potential of multiple dimensions. It was never the service or submission to power that helped India and NAM to develop their influences. China has built deep economic cooperation with African and Asian post-colonial countries than with the Western countries.

Bharath Karnad assessed Modi’s foreign policy as “bowing to the powerful and bullying the weak.” Such policies only result in the rupture of the country’s power.

In an article written by Rahul Nath Choudhary in East Asia Forum, he noted that the majority of free trade agreements signed by India failed to cater better results. In the period between 2017 and 2022, India’s exports to its FTA partners increased by 31%, while its imports increased by 82%. India’s FTA utilization remains very low at around 25%, while utilization for developed countries typically is 70% to 80%. 

The alternative for this – bilateral agreements and multilateral forums can be achieved if India could revamp another NAM based on multipolarity and de-dollarization. If the escalation continues in West Asia the future of India’s Middle East Corridor will be forever at a crossroad. Even a peace treaty based on the intervention of China and BRIC countries will bring the same fate.

 

Bangladesh Election: Awami League and others

According to reports, besides finalizing candidates for its own party and alliance partners, the ruling Awami League (AL) is considering providing some seats to parties willing to join the next election amid boycotts by major opposition parties.

The ruling party is now passing a busy time to select its own contestants while working with seat-sharing mechanisms to create opposition as the last date of filing nominations is approaching for the January 07, 2024 election.

Candidates for the election can submit nomination papers until November 30, 2023. The AL is likely to announce candidates for 300 constituencies on Sunday.

The AL-led alliance partners are now adamant about joining the election as a coalition and are now lobbying for more seats than the 11th parliamentary polls amid uncertainty over the participation of the main opposition BNP.

During the past general election held in 2018, the AL candidates contested for 261 seats and refrained from participating for 26 seats in favour of the Jatiya Party, five seats in favour of the Workers Party of Bangladesh, three each in favour of Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Jasod and Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh, and one each in favour of the Bangladesh Tarikat Federation and Jatiya Party.

“We are negotiating with AL for more nominations for our party in the forthcoming election. We are pressing for more seats than in the previous elections,” Workers Party president Rashed Khan Menon told New Age.

He said that there was time until the withdrawal of nomination papers to settle the issue.

AL joint general secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim said that they would declare the party candidates first and then think about nominating candidates from partners.

Asked about the AL’s negotiation with other lesser-known political parties, he said that it was part of the party’s policy.

“We believe that any registered political party can join an election if they want. Anyone can create alliances with anyone having similar ideologies,” he said.

He said that there might be many political strategies, and nothing could be guaranteed.

In addition to regular partners, some small parties, including the newly formed Trinamool BNP, are also lobbying the Awami League for seats in exchange for promising to join the polls.

Leaders of Trinamool BNP and some Islamic parties, including Islami Oikya Jote, Bangladesh Islami Font, Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan, Bangladesh Muslim League, Islamic Font Bangladesh, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Bangladesh Islami Oikya Jote, and Jamiat-e-Ulama-e-Islam Bangladesh, met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in recent days to discuss their respective election strategies.

Neither the prime minister’s office nor AL or the parties made any formal statements about the outcome of those meetings.

The allegation has it that the Trinamool BNP and Bangladesh Nationalist Movement, labelled as King’s Party by many, are negotiating with AL to become the opposition in the parliament.

The newly-formed alliance Jukta Front, led by the Kalyan Party, demanded a few seats, although AL insiders said they could end up with one seat for Kalyan chairman Syed Muhammad Ibrahim, a retired major general.

BNM, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Bangladesh Muslim League, and Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan may also get one seat, party insiders said.

Jasod, a partner of the Awami League, finalized 181 candidates, said the party general secretary, Shirin Akhter.

“We want to join the polls with the alliance. The alliance is not only for joining polls but also a place of ideology”, she added.

Shirin said that many parties were now willing to join their alliance, creating difficulties.

At a briefing on Friday, AL general secretary Obaidul Quader said that they were not thinking so seriously about the political alliance in terms of sharing seats.

“The party will not give nominations to anyone who cannot win an election and does not have popularity among the people”, he added.

AL presidium member Abdur Rahman told New Age that the party’s seat-sharing plan has no connection with BNP’s joining or boycotting elections.

‘Our leader, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, will give nominations to eligible candidates from the alliance. The party will give candidates for 300 seats, and then our leader will decide about other alliances,’ he said.

According to AL insiders, there is a possibility that its alliance partners may participate in the polls independently with their own party electoral symbols.

In that case, the AL may not give nominations to any of its aspirants in some constituencies to create a pathway for them to win.

The ruling AL has decided to participate in the 12th Jatiya Sangsad election in alliance in some constituencies and alone in other consultancies, AL office secretary Biplob Barua told reporters on October 18, 2023.

The AL-led alliance was formed in 2005 and came to power for three consecutive terms in 2009, 2014, and 2018.

The Workers Party, Jasod, Ganatantri Party, and Jatiya Party-JP are among the most active parties in the alliance.

Ganatantri Party president Shahadat Hossain hoped that prime minister Sheikh Hasina would make it suitable for all.

“The prime minister will meet with the alliance soon. We can tell it only after the meeting”, he added.

AL’s preparation for the forthcoming election is underway at a time when the leaders and activists of the main opposition BNP and its allies keep facing arrest, raids, prosecution, and conviction.

 

Wednesday 22 November 2023

Growing Chinese influence in Asia

The new economic framework of United States was intended to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. But the increasingly inward-looking Washington is no longer a champion of free trade, says S Rajaratnam School of International Studies’ Kevin Chen.

Three of the four Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) pillars may have been completed, but the inability of United States to see through the trade deal aimed at countering China’s economic influence is a strategic failure.

Hopes of an agreement were dashed last week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, even before former US president Donald Trump threatened to knock out the initiative if he were to return to power.

The IPEF was supposed to fill the policy gap left by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017.

It was styled as a novel economic agreement that provides a template for future economic engagement after years of rudderless drifting in the Indo-Pacific.

“You can count on the United States,” said Joe Biden at APEC. At its most basic level, the IPEF aimed to reassure America’s partners that it is still interested in a meaningful economic relationship with them. However, it has ostensibly fallen short of even that.

Southeast Asian observers should recognize that for domestic political reasons, Washington is no longer a champion of free trade. While they should continue engaging with the US on security issues, they should also be mindful that their region’s economic agenda is increasingly diverging from that of Washington’s.

The IPEF was challenging to negotiate from the outset, its demands and constraints a product of US domestic politics.

The lack of access to the US market removed a key incentive from the American negotiating toolkit. It was an effort to avoid a sensitive political issue: American public opinion has become generally less supportive of free trade due to the perception that cheap foreign goods are displacing American products, especially in key swing states and unions.

Believing that deep trade liberalization failed to protect American jobs and capacity, Biden’s administration bucked decades of free trade promotion to aggressively subsidise favoured industries in its competition with China. US$39 billion in manufacturing incentives was allocated under the CHIPS Act alongside US$370 billion in investments for clean energy under the Inflation Reduction Act to grow the US industrial base.

Meanwhile, labour and environmental standards were always a hard sell to partners such as Vietnam and Indonesia. These US demands tapped on these growing sentiments against free trade.

A common rallying call was that trade deals need to ensure strong labour and anti-dumping standards so American workers can compete on a level playing field – not just with Chinese workers, but with supply chains linked to China as well.

Yet, the IPEF was still vulnerable to the domestic forces it sought to appease. As a White House initiative, the IPEF was unlikely to garner financial support from a split Congress and could also be cancelled with a simple executive order by a future president.

Negotiators likely understood that the odds were stacked against them. The timeframe to complete IPEF negotiations was also relatively short at two years, compared to seven years for the TPP.