Asif Ali Zardari: The Prince of Guile

Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), has secured his second term as President of Pakistan, defeating Mahmood Khan Achakzai, the candidate backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Sunni Ittehad Council.

In the presidential election, Zardari garnered an overwhelming majority, securing 411 votes, while Achakzai managed to bag 181 votes, only one vote was rejected. To know more about the charismatic as well as mysterious character of Zardari read the details published in Dawn newspaper on February 23, 2024.

Even his rivals acknowledge that Zardari is a deal-maker par excellence. He has been written off and made a comeback so many times that his doubters have simply stopped trying.

You have heard the trope: Asif Ali Zardari is Machiavelli’s Il Principe personified. While that most certainly isn’t an endearment, it is perhaps not much of an insult either. Whether one accepts it or not, Zardari seems to have cracked the code to surviving and succeeding in the swampy wastelands of Pakistani politics. There are very few who can claim to have his guile, and none who can claim his political acumen.

Call it the politics of ‘mufahimat’ (understanding and reconciliation) or the politics of ‘mufadaat’ (interests and advanta­ges), the Zardari brand of deal-making has ensured that his star continues to shine.

“Chaos isn’t a pit,” go the memorable lines from Game of Thrones, one of the most popular TV show of our times. “Chaos is a ladder. Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again. The fall breaks them.”

“And some are given a chance to climb. They refuse, they cling to the realm or the gods or love. Illusions. Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is.”

In the chaos of Pakistan’s politics, none has climbed the ladder higher or more successfully than Zardari. He has been thrown off again and again, yet refused to let his falls break him.

He has seized every opportunity to play the game, and won it with an unlikely hand too many times.

The young Zardari was a notorious playboy who often ended up in brawls at Karachi’s casinos. He was known for his then-famous father, Hakim Ali Zardari, who had been elected as an MNA on a PPP ticket to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s first assembly.

The two were said to be close at one time, but fell out at some stage, following which the elder Zardari had exited the PPP. At one time, both father and son supported the anti-Bhutto alliance.

The Zardaris were otherwise regarded as a liberal Sindhi family who ran a successful entertainment business centred around their two cinemas. The son, at one point, had also tried his hand in the construction business, but was not successful.

The family’s name shot to national prominence when, through a common family connection, the Zardari scion’s marriage was arranged with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s daughter and protégé, the late Benazir Bhutto. Benazir was well-loved and internationally known: it was natural for the spotlight to shine on her soon-to-be-husband. On the night of their wedding, the two celebrated with thousands of well-wishers, most of them common folk, at Lyari’s Kakri Ground.

The event seemed as political as it was personal, and it catapulted Zardari onto the national stage.

The very next year, in 1988, Ms Bhutto was elected Pakistan’s first woman prime minister.  Zardari landed in Prime Minister House, and quickly went to work turning around his personal fortunes. It wasn’t long before Ms Bhutto’s first government was mired in scandals of all sha­des and sizes. It was during this time that Zardari earned the title of ‘Mr 10 percent’.

The axe would fall as soon as Ms Bhutto’s government was dismissed. Among the numerous cases filed against Zardari was one involving abduction for extortion. Zardari was accused of abducting a businessman, strapping a bomb to him, and sending him to the bank to withdraw a large sum of money from his account. The case ran in an anti-terrorism court between 1990 and 1993. Nothing ever came of it.

It was during Ms Bhutto’s next government that Zardari finally started being regarded as one of the most powerful men in the country. He got his own office within PM House, and was even made a federal minister. After that government was also dismissed, he was arrested immediately. A slew of new cases were filed against him, and Zardari once again found himself in jail. Once again, he was never convicted.

Zardari’s by then lengthy record and the length of time he had spent behind bars, without ever being convicted, added to his legend. He quickly came to be regarded as a shrewd wheeler-dealer who could get out of the stickiest situations without any fatal consequences.

It was Ms Bhutto’s tragic assassination that proved to be another turning point in Zardari’s fortunes. Though he had deferred to his spouse’s politics during her lifetime, the mantle of the PPP now fell to him.

His shrewd, calculating nature came to his aid, and benefit. Having decided that General Musharraf needed to go, Zardari played a cunning hand, using the army chief at the time to get Musharraf evicted from the presidency. No one at the time realized that Zardari actually wanted the job for himself.

The presidency solidified his grip on power. Although he buried Article 58(2)(b) of the Constitution as president, the PPP government continued to be run from the President House, with key decisions always in Zardari’s hands.

Although that term led to speculation that the PPP would be wiped out from nearly everywhere except Sindh, Zardari had prepared in advance with the 18th Amendment. It allowed him to keep a foot in the corridors of power while plotting his comeback for another time.

In recent years, with rival parties much larger than his own engaged in a long-running death match, Zardari did not take his eyes off the ladder.

After the 2024 elections, he has emerged as a kingmaker yet again. He has also managed to secure the maximum concessions for his own party (and himself), while giving very little to the PML-N in return.

Even his fiercest rivals begrudgingly acknowledge that Zardari is a deal-maker par excellence. He has been written off and made a comeback so many times that his doubters have simply stopped trying.

They say that “the only thing certain in life is death and taxes”; in Pakistan, it might as well be “death, taxes, and Zardari’s political relevance”.

The man has been derided as a Machiavellian leader, a shrewd and cunning politician interested only in self-enrichment. Yet, he is also the first democratically elected president to serve out a five-year tenure, and likely to become the only person to have held that office twice.

 

 

Another effort to strip Pakistan of its status as a major non-Nato ally of United States

A Republican lawmaker has moved a bill in the 117th Congress, seeking to strip Pakistan of its status as a major non-Nato ally of the United States. The Washington Times also pointed out that the bill, introduced drew little US media notice but triggered headlines in India, which … has long been critical of US-Pakistan relations. I am pleased to share with readers one of my blogs titled “US can’t afford to antagonize Pakistan” written as back as March 2013.

Over the years Pakistan has been fighting proxy US war in Afghanistan, not because of any love for Afghans or even to please the super power. It has been dragged into it and one could sum up the negotiations in before US assault on Afghanistan in one sentence ‘either you are with us or with our enemies’. At that time Pakistan had no option but to bow down as India was ready to join the US crusade. By that time Pakistan was also facing enduring economic sanctions for undertaking ‘nuclear test in 1998 and the probability was that refusal to join the war may also lead to air strikes on Pakistan’s sensitive installations.

On this Monday, Iranian Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari jointly inaugurated the work on the of 780-km Pakistani segment of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline in the Iranian port city of Chahbahar. The point to be noted is that in this city India is constructing a sea port which is also being linked with Central Asia via Afghanistan on which the United States has never raised any objection. In fact it may be said that India is doing this under the instructions of United States which wants an alternative route, other than through Pakistan.

As I have said earlier United States is once again following ‘carrot and stock policy’. Victoria Nuland of the US State Department on one hand warns Islamabad that its cooperation with Tehran falls under the Iran Sanctions Act, which means that Pakistan may face a ban on its transactions through American banks and that US military and other aid to Pakistan may be curtailed. She also plays the mantra that the US administration is willing to offer other alternatives, but little has been done to date.

Pakistan is rightly demanding its treatment at par with India, if it has to quite Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, this could be done on only one condition supply of nuclear technology for civilian use. The US has offered this to India in exchange for deserting the gas pipeline project.

This morning I got another inspiration after reading an article in eurasiareview quoting Russian analyst Maxim Minayev of the Civic Society Development Foundation on the matter. He said “I don’t think that Washington will cut its military aid to Islamabad as long as the Afghan campaign continues. The aid is meant to strengthen Pakistan’s defense capacity, particularly against radical Islamist groups. Speaking about Pakistani-US relations, one should bear in mind the potential of those who oversee them in the White House, namely US Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joseph Biden. I think that such players will manage to create additional opportunities for the White House in terms of minimizing the impact of the Pakistani-Iranian pipeline project”.

In his view impositions of sanctions may have the opposite effect. If Washington curtails political and military cooperation with Islamabad, the latter will move to expand ties with China. That’s not what the White House wants. There will be a general elections in Pakistan in May with the ruling Pakistan People’s Party facing a tough challenge from the Muslim League-Nawaz led by ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Both the parties are campaigning on the promises to ease the country’s energy crisis that has reduced its GDP growth rate to around 2.5%. Therefore, any party that wins majority or form coalition government, its first priority will be to resolve looming energy crisis.

In fact President Asif Ali Zardari has won hearts of Pakistanis once again by transferring control of Gwadar port to China and commencing work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Any effort by the United States to create hurdle in smooth working of these two projects could raise two popular demands: 1) Pakistan should immediately pull itself out of US proxy war and 2) stopping movement of Nato supplies through Pakistan with immediate effect. I hope the US government just can’t afford either one.

I also tend to agree with Russian Orientalist Sergei Druzhilovsky. He believes that the project will go ahead, no matter who wins the election. All the more so that Iran has already built its 900-km segment of the pipeline and hopes to extend it into India. For Pakistan, gas transit means handsome profits. The latter circumstance must have outweighed the alternatives proposed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Last May, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar made clear Islamabad would not yield to pressure over the pipeline.

Pakistan needs gas to keep its thermal power plants running and industries operating at optimum capacity utilization. Last but not the least Pakistan has a right to demand that the United States should first impose economic sanctions on India for buying oil from Iran, constructing Chahbahar seaport and rail and road network in Iran.

Pakistan: Limited Options for MQM

While Mian Nawaz Sharif, Chief of PML-N is anxious to assume charge of Prime Minister for the third time and create history, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) seems completely in quandary. It has not decided as yet whether to sit on opposition benches in National Assembly or become ‘me too’ by joining hands with PML-N.

The dissolution of Coordination Committee by founder and leader of MQM, Altaf Hussain and delay is announcement of new team is certainly making its vote bank uncomfortable, especially those who don’t wish to indulge in ‘confrontation’. Many in MQM believe that if something has to be done for the vote bank it can come only by maintaining amicable relationship with the ruling junta.

Many political pundits say, “Under the prevailing conditions, MQM is left with one option only that is to follow the decision of PPP, which has already nominated Khursheed Shah as leader of opposition in the National Assembly and also to become part of ruling junta in Sindh province”.

Political analysts also believe that if PTI, PPP, MQM and ANP join hands in National Assembly they can form a real strong opposition that will not allow Mian Sahib to do ‘whatever he wishes’. Certainly two of the biggest issues for Sindh and Karachi are: 1) overcoming energy crisis and 2) maintaining law and order.

PTI is likely to form government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwah and Dr. Arif Alvi elected on NA-250 from Karachi will have to play the role most prudently. Dr Alvi has emerged victorious after defeating MQM and JI candidates and now his responsibility should be to protect the rights of PTI vote bank.

Development of Sindh in general and Karachi in particular is linked with robust economic activities and ensuring peace. MQM is likely to learn a lesson from erosion in its vote bank and play the role of facilitator to peace and prosperity.

Historically, PML-N and MQM have hardly enjoyed enviable relationship. MQM leaders and workers have not forgotten Mian Sahib’s statement, “If we come in power we will establish Military Court to punish the culprits”. MQM rank and file still remembers operation undertaken during two of the past regimes of Mian Sahib.

It may be said that PPP has also undertaken operation against MQM in the past, but the two parties succeeded in maintaining good relationship as President Asif Ali Zardari and Governor Sindh Dr. Ishrat ul Ebad made the best effort to keep the coalition intact despite some difficult times.

With Pakistan facing internal and external threats all the political parties, which will enjoy double role, opposition in National Assembly and ruling junta at province levels must keep one point in mind that strengthening Pakistan should be their top priority. They should also remember that the leader of opposition is nothing less than the leader of the house.

Therefore, the logical choice of MQM should be to sit on opposition benches in National Assembly and join hands with PPP in Sindh. The earlier this decision is announced the better it will be for the MQM and its vote bank.

US pressurize Zardari to skip Iran visit

According to Financial Times, the visit of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to Tehran to seal a US$1.5 billion gas pipeline deal was unexpectedly cancelled due to extreme pressure from the United States. The news has been received in Pakistan with extreme disgust and some of the quarters term it an attack on country’s sovereignty.

Pakistanis are fully aware that Iran has offered hundreds of millions of dollars to finance the long-delayed gas pipeline and Iranian stance has offended United States. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president visited Islamabad last month to offer the financing. It was said to be just the first installment. There were also clear indications that if Pakistan show determination and seriously go ahead with this project it could get more money.

Reportedly President Zardari skipped his visit to Iran on some flimsy excuse. While President House official sources said the Iran trip was not on the itinerary but it looked all certain that he would stop over in Tehran on way to UK, France and Turkey as he was expected to sign some agreement pertaining to Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Earlier on Tuesday, Presidential Spokesman Farhatuallah Babar had confirmed to IRNA that President Zardari will visit Iran on December 7 for talks on bilateral and regional issues.

Many Pakistanis wanted President Zardari to go to Iran to sign this crucially important agreement. They are losing patience due to inordinate delay in implementation of the project primarily because of stiff US opposition. The agreement was to be inked between Tehran and Islamabad during the November visit to Pakistan by Iranian President Ahmadinejad but was differed due to text of contract not being ready.

It sounded like a big joke that the President met Malala Yousafzai, a 14 year old peace activist, who is being treated at Birmingham’s Queen Elizabeth Hospital in UK rather than stopping over in Iran. Critics termed the visit an unprecedented gesture by the president because he did not have any diplomatic engagements in the UK other than meeting Malala.

Pakistan is keen in going ahead with the project. Dr. Asim Hussain, Advisor to Prime Minister on Petroleum and Natural Resources has recently visited Tehran to finalize text. He met several Iranian officials, including President Ahmadinejad. A delegation of Iranian oil industry experts also visited Islamabad early in November to discuss the agreement on the payment of a $250mln loan to Pakistan to fund the project.

In addition to the investment, Iran is also due to build the Pakistani part of the multi-billion-dollar pipeline. A special team has been set up in the Iranian oil ministry to specify the method of investment and credit line for the pipeline on Pakistani soil.